Methodological Research to Support the Redesign of NCVS: Sub-National Estimates

This project seeks to design and conduct a major survey to accompany the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). In response to an interest among our stakeholders for the production of sub-national estimates, this project is intended to lay a foundation for determining the most viable and cost-effective option for the development and implementation of a large-scale effort to generate sub-national crime victimization estimates. The primary purpose of this project is to generate data at the MSA-level to test the feasibility of producing estimates of the annual incidence of victimization in these areas. The primary goals are to: 1.Use a relatively inexpensive design and methodology; 2. Create a survey design that could be administered by local jurisdictions or their vendors; and 3. Produce estimates of value to the local area that correlate with similar estimates available from the national NCVS, including trend estimates. The project will compare the trade-offs in response bias, cost, operational complexity, and estimation between the core NCVS and a lower-cost, sub-national component. To date, the project team has developed a mail survey design using address-based sampling, with a household informant reporting on victimization experienced by adults in the household. One form of this survey supports only person- and household-level estimates, while the other also supports incident-level estimates. A Pilot Test of this design was successfully fielded in Fall 2015, with sampled addresses from the 40 largest Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs). A second wave is planned for Fall 2016. This award will allow sufficient sample to continue the evaluation of the design, including its ability to measure local victimization trends. Wave 2 of the Pilot Test will also include several methodological experiments. Two experiments continued from Wave 1 are testing the two questionnaire versions and inclusion of Spanish-language materials for addresses not associated with Hispanic surnames or areas with large Hispanic populations. Wave 2 will also test different levels of cash incentive ($2, $1, $0) and the use of FedEx versus USPS for the second follow-up questionnaire mailing.

CA/NCF

Note: This project contains a research and/or development component, as defined in applicable law.