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Bibliography on Crime Forecasting and Related Topics

NCJ Number
Date Published
May 1984
This bibliography on crime forecasting and related topics covers prison population projection models, criminal statistics, crime causation models, and social forecasting methodology.

In the first section of the bibliography, the literature listed portrays the development of crime-related forecasting, with most of the documents abstracted. Of the 55 citations, 34 are discussions of empirical forecasting studies, while the remaining work deals primarily with theoretical and methodological issues associated with crime forecasting. Section II lists citations for literature that deals with prison population forecasting, including current literature and many unpublished documents from State governments. Section III traces the development of the Uniform Crime Report System in the United States and presents publications that deal with issues in the use of such statistics and the use of criminal statistics in other countries. An illustrative but not exhaustive list of literature on the history of crime indicators is provided. In Section IV, an illustrative listing of crime-causation literature deals with theoretical and empirical work pertaining to explanations of the level of crime rather than individual criminality. The listing is divided according to the major sets of theories that have influenced crime forecasting works, including economic ecology, deterrence, opportunity, social disorganization, and demographic theories. Section V, which lists literature that deals with social forecasting methodology, is included as a sampling of forecasting basics. This section is intended to serve as a guide for those practitioners interested in the technicalities of conducting forecasting studies.

Date Published: May 9, 1984