U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics ******************************************************** This file is text only without graphics and many of the tables. A Zip archive of the tables in this report in spreadsheet format (.csv) and the full report including tables and graphics in .pdf format are available on BJS website at: http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=5408 This report is one in a series. More recent editions may be available. To view a list of all in the series go to http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbse&sid=60 ********************************************************* Bulletin Victims of Identity Theft, 2014 Erika Harrell, Ph.D., BJS Statistician An estimated 17.6 million persons, or 7% of all U.S. residents age 16 or older, were victims of one or more incidents of identity theft in 2014 (figure 1). This was similar to findings in 2012. Among identity theft victims, existing bank (38%) or credit card (42%) accounts were the most common types of misused information. During 2014, 3% of persons experienced at least one incident of the misuse of an existing credit card account. Also, 3% experienced the misuse of an existing bank account. Less than 1% experienced the misuse of an existing account (other than a bank or credit card account) or the misuse of personal information to open a new account or for other fraudulent purposes. This report uses data from the 2014 Identity Theft Supplement (ITS) to the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). From January to June 2014, the ITS collected data from persons who experienced one or more attempted or successful incidents of identity theft during the 12 months preceding their interview. ************************************************ ************** Highlights ************** * About 7% of persons age 16 or older were victims of identity theft in 2014, similar to findings in 2012. * The majority of identity theft victims (86%) experienced the fraudulent use of existing account information, such as credit card or bank account information. * The number of elderly victims of identity theft increased from 2.1 million in 2012 to 2.6 million in 2014. * About 14% of identity theft victims experienced out-of-pocket losses of $1 or more. Of these victims, about half suffered losses of less than $100. * Half of identity theft victims who were able to resolve any associated problems did so in a day or less. * Among victims who experienced multiple types of identity theft with existing accounts and other fraud, about a third (32%) spent a month or more resolving problems. * An estimated 36% of identity theft victims reported moderate or severe emotional distress as a result of the incident. ************************************************ Identity theft victims are defined as persons age 16 or older who experienced one or more of the following incidents: ** unauthorized use or attempted use of an existing account, such as a credit or debit card; or a checking, savings, telephone, online, or insurance account (referred to as fraud or misuse of an existing account) ** unauthorized use or attempted use of personal information to open a new account, such as a credit or debit card; or a telephone, checking, savings, loan, or mortgage account (referred to as fraud or misuse of a new account) ** misuse of personal information for a fraudulent purpose, such as getting medical care, a job, or government benefits; renting an apartment or house; or providing false information to law enforcement when charged with a crime or traffic violation (referred to as fraud or misuse of personal information). This report details the number, percentage, and demographic characteristics of victims who reported one or more incidents of identity theft during a 12-month period. It focuses on the most recent incident to describe victim characteristics and victim responses to identity theft. It describes how the victim discovered the crime; financial losses and other consequences of identity theft, including the amount of time victims spent resolving associated problems; reporting the incident to credit card companies, credit bureaus, and law enforcement agencies; and the level of distress identity theft victims experienced. In addition, comparisons to estimates found in the 2012 ITS are made. ******************************************* For 86% of identity theft victims, the most recent incident involved the unauthorized use of an existing account ******************************************* In 2014, the most common type of identity theft was the unauthorized misuse or attempted misuse of an existing account. There were 16.4 million victims age 16 or older of this type of identity theft, which was similar to findings in 2012 (15.3 million persons) (table 1). About 8.6 million victims experienced the fraudulent use of their credit cards, a slight increase from 7.7 million victims in 2012. Another 1.5 million victims experienced other types of existing account theft, such as misuse or attempted misuse of an existing telephone, online, or insurance account. An estimated 1.1 million victims reported the fraudulent misuse of their information to open a new account, such as a credit card or loan. Another 713,000 victims reported the misuse of their personal information for other fraudulent purposes, including getting medical care, employment, or other benefits. In 2014, about 79% of victims experienced a single incident of identity theft, while 21% experienced multiple incidents (not shown)***Footnote 1 Less than 1% of victims did not know whether they experienced one or more than one incident***. During the single or most recent identity theft incident experienced in 2014, 7% (1.3 million) of victims experienced multiple types of identity theft. Of these, the majority (921,500 persons) experienced the misuse of multiple types of existing accounts, such as credit card, checking, savings, telephone, or online accounts. The remaining 376,200 (2% of victims) who experienced multiple types of identity theft during a single incident reported some combination of misuse of an existing account, misuse of personal information to open a new account, and personal information used for other fraudulent purposes. ******************************************* The number of elderly identity theft victims increased from 2012 to 2014 ******************************************* In 2014, more females (9.2 million) experienced identity theft than males (8.3 million) (table 2). No statistically significant change was observed in the 2012 and 2014 numbers of male and female identity theft victims. Males and females had similar prevalence rates in 2014 (about 7% each). For both males and females, the 2012 and 2014 prevalence rates remained unchanged. The number of identity theft victims in each racial group measured did not change significantly from 2012 to 2014. A greater percentage of white non-Hispanics (8%) experienced identity theft in 2014 than black non-Hispanics (5%), non- Hispanics of other races (6%), and Hispanics (5%). The prevalence rate of identity theft victims among whites increased slightly from 7% in 2012 to 8% in 2014. No statistically significant difference was found in the 2012 and 2014 prevalence rates for blacks, Hispanics, persons of other races, and persons of two or more races. More persons age 65 or older were identity theft victims in 2014 (2.6 million) than in 2012 (2.1 million). The number of identity theft victims in all other age groups measured did not significantly change from 2012 to 2014. Persons ages 25 to 64 (8%) had higher prevalence rates of identity theft than persons age 18 to 24 (4%) and 65 or older (6%). From 2012 to 2014, the prevalence rates for each age group measured did not change. In each income group measured, the number of identity theft victims did not significantly change from 2012 to 2014. In 2014, persons in the highest income category (those with an annual household income of $75,000 or more) had a higher prevalence of identity theft (11%) than persons in other income brackets. For all of the income groups measured, the 2012 and 2014 prevalence rates remained unchanged. ******************************************* Persons in households with higher annual incomes were more likely to experience credit card misuse than persons in lower income households ******************************************* In 2014, a similar percentage of males and females (about 3% each) experienced existing credit card fraud, even when accounting for persons who owned a credit card (5% each) (table 3). No difference was observed by sex in the prevalence of the fraudulent use of personal information to open a new account, but the misuse of an existing bank account was more prevalent among females than males. This remained true when accounting for whether a person had a bank account. After accounting for credit card ownership, persons ages 16 to 24 were the least likely to experience existing credit card fraud, while persons age 65 or older had a similar prevalence rate as persons ages 25 to 49 (5%). Among those who had a bank account, persons ages 16 to 17 were the least likely to experience bank account fraud. Among persons who had a credit card, whites (6%) had a higher prevalence of existing credit card fraud than blacks (3%) and Hispanics (3%). However, among persons who had a bank account, no significant differences were found in the prevalence of bank account misuse among whites, blacks, and Hispanics. After accounting for credit card ownership, persons in the highest income bracket had the highest rate of existing credit card account misuse (8%). Among persons who had a bank account, persons in the highest income bracket had a higher prevalence of bank fraud (4%) than persons in households with incomes of $49,999 or less. ******************************************* The most common way victims discovered identity theft was by being contacted by a financial institution ******************************************* The way victims discovered that their identifying information was misused varied by the type of identity theft. Forty-five percent of of identity theft victims discovered the incident when a financial institution contacted them about suspicious activity (45%) or when they noticed fraudulent charges on an account (18%) (table 4). Among victims who experienced the unauthorized use of an existing account, 48% discovered the incident when a financial institution contacted them about suspicious activity on their account. In comparison, 15% of victims who experienced the misuse of personal information to open a new account or for other fraudulent purposes discovered the incident when a financial institution contacted them. Victims of these types of identity theft were most likely to discover the incident when another type of company or agency contacted them (21%); when they had problems with loans, government benefits, or taxes (16%); or after they received an unpaid bill (14%). ******************************************* Most identity theft victims did not know how the offender obtained their information ******************************************* About 32% of identity theft victims knew how the offender obtained their personal information (figure 2). Victims who experienced multiple types of identity theft during a single incident (42%) were more likely to know how the offender obtained their personal information than victims of existing credit card fraud (26%), other existing account fraud (31%), and new account fraud (33%). Of the 5.7 million victims who knew how the identity theft occurred, the most common way offenders obtained information (26%) was to steal it during a purchase or other transaction (not shown). ******************************************* 9 in 10 identity theft victims did not know anything about the offender ******************************************* Overall, most identity theft victims (92%) in 2014 did not know anything about the identity of the offender (table 5). The percentage of victims who knew something about the offender varied depending on the type of identity theft. Victims of multiple types of identity theft in a single incident (17%) were more likely than victims of existing account misuse (6%) to know something about the offender. About 20% of new account victims and victims of personal information theft knew something about the offender. Across all types of identity theft, victims who experienced the misuse of an existing credit card (4%) were the least likely to know something about the offender. ******************************************* About two-thirds of identity theft victims reported a direct financial loss ******************************************* The economic impact of identity theft is made up of direct and indirect financial loss. Direct financial loss, the majority of the total loss associated with identity theft, refers to the monetary amount the offender obtained from misusing the victim’s account or personal information, including the estimated value of goods, services, or cash obtained. Indirect loss includes any other costs caused by the identity theft, such as legal fees, bounced checks, and other miscellaneous expenses (e.g., postage, phone calls, or notary fees). Direct and indirect losses do not necessarily reflect personal losses to victims, as victims may be reimbursed for some or all of the direct and indirect losses. In 2014, 65% of identity theft victims reported a combined direct and indirect financial loss associated with the most recent incident, similar to findings in 2012 (table 6). Overall, in 2012 and 2014, victims who experienced a direct and indirect financial loss of at least $1 lost an average of $1,343, with a median loss of $300. The amount of financial loss varied by the type of identity theft. Approximately 66% of credit card fraud victims, 69% of bank fraud, 41% of new account fraud, and 35% of personal information fraud victims experienced a financial loss. Of victims who experienced multiple types of identity theft, 76% reported a financial loss (see appendix table 1). In 2014, 64% of the 17.6 million victims of identity theft reported a direct financial loss as a result of the identity theft incident, similar to findings in 2012. About 65% of credit card fraud victims, 68% of bank fraud victims, 39% of new account fraud victims, and 29% of personal information fraud victims reported that the offender obtained money, goods, or services (see appendix table 1). Of those victims who experienced multiple types of identity theft, 74% reported a direct financial loss associated with the incident. Among those who reported a direct financial loss, victims of personal information fraud lost an average of $7,761 or a median of $2,000 per victim, compared to victims of existing bank fraud who lost an average of $780 or a median of $200 per victim. In addition to any direct financial loss, 5% of all identity theft victims reported indirect losses associated with the most recent incident of identity theft. Victims who suffered an indirect loss of at least $1 reported an average indirect loss of $261 with a median of $10. ******************************************* In 2014, 14% of identity theft victims suffered an out-of-pocket financial loss ******************************************* In some instances, a company (e.g., credit card or insurance company) may reimburse some or all of the financial loss, reducing or eliminating the out-of pocket losses for victims. At the time of the interview, 14% of victims of identity theft had experienced personal out-of-pocket financial losses of $1 or more. Of these victims who suffered an out-of-pocket financial loss, 49% had total losses of $99 or less (figure 3). About 16% of victims reported out-of-pocket expenses of $100 to $249. An additional 14% of identity theft victims reported out-of-pocket expenses of $1,000 or more. The prevalence and amount of out-of- pocket loss varied by the type of identity theft. Victims experiencing the opening of a new account or the misuse of personal information had greater loss than those experiencing misuse of an existing credit card or bank account (see appendix table 1). ******************************************* Annual total financial loss driven by a small percentage of victims ******************************************* In 2012 and 2014, most of the total financial loss was attributed to victims in the highest percentile of loss (table 7). In 2012, victims up to the 90th percentile of the distribution of total financial loss reported a cumulative loss of $4.2 billion, compared to $4.3 billion in 2014. When considering the total cumulative loss, victims in 2012 lost $24.7 billion, compared to $15.4 billion in 2014. The large decline in the total loss can be attributed to differences in reported loss experienced by victims in the top 10%. In 2012, these victims lost $20.5 billion, compared to $11.1 billion in 2014. As with total loss in 2012 and 2014, most of the total out-of- pocket loss was attributed to the top 10% (table 8). In 2014, the 90th percentile of the distribution of total out-of-pocket loss was $491 million, compared to $455 million in 2012. In 2014, the total cumulative out-of-pocket loss was $6.5 billion, compared to $10.7 billion in 2012. ******************************************* Victims of identity theft who experienced existing account misuse were the least likely to have credit-related problems ******************************************* In addition to suffering monetary losses, some identity theft victims experienced other financial and legal problems. They paid higher interest rates on credit cards, they were turned down for loans or other credit, their utilities were turned off, or they were the subject of criminal proceedings. Victims who experienced the misuse of an existing account were generally less likely to experience financial and legal problems as a result of the incident than victims who had other personal information misused (table 9). In 2014, 2% of identity theft victims experienced credit or banking problems as a result of the incident and about 3% experienced problems with debt collectors. Two percent of victims of existing account misuse experienced problems with debt collectors and banking. About 13% of victims of other types of identity theft experienced credit problems and 14% percent reported problems with debt collectors. ******************************************* 1% of victims of existing account misuse reported problems at work or school, compared to 4% of victims of misuse of personal information ******************************************* Victims of violent crime (including rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault) and identity theft were asked about the impact of the victimization on work, school, and personal relationships, and the amount of emotional distress it caused. Compared to violent crime victims, a lower percentage of identity theft victims reported significant problems at work or school and with family members or friends due to the incident (figure 4). About 1% of identity theft victims reported significant problems at work or school, compared to 14% of violent crime victims. Similarly, 3% of identity theft victims reported significant problems with family members or friends, compared to 21% of violent crime victims. The percentage of identity theft victims who reported significant problems at work or school as a result of the incident varied by type of identity theft. About 4% of victims who had personal information used for fraudulent purposes other than to open a new account reported significant problems at work or school, compared to about 1% of victims of existing account misuse. About 12% of victims of multiple types of identity theft (other than existing account misuse) had significant problems with family or friend relationships, compared to 2% of victims of existing account misuse. ******************************************* 1 in 10 identity theft victims was severely distressed due to the crime, compared to 1 in 3 violent crime victims ******************************************* In 2014, 10% of identity theft victims reported that the crime was severely distressing, compared to 29% of violent crime victims (table 10). However, the level of emotional distress varied by type of identity theft. Twenty-one percent of victims of personal information fraud reported that they found the incident severely distressing, compared to 5% of existing credit card fraud victims. Thirty-six percent of victims of multiple types of identity theft with existing account and other fraud reported that the crime was severely distressing. ******************************************* The majority of identity theft victims spent a day or less resolving associated financial and credit problems ******************************************* At the time of the interview, 87% of identity theft victims had resolved any problems associated with the incident (see appendix table 16). Of these, most (52%) spent a day or less clearing up the problems, while about 9% spent more than a month. Victims of the misuse of existing accounts (54%) were more likely to resolve any associated financial and credit problems within a day, compared to victims of new account fraud (36%) and victims of multiple types of identity theft (39%) (figure 5). Among victims who had resolved all problems associated with the identity theft, 16% with multiple types of identity theft spent more than a month clearing up the problems, compared to 8% of victims of existing account misuse. Whether identity theft victims had resolved associated problems or not at the time of the interview, victims reported spending an average of about 7 hours clearing up the issues. Victims of existing credit card account misuse spent an average of 4 hours resolving problems, while victims who experienced multiple types of identity theft with existing accounts and other fraud spent an average of 24 hours resolving all problems (not shown). ******************************************* The level of emotional distress victims experienced was related to the length of time they spent resolving problems ******************************************* Victims who spent more time resolving the financial and credit- related problems associated with the identity theft incident were more likely to experience problems with work and other relationships and severe emotional distress than victims who were able to resolve the problems relatively quickly. Among identity theft victims who spent 6 months or more resolving financial and credit problems due to the theft, 29% experienced severe emotional distress (figure 6). In comparison, 4% of victims who spent a day or less clearing up problems reported that the incident was severely distressing. Similarly, 12% of victims who spent 6 months or more resolving issues related to the identity theft reported having significant problems with family members or friends, compared to about 1% of victims who spent a day or less resolving problems. ******************************************* Fewer than 1 in 10 identity theft victims reported the incident to police ******************************************* In 2014, 8% of identity theft victims reported the incident to police or law enforcement agencies (figure 7). Victims of personal information fraud (35%) were the most likely to report the incident to police, followed by new account fraud victims (20%) and victims of multiple types of identity theft (17%). Fewer than 10% of victims of existing credit card (3%) and existing bank account (8%) fraud reported the incident to police. The 92% of identity theft victims who did not report the incident to police offered a variety of reasons for not reporting (see appendix table 3). Among all victims who did not report the incident to police, the most common reason was that the victim handled the incident in another way (58%). Twenty-six percent of nonreporting victims did not contact police because they thought the incident was not important enough to be reported, and another 21% did not know how to report the incident to police. ******************************************* Of the 8% of identity theft victims who contacted a credit bureau, about 7 in 10 placed a fraud alert on their credit report ******************************************* In 2014, 89% of all victims of identity theft reported the incident to one or more nonlaw enforcement agencies, either government or commercial (not shown). About 87% of identity theft victims contacted a credit card company or bank to report misuse or attempted misuse of an account or personal information (see appendix table 5). Eight percent of identity theft victims contacted a credit bureau to report the incident. Victims whose identifying information was fraudulently used to open a new account (33%) were most likely to contact a credit bureau. Victims of any type of identity theft who contacted a credit bureau could take several different actions. Sixty-eight percent of victims who contacted a credit bureau placed a fraud alert on their credit report, while 18% provided a police report to the credit bureau (figure 8). ******************************************* About 85% of persons took some action to prevent identity theft victimization ******************************************* Persons were asked about actions they took during the prior 12 months to prevent identity theft, such as checking credit reports, shredding documents with personal information, and changing passwords on financial accounts. In 2014, 85% of persons engaged in one or more of the preventive actions asked about in the survey (table 11). A greater percentage of victims (97%) than nonvictims (84%) engaged in at least one preventive action. However, about 13% of victims who took preventive action did so in response to experiencing identity theft in the past year. Overall, the two most common preventive actions in 2014 were checking bank or credit statements (76%) and shredding or destroying documents with personal information (69%). A higher percentage of victims than nonvictims engaged in both of these preventive actions. However, about 14% of victims began shredding or destroying documents with personal information as a result of experiencing identity theft during the prior 12 months, and 26% began checking bank or credit statements as a result of the victimization. Less than 10% of victims purchased identity theft protection (4%), purchased identity theft insurance or used a credit monitoring service (6%), or used an identity theft security program on the computer (5%) after experiencing identity theft. Twenty-six percent of victims checked financial accounts and 28% changed passwords on these accounts as a result of the victimization. Among persons who did not experience identity theft in 2014, 38% checked their credit report, 30% changed passwords on financial accounts, 13% used identity theft security programs on their computer, 5% purchased identity theft insurance or used a credit monitoring service, and 3% purchased identity theft protection. ************************************************ ************************************** 15% of persons experienced identity theft at some point during their lives ************************************** Resolving the problems caused by identity theft may take more than a year for some victims. Of the 22 million persons age 16 or older who experienced the misuse of existing accounts or other personal information prior to 2014, 7% were still resolving the problems associated with the identity theft more than a year later (table 12). A greater percentage of persons who experienced the misuse of personal information to open a new account (17%) or for other fraudulent purposes (14%) prior to 2014 had unresolved problems more than a year later, compared to persons who experienced existing account misuse (4%). Overall, 15% of persons age 16 or older, or 36.5 million persons, experienced one or more incidents of identity theft during their lives. The lifetime prevalence rate for identity theft varied to some degree with age. Persons ages 25 to 64 had higher lifetime prevalence rates (16% to 17%) than persons ages 65 or older (14%) (not shown). ************************************************ *************** Methodology *************** Data collection ***************** The Identity Theft Supplement (ITS) was administered as a supplement to the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ (BJS) National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). The NCVS collects data on crime reported and not reported to the police against persons age 12 or older from a nationally representative sample of U.S. households. The sample includes persons living in group quarters (such as dormitories, rooming houses, and religious group dwellings) and excludes persons living in military barracks and institutional settings (such as correctional or hospital facilities) and persons who are homeless. From January 1, 2014, through June 30, 2014, persons age 16 or older in sampled NCVS households received the ITS at the end of the NCVS interview. Proxy responders and those who complete the NCVS interview in a language other than English did not receive the ITS. All NCVS and ITS interviews were conducted using computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI). Interviews were conducted by telephone or by personal visit. A final sample size of 64,287 of the original NCVS-eligible respondents completed the ITS questionnaire, resulting in a response rate of 90.6%. The combined overall NCVS-ITS unit response rate for NCVS households, NCVS persons, and ITS persons was 66.1%. Because of the level of nonresponse, a bias analysis was conducted. To the extent that those who responded to the survey and those who did not differ in important ways, there is potential for bias in estimates from the survey data. However, the result of the nonresponse bias analysis suggested that there was little or no bias of substantive importance due to nonresponse in the ITS estimates. The ITS collected individual data on the prevalence of and victim response to the attempted or successful misuse of an existing account, misuse of personal information to open a new account, or misuse of personal information for other fraudulent purposes. Respondents were asked whether they experienced any of these types of misuse during the 12 months prior to the interview. For example, persons interviewed in January 2014 were asked about identity theft incidents that occurred between January 2013 and November 2014. To simplify the discussion of the findings, this report refers to all identity theft experienced during the 12 months prior to the interviews as occurring in 2014. Persons who reported one or more incidents of identity theft during 2014 were asked more detailed questions about the incident and response to the incident, such as how they discovered the identity theft; financial, credit, and other problems resulting from the incident; time spent resolving associated problems; and reporting to police and credit bureaus. For most sections of the survey instrument, the ITS asked victims who experienced more than one incident during the 12-month reference period to describe only the most recent incident when answering questions. The ITS asked victims who experienced multiple incidents of identity theft during the year to report on the total financial losses suffered as a result of all incidents. The ITS asked both victims and nonvictims a series of questions about identity theft they experienced outside of the 12-month reference period and about measures they took to avoid or minimize the risk of becoming an identity theft victim. ************************************** Comparison of 2014 findings to prior BJS identity theft statistics ************************************** The 2012 and 2014 reports use data that differ from some previous BJS statistical collections on the topic of identity theft. With the exception of 2012, it was not possible to compare the identity theft estimates presented in this report to previously reported estimates. Initial BJS reports on identity theft used household-level data from the core NCVS. Data were reported for the household as a whole rather than for individual respondents, and the questions were more limited, providing less detail on the characteristics of the incident and the victim response. For additional information, see Identity Theft, 2005 (NCJ 219411, BJS web, November 2007); Identity Theft Reported by Households, 2007 - Statistical Tables (NCJ 230742, BJS web, June 2010); and Identity Theft Reported by Households, 2005-2010 (NCJ 236245, BJS web, November 2011). In 2008, BJS conducted the first ITS to the NCVS. Like the 2012 and 2014 ITS, the 2008 ITS collected detailed information on victim experiences with identity theft from persons age 16 or older. For more information, see Victims of Identity Theft, 2008 (NCJ 231680, BJS web, December 2010). Following the administration of the 2008 ITS, BJS made substantial changes to the survey instrument, making it difficult to compare across the 2008 and 2012 datasets. (For details on these changes, see Victims of Identity Theft, 2012, NCJ 243779, BJS web, December 2013). ************************************** Possible over-reporting of losses from jointly held accounts ************************************** Persons may have experienced the unauthorized use of a jointly held account. Joint accounts present a difficulty with counting financial harm or loss because of the potential for double- counting loss (e.g., both account holders report the same $500 loss). Because financial loss was not attributed to a particular type of identity theft, victims of multiple types of identity theft may have experienced some financial loss from a joint account and some financial loss from an independently held account. Therefore, it was not possible to correct for any potential over-reporting due to joint account holders who may have been double counted. Standard error computations **************************** When national estimates are derived from a sample, as is the case with the ITS, caution must be taken when comparing one estimate to another. Although one estimate may be larger than another, estimates based on a sample have some degree of sampling error. The sampling error of an estimate depends on several factors, including the amount of variation in the responses, the size of the sample, and the size of the subgroup for which the estimate is computed. When the sampling error around the estimates is taken into consideration, the estimates that appear different may not be statistically different. One measure of the sampling error associated with an estimate is the standard error. The standard error can vary from one estimate to the next. In general, for a given metric, an estimate with a smaller standard error provides a more reliable approximation of the true value than an estimate with a larger standard error. Estimates with relatively large standard errors are associated with less precision and reliability and should be interpreted with caution. In order to generate standard errors around estimates from the ITS, the Census Bureau produces generalized variance function (GVF) parameters for BJS. The GVFs take into account aspects of the NCVS complex sample design and represent the curve fitted to a selection of individual standard errors based on the Jackknife Repeated Replication technique. The GVF parameters were used to generate standard errors for each point estimate (i.e., numbers or percentages) in the report. In this report, BJS conducted tests to determine whether differences in estimated numbers and percentages were statistically significant once sampling error was taken into account. Using statistical programs developed specifically for the NCVS, all comparisons in the text were tested for significance. The primary test procedure used was Student’s t- statistic, which tests the difference between two sample estimates. To ensure that the observed differences between estimates were larger than might be expected due to sampling variation, the significance level was set at the 95% confidence level. Data users can use the estimates and the standard errors of the estimates provided in this report to generate a confidence interval around the estimate as a measure of the margin of error. The following example illustrates how standard errors can be used to generate confidence intervals: ** According to the ITS, in 2014, an estimated 7% of persons age 16 or older experienced identity theft (see table 1). Using the GVFs, BJS determined that the estimate has a standard error of 0.14 (see appendix table 7). A confidence interval around the estimate was generated by multiplying the standard errors by ±1.96 (the t-score of a normal, two-tailed distribution that excludes 2.5% at either end of the distribution). Therefore, the confidence interval around the estimate is 7 ± (0.14 X 1.96) or 6.73 to 7.27. In other words, if different samples using the same procedures were taken from the U.S. population in 2014, 95% of the time the percentage of persons who experienced identity theft would be between 6.73% and 7.27%. In this report, BJS also calculated a coefficient of variation (CV) for all estimates, representing the ratio of the standard error to the estimate. CVs provide a measure of reliability and a means to compare the precision of estimates across measures with differing levels or metrics. In cases where the CV was greater than 50%, or the unweighted sample had 10 or fewer cases, the estimate was noted with a “!” symbol (interpret data with caution; estimate is based on 10 or fewer sample cases, or the coefficient of variation exceeds 50%). Many of the variables examined in this report may be related to one another and to other variables not included in the analyses. Complex relationships among variables were not fully explored in this report and warrant more extensive analysis. Readers are cautioned not to draw causal inferences based on the results presented. ************************************************* The Bureau of Justice Statistics of the U.S. Department of Justice is the principal federal agency responsible for measuring crime, criminal victimization, criminal offenders, victims of crime, correlates of crime, and the operation of criminal and civil justice systems at the federal, state, tribal, and local levels. BJS collects, analyzes, and disseminates reliable and valid statistics on crime and justice systems in the United States, supports improvements to state and local criminal justice information systems, and participates with national and international organizations to develop and recommend national standards for justice statistics. William J. Sabol is director. This report was written by Erika Harrell. Lynn Langton verified the report. Irene Cooperman and Jill Thomas edited the report, and Barbara Quinn produced the report. September 2015, NCJ 248991 ************************************************* ************************************************* Office of Justice Programs Innovation * Partnerships * Safer Neighborhoods www.ojp.usdoj.gov ************************************************* *************************** 9/1/2015 1:30pm JER ***************************