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Pace of Recidivism in Illinois

NCJ Number
Date Published
April 1986
The Repeat Offender Project (ROP) used survival analysis to assess recidivism and the rate at which it occurred over a 27- to 29-month followup period in a cohort of 769 Illinois inmates released from custody between April 1 and June 30, 1983.

Recidivism was defined in terms of both postrelease arrest and incarceration either for a new offense or for a violation of conditional release. Of 539 inmates included in the final analysis (230 released prior to official discharge were excluded), 60 percent were rearrested and 42 percent were reincarcerated. Rearrest recidivism was highest in the first 9 months following release and generally declined in subsequent survival intervals. Rates for reincarceration were low initially, highest at 6 to 18 months after release, and subsequently diminished. Differences in hazard rates for arrest and incarceration reflect the lag caused by criminal justice processing time. Subgroup comparisons indicate that younger inmates, property offenders, those with several prior arrests or incarcerations, and those from more secure facilities were more likely to be arrested soon after release. 9 references.

Date Published: April 1, 1986