U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics ------------------------------------------------------- This file is text only without graphics and many of the tables. A Zip archive of the tables in this report in spreadsheet format (.csv) and the full report including tables and graphics in .pdf format are available on BJS website at: http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4844 This report is one in a series. More recent editions may be available. To view a list of all in the series go to http://bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbse&sid=42 ------------------------------------------------------- ******************* Bulletin ******************* Probation and Parole in the United States, 2012 Laura M. Maruschak and Thomas P. Bonczar, BJS Statisticians During 2012, the number of adults under community supervision declined for the fourth consecutive year. At yearend 2012, an estimated 4,781,300 adults were under community supervision, down 40,500 offenders from the beginning of the year (figure 1). About 1 in 50 adults in the United States was under community supervision at yearend 2012. The community supervision population includes adults on probation, parole, or any other post-prison supervision. (See BJS definition of probation and parole.) The decline in the total number of adults under community supervision is attributed to the drop in the probation population as probationers accounted for the majority (82%) of adults under community supervision. The decline of 38,300 offenders in the probation population (from an estimated 3,981,000 to 3,942,800) accounted for about 95% of the decline in the overall community supervision population. The parole population declined by about 500 offenders during 2012, falling from an estimated 851,700 to 851,200. ************************************************* ************** HIGHLIGHTS ************** * The number of adults under community supervision declined by about 40,500 during 2012, down to 4,781,300 offenders at yearend 2012. * Both the probation (down 38,300) and parole (down 500) populations declined during 2012. * During 2012, an estimated 4.1 million adults moved onto or off probation. * Probation entries (2,048,300) declined for the fifth consecutive year, while probation exits (2,089,800) declined for the third consecutive year. * Sixty-eight percent of probationers completed their term of supervision or were discharged early during 2012, up from 66% in 2011. * The rate of incarceration among probationers at risk for violating their conditions of supervision during 2012 (5.1%) dropped below the rate observed in 2008 (6.0%). * The adult parole population at yearend 2012 fell to about 851,200, with nearly 1 million adults moving onto or off parole during the year. * Both parole entries (down 9.1%) and exits (down 6.8%) declined between 2011 and 2012. * During 2012, the state parole population fell about 0.6%, from an estimated 744,700 to 740,400, while the federal parole population grew 3.5%, from 106,955 to 110,739. * Fifty-eight percent of parolees completed their term of supervision or were discharged early in 2012, up from 52% in 2011. * The reincarceration rate among parolees at risk for violating their conditions of supervision continued to decline, dropping to 9% during 2012 from about 12% in 2011. ************************************************* Data in this report were collected through the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ (BJS) Annual Probation Survey and Annual Parole Survey. Both surveys began in 1980 and collect data from U.S. probation and parole agencies that supervise adults. For this report, an adult is any person subject to the jurisdiction of an adult trial court or corrections agency. Juveniles prosecuted as adults in a criminal court are considered adults. Respondents are asked to report the number of adults on probation or parole at the beginning and end of each reporting year, the number entering and exiting supervision during the reporting year, characteristics of the populations at yearend, and other information. The reporting methods for some probation and parole agencies have changed over time (see Methodology). Appendix tables present additional 2012 data by jurisdiction. ************************************* Community supervision population declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2012, driven by the decline in probationers ************************************* The number of U.S. adults under community supervision declined by about 40,500 in 2012, falling below 4.8 million (appendix table 1). This represents the fourth consecutive within-year decline in the community supervision population. Since probationers accounted for 82% of the adults under community supervision, the trend observed among the community supervision population was largely driven by the trend in the probation population. The number of adults under community supervision increased every year from 1980 to 2008, during which time the within- year growth rates ranged from 0.5% to 10.9%. The number of adults under community supervision declined for the first time in 2009 and continued to decline each year through 2012. (See Probation and Parole in the United States, 2011, NCJ 239686, BJS web, November 2012, for trend data beginning in 1980.) The change in the number of adults under community supervision observed between beginning of the year and yearend 2012 was slightly different from the cumulative change in probationers and parolees over the same period, because community supervision numbers were adjusted to account for parolees who were also serving a probation sentence. (See Methodology for discussion of adjustments.) During 2012, the probation population declined by about 38,300, falling to an estimated 3,942,800 (figure 2; appendix table 2). This marked the fourth consecutive within-year decline in the probation population. ************************************************************ ************************ BJS definition of probation and parole ************************ Probation is a court-ordered period of correctional supervision in the community, generally as an alternative to incarceration. In some cases, probation can be a combined sentence of incarceration followed by a period of community supervision. Parole is a period of conditional supervised release in the community following a prison term. It includes parolees released through discretionary or mandatory supervised release from prison, those released through other types of post-custody conditional supervision, and those sentenced to a term of supervised release. ************************************************************ The parole population declined by about 500 offenders during 2012, dropping to about 851,200 (figure 3; appendix table 4). This slight decline in the parole population was largely the result of the decline in the California parole population. Without California’s decline in the parole population, the U.S. parole population would have increased. *********************************** Rate of adults under community supervision continued to decline during 2012 *********************************** Consistent with the decline in the number of adults under community supervision, the community supervision rate also declined at yearend 2012, down to 1,981 persons per 100,000 U.S. adult residents from 2,015 at yearend 2011 (table 1). The supervision rate of probationers was similar at yearend 2012, dropping to 1,633 persons per 100,000 U.S. adult residents from 1,662 per 100,000 at yearend 2011. Community supervision and probation rates declined each year from 2007 to 2012, while parole rates fluctuated. From 2011 to 2012, the parole supervision rate declined from 357 to 353 persons on parole per 100,000 U.S. adult residents. ************************************** Four states accounted for half of the decline in the probation population ************************************** During 2012, the probation population declined by about 38,300 probationers, reaching an estimated 3,942,800 at yearend (appendix table 2). Thirty-three jurisdictions, including the District of Columbia and the federal system, reported an estimated 63,700 fewer probationers, and 19 states reported an estimated 25,400 increase in probationers at yearend 2012 than at the beginning of the year. Among jurisdictions with declining probation populations, Georgia, Michigan, New York, and North Carolina accounted for 51% of the total decrease. Georgia (down 15,156) accounted for nearly a quarter of the total decline. Four states--Washington, Ohio, Tennessee, and Idaho-- reported the largest increases in probation population during 2012. These four states accounted for about half (51%) of the total increase in the probation population among states reporting increases. ************************************************************ ****************** California Public Safety Realignment ******************* As mandated by laws enacted on October 1, 2011, to alleviate overcrowding in prisons, California continued placing new nonviolent, nonserious, nonsex offenders under county jurisdiction for incarceration in local jail facilities during 2012. In addition, inmates serving time in prison not convicted of violent, serious, or sexual offenses continued to be released to a county-directed post-release community supervision (PRCS) program instead of to the state’s parole system. For counting purposes, BJS has included data on counts and movements of offenders under PRCS to data reported for offenders on state parole. Since enactment of the law, the number of inmates released and placed under PRCS has increased. During 2012, the number of offenders on PRCS increased from 12,979 at the beginning of the year to 32,948 at yearend (figure 4). The increase observed in the PRCS population is consistent with the decline observed in California’s prison population. (See Prisoners in 2012 - Advance Counts, NCJ 242467, BJS web, July 2012.) During 2012, the number of offenders under state parole declined from 98,724 to 56,339 offenders. The large decline (42,385 offenders) in the state parole population offset the increase (19,969 offenders) in the population on PRCS, resulting in an overall decline of 22,416 in the combined parole population. During the same time, the national parole population declined by about 500 offenders. Excluding the overall observed decline of parolees in California, the national parole population would have increased by about 21,900 offenders. While California’s probation population has been declining, the decline during 2012 was smaller than declines in the previous 4 years (table 2). From 2008 to 2011, California’s probation population declined between about 3% and 10%. During 2012, the population declined by less than 0.1% or 189 offenders. Over the past 2 years, the number of persons entering probation in California increased. Following a period of decline from 2008 to 2010, probation entries increased more than 1% from 2010 to 2011 and increased about 7% from 2011 to 2012. ************************************************************ Entries to probation declined for the fifth consecutive year; exits declined for the third consecutive year During 2012, movement both onto and off probation declined (figure 5). Between 2011 and 2012, entries to probation declined 2.9%, from about 2,109,500 to 2,048,300 offenders, and exits declined 4.5%, from about 2,189,100 to 2,089,800 offenders. Overall, about 4.1 million adults moved onto and off probation during 2012, compared to nearly 4.3 million during 2011. During 2009, the number of exits from probation exceeded the number of entries for the first time since data collection began. While both probation entries and exits continued to decline from 2009 to 2011, the difference between the two grew larger, resulting in larger declines in the population. Probation exits still exceeded entries during 2012; however, the difference was smaller, resulting in a smaller decline in the population. **************************** Exit rate for probationers declined during 2012 **************************** The rate at which probationers exit supervision—the number that exit probation divided by the average of the probation population at the beginning and end of the year—provides a measure of how quickly the population turns over and an indirect measure of the average time an offender can expect to serve on probation. During 2012, 53 probationers per 100 exited supervision, down for the first time since remaining stable at the 2008 rate of 55 per 100 (table 3). Turnover due to completing the term of supervision, either through full-term completion or early discharge, remained stable at 36 per 100 probationers. Due to the decline in the exit rate, the mean length of stay on probation increased to nearly 23 months after remaining stable at about 22 months from 2008 to 2011. During 2012, 68% of the 2,089,800 probationers who exited supervision were discharged after completing their term of supervision or receiving an early discharge, up slightly from 66% in 2011 (table 4). ************************************** Rate of incarceration among probationers decreased during 2012 ************************************** The rate of incarceration among probationers—including incarceration for a new offense, a revocation, or other reasons—has been gradually declining over the past 4 years from the rate of 6.0% in 2008 (figure 6). During 2012, 5.1% of probationers at risk of failing were incarcerated, compared to 5.5% in 2011. The rate at which all adults on probation during the year can be incarcerated is defined as the ratio of the number of probationers who are discharged during the year as the result of incarceration to the number of probationers who could have been incarcerated at any point during the year. The number who could have been incarcerated equals the sum of the start of the year population plus entries onto probation. This pool is defined as those at risk of incarceration. ************************************** Most characteristics of probationers have remained stable since 2000 ************************************** The characteristics of adult probationers during 2012 have remained relatively unchanged since 2000 (appendix table 3). In 2000 and 2012, more than half (54%) of probationers were non-Hispanic white and about a third (30% in 2012 and 31% in 2000) were non-Hispanic black. Fifty-three percent of probationers were being supervised for a felony offense in 2012 compared to 54% in 2000, and 72% were on active status in 2012, compared to 76% in 2000. During 2012, males made up about 76% of the adult probation population, compared to 78% in 2000. ************************************** U.S. parole population decreased slightly during 2012 ************************************** The parole population declined slightly in 2012 after 2 consecutive years of within-year increases. During 2012, the parole population decreased by about 500 offenders, from an estimated 851,700 at the beginning of the year to 851,200 at yearend (appendix table 4). The federal parole population increased 3.5% over the same period, from 106,955 at the beginning of the year to 110,739 at yearend. (See Offenders under federal community supervision.) Among jurisdictions reporting an increase in their parole population during 2012, Pennsylvania (up 6,770), Texas (up 6,292), and the federal system (up 3,784) accounted for more than half (55%) of the increase. Overall, 25 states and the federal system reported within-year increases, totaling about 30,800 additional parolees at yearend 2012. At yearend 2012, 24 states and the District of Columbia reported an estimated 31,300 fewer persons on parole than at the beginning of the year. The decline in California’s parole population accounted for 72% of the decline among states reporting declines. *********************************************************** ************************ Offenders under federal community supervision ************************ Federal offenders serve three distinct forms of community supervision, including probation, parole (i.e., mandatory release, military parole, and special parole), and a term of supervised release after having served a term in prison. The federal community supervision data are based on federal fiscal year data ending September 30, which is a different reference period from findings elsewhere in this report. (See Methodology for more detail on types of federal offenders under community supervision and the source of these data.) ************************************** Most federal offenders under community supervision were serving a term of supervised release ************************************** Over the 25-year period from 1987 to 2012, the number of offenders on community supervision experienced an average annual increase of 2.5%, from 71,400 at midyear 1987 to an estimated 132,600 on September 30, 2012 (figure 7). During this same period, the number of offenders on post- incarceration supervision increased from 17,900 (consisting entirely of parolees) to an estimated 110,400 (including 1,600 parolees and 108,800 on supervised release). Federal offenders on probation decreased from 53,500 at midyear 1987 to an estimated 22,100 on September 30, 2012. ************************************** Males were a larger share of the population serving a term of supervised release ************************************** The number of females serving a term of federal supervised release increased by more than a third, from an estimated 11,600 on September 30, 2000, to 15,700 on September 30, 2010 (the latest date for which information is available). However, the percentage of females serving a term of supervised release decreased from 18% to 15% (see appendix table 7). This occurred as the number of males on supervised release increased by nearly two-thirds, from an estimated 52,400 in 2000 to 86,100 in 2010. Nearly all federal parolees at fiscal yearend 2010 were male (97%), as both the number and percentage of females on parole decreased from 2000 to 2010. The percentage of females on federal probation increased from 31% in 2000 to 36% in 2010, as both the number of females and males serving a sentence of federal probation decreased. ************************************** Felony drug offenders serving a term of supervised release increased more rapidly compared to other offenders ************************************** Felony drug offenders continued to makeup the largest share of federal offenders under community supervision, increasing from 40% of the total population in 2000 to 46% in 2010 (see appendix table 8). This increase was due to a 61% increase in drug offenders who were serving a term of supervised release, from an estimated 34,100 in 2000 to 54,900 in 2010. The increase in drug offenders on supervised release offset the decrease in federal felony drug offenders on probation and parole, from an estimated 5,700 in 2000 to 3,300 in 2010. *********************************************************** ************************************** Entries and exits to parole both declined; entries declined at a faster rate ************************************** During 2012, nearly 1 million persons moved onto and off parole. About 496,100 adults entered parole, while the same estimated number exited parole (figure 8). The decline in entries to parole from 2008 to 2012 was consistent with the decrease observed in the total number of prisoners released from state jurisdiction during this period, coupled with a decline in the number of prisoners conditionally released to community supervision. (See Prisoners in 2012 - Advance Counts, NCJ 242467, BJS web, July 2013.) From 2011 to 2012, the decline in entries (9.1%) exceeded the decline in exits (6.8%). ************************************** Parolees entering through discretionary release surpassed those entering through mandatory release ************************************** More than a third (35%) of parolees who entered supervision during 2012 entered through mandatory release from prison, continuing the decline that began in 2008, when more than half (54%) entered through mandatory release (figure 9). This marks the fourth consecutive year of decline in mandatory releases. During 2012, parolees entering through a discretionary release (41%) surpassed those entering through a mandatory release, becoming the most common type of entry to parole. Parolees who had their parole reinstated accounted for a larger share of parole entries during 2012 (13%) than during 2011 (10%). One in 10 entered through a term of supervised release, which was unchanged from 2011. A term of supervised release is a release type designated by the federal system and is similar to that of mandatory release. If mandatory and supervised release were combined into one category, the decline in those entering parole through mandatory release would be slightly offset by the increase in those entering through a term of supervised release. ************************************** Parole turnover rate declined for third consecutive year ************************************** The parole turnover rate fell from 63 exits per 100 parolees in 2011 to 58 per 100 parolees in 2012, continuing a declining trend since 2010 (table 5). This decline resulted in an increase in the mean length of stay on parole, from 19.1 months in 2011 to 20.6 months in 2012. The decline in the overall turnover of the parole population was driven by the decline in the rate of parolees who exited supervision and returned to incarceration between 2011 and 2012 (20 per 100 parolees compared to 15 per 100 parolees). This decline was offset slightly by the increase in the rate of parolees who completed their term of supervision or received an early discharge between 2011 and 2012 (33 per 100 parolees compared to 34 per 100 parolees). Among the estimated 496,100 parolees who exited supervision in 2012, 58% completed their term of supervision or received an early discharge, up from 52% in 2011 (table 6). A quarter (25%) of parolees returned to incarceration in 2012, compared to about a third (32%) in 2011. ************************************** Since 2006, the rate of reincarceration among parolees steadily declined ************************************** During 2012, an estimated 9% of all parolees who were at risk of reincarceration were incarcerated (figure 10). This is down from 12% reincarcerated in 2011. The decline observed was largely due to the decline in the number of parolees being returned to incarceration in California. The rate at which all adults on parole during the year could be incarcerated is defined as the ratio of the number of parolees who were discharged during the year as a result of incarceration to the number of probationers who could have been incarcerated at any point during the year. The number who could have been incarcerated equals the sum of the start of the year population plus entries onto parole during the year. This pool is defined as those at risk of incarceration. While the rates at which parolees returned to incarceration with either a new sentence or as a result of revocation declined from 2008 to 2012, the rate of parolees who returned with a new sentence decreased more slowly (from about 4% in 2008 to 3% in 2012) than the rate of those who returned as a result of revocation (from about 10% in 2008 to 5% in 2012). ************************************** Most characteristics of parolees were unchanged during 2012 ************************************** During 2012, most characteristics of adult parolees remained stable when compared to those in 2011. Males continued to make up about 9 in 10 (89%) of the adult parole population (appendix table 6). About 4 in 10 parolees were non-Hispanic white (41%) or non-Hispanic black (40%), and about 2 in 10 (17%) were Hispanic. Among parolees, 82% were on active supervision, and 95% had a maximum sentence of one year or more. Nearly 3 in 10 (29%) were being supervised for a violent offense. ************ Methodology ************ The Bureau of Justice Statistics’ (BJS) Annual Probation Survey and Annual Parole Survey began in 1980 and collect data from probation and parole agencies in the United States that supervise adults. In these data, adults are persons subject to the jurisdiction of an adult court or correctional agency. Juveniles prosecuted as adults in a criminal court are considered adults. Juveniles under the jurisdiction of a juvenile court or correctional agency are excluded from these data. The National Criminal Justice Information and Statistics Service of the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration, BJS’s predecessor agency, began a statistical series on parole in 1976 and on probation in 1979. The two surveys collect data on the total number of adults supervised in the community on January 1 and December 31 each year, the number of adults who enter and exit supervision during the reporting year, and characteristics of the population at yearend. See appendix tables for detailed data. Both surveys cover all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the federal system. BJS depends on the voluntary participation of state central reporters and separate state, county, and court agencies for these data. During 2012, Westat (Rockville, MD) served as BJS’s collection agent for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Data for the federal system were provided directly to BJS from the Office of Probation and Pretrial Services, Administrative Office of the United States Courts (AOUSC) through the Federal Justice Statistics Program (FJSP). Probation *********** The 2012 Annual Probation Survey was sent to 468 respondents: 33 central state reporters; 435 separate state, county, or court agencies, including the state probation agency in Pennsylvania, which also provided data for 65 counties in Pennsylvania; the District of Columbia; and the federal system. The states with multiple reporters were Alabama (3), Arizona (2), Colorado (8), Florida (41), Georgia (2), Idaho (2), Kentucky (3), Michigan (134), Missouri (2), Montana (4), New Mexico (2), Ohio (187), Oklahoma (3), Tennessee (3), Washington (33), and West Virginia (2). Three localities in Florida, one in Kentucky, nine in Michigan, 16 in Ohio, and three in Washington did not provide data for the 2012 collection. For these localities, the agency’s most recent December 31 population was used to estimate the January 1 and December 31, 2012, populations. Parole ******* The 2012 Annual Parole Survey was sent to 55 respondents: 50 central state reporters, including the California Youth Authority; one municipal agency in Alabama; the state parole agency in Pennsylvania, which also provided data for 65 counties in Pennsylvania; the District of Columbia; and the federal system. States with multiple reporters were Alabama (2) and California (2). One respondent in California did not provide data. The December 31, 2011, population count was used to estimate the January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2012, populations. In this report, federal parole includes a term of supervised release from prison, mandatory release, parole, military parole, and special parole. A term of supervised release is ordered at the time of sentencing by a federal judge, and it is served after release from a federal prison sentence. Definitional differences exist between parole reported here and in other BJS statistical series. Additional information about the data collection instruments is available on the BJS website at www.bjs.gov. Adjustments to account for offenders with dual community correctional status ************************************** Some offenders on probation or parole may have had dual community correctional statuses because they were serving separate probation and parole sentences concurrently. With the 2007 data, BJS began collecting information on the number of parolees who were also on probation at yearend. The total community supervision populations from 2008 through 2012 reported in figure 1 (and the 2012 counts in appendix table 1), have been adjusted based on available information by excluding the total number of parolees who were also on probation to avoid double counting. As a result, the probation and parole counts from 2008 through 2012 do not sum to the total community supervision population within the same year. All of the estimates for parolees with dual community correctional statuses are based on data reported by parole agencies that were able to provide the information for the reporting year (table 7). Because some probation and parole agencies were not able to provide these data, the total number of parolees also on probation from 2008 through 2012 may be underestimates. Reporting changes in the number of adults on probation and parole, 2000–2012 ************************************** In a given data collection year, respondents are asked to provide both the January 1 and December 31 population counts. At times, the January 1 count differs greatly from the December 31 count of the prior year. The difference reported may result from administrative changes, such as implementing new information systems, resulting in data review and cleanup; reconciling probationer records; reclassifying offenders, including those on probation to parole and offenders on dual community supervision statuses; and including certain probation populations not previously reported (e.g., supervised for an offense of driving while intoxicated or under the influence, some probationers who had absconded, and some on an inactive status). The cumulative discrepancies between the yearend and beginning year (for the year prior) between 2000 and 2012 in the probation population counts resulted in an overall decline of about 139,600 probationers (table 8). Discrepancies between the yearend and beginning year parole population count resulted in an increase of about 22,800 parolees between 2000 and 2012 (table 9). Probation coverage expanded beginning in 1998 through 1999 ************************************** The number of probation agencies included in the survey expanded in 1998 and continued to expand through 1999 to include misdemeanor probation agencies in a few states that fell within the scope of this survey. See Probation and Parole in the United States, 2010, NCJ 236019, BJS web, November 2011, for a discussion of this expansion. Estimating change in population counts ************************************** Technically, the change in the probation and parole populations from the beginning of the year to the end of the year should equal the difference between entries and exits during the year. However, those numbers may not be equal. Some probation and parole information systems track the number of cases that enter and exit community supervision, not the number of offenders. This means that entries and exits may include case counts as opposed to counts of offenders, while the beginning and yearend population counts represent individuals. Additionally, all of the data on entries and exits may not have been logged into the information systems or the information systems may not have fully processed all of the data before the data were submitted to BJS. Estimates of annual change reported in appendix tables 1, 2, and 4 were calculated as the difference between the January 1 and December 31 populations within the reporting year. At the national level, 504 parolees were the difference between the change in the parole population measured by the difference between January 1 and December 31, 2012, populations and the difference between parole entries and exits during 2012. For probation at the national level, 3,186 probationers were the difference between the change in the probation population measured by the difference between January 1 and December 31, 2012, populations and the difference between probation entries and exits during 2012. In figures 1, 2, and 3, the annual percent change was based on the difference between the January 1 and December 31 populations within the reporting year, while change calculated using the yearend populations in these figures would be the difference between December 31 populations in each given year. As previously discussed, jurisdiction counts reported for January 1 may be different from December 31 counts reported in the previous year. As a result, the direction of change based on yearend data could be in the opposite direction of the annual percent change. This occurred between 2007 and 2008. The apparent decrease observed in the community supervision and probation rate between 2007 and 2008 was due to a change in scope for two jurisdictions. While a comparison of yearend to yearend yields a decline, the annual percent change actually increased. See Probation and Parole in the United States, 2010, BJS web, NCJ 236019, November 2011, for a description of changes in reporting methods. Imputing entries and exits for nonreporting agencies during 2012 ********************************** Based on the availability of data, BJS used three methods of ratio estimation to impute probation entries for agencies not reporting these data. We used a single method to impute probation exits, a single method to impute entries to parole, and a single method to impute exits to parole. Imputing probation entries *************************** The first method was used to estimate entries for probation agencies that were unable to report these data in 2012, but able to report in 2011. We estimated probation entries in 2012 by using the ratio of entries in 2011 to the agency’s probation population on January 1, 2011, and applying that ratio to the agency’s January 1, 2012, population. This method was used to estimate probation entries in nonreporting counties and district agencies in Florida, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, and Washington. The second method was used to estimate 2012 probation entries for agencies that did not report entries in both 2011 and 2012. The ratio of 2011 entries to the January 1, 2011, population among reporting agencies of similar size within the state was used to estimate the number of entries for nonreporting agencies. This method was used to estimate probation entries and exits for nonreporting counties and district agencies in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Washington. The third method was used to estimate probation entries by using the ratio of 2011 imputed entries to the January 1, 2011, probation population and applying that ratio to the agency’s January 1, 2012, population. This method was used to estimate probation entries and exits for nonreporting agencies in Colorado, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. Imputing parole entries ************************ To estimate parole entries for parole agencies that were unable to report these data in 2012 but were able to report in 2011, we calculated the ratio of entries in 2011 to the agency’s parole population on January 1, 2011, and applied that ratio to the agency’s January 1, 2012, population. This method was used to estimate in California. Imputing probation and parole exits ************************************ A single method was used to estimate probation and parole exits. For both probation and parole, BJS added the agency’s estimated entries in 2012 to the agency’s population on January 1, 2012, and subtracted that estimate from the population on December 31, 2012. For probation, this method was used in Colorado, Florida, Kentucky, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Rhode Island, Washington, and West Virginia. For parole, this method was used in California. Calculating mean length of stay ******************************** Mean length of stay is calculated as the inverse of the exit rate. Patterson and Preston (2007) provide tests of various methods for estimating expected length of stay and report the results of simulations showing that under assumptions of a stationary population with a small growth rate, the inverse of the exit rate performs well relative to a life- table approach to estimating mean time served.*** Footnote 1 1See Patterson, E.J., & Preston, S.H. (2007). Estimating Mean Length of Stay in Prison: Methods and Applications. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 24:33–49.***Based on the small growth rates in the probation and parole populations in recent years, the inverse of the exit rate suffices to provide an estimate of mean stay on probation or parole in recent years. Community supervision outcome measures *************************************** The percentage of probationers and the percentage of parolees who completed supervision are defined as the number of probationers or parolees that completed supervision during the year and were discharged, among all probationers or parolees who were discharged from supervision during the year. The formula used to calculate this outcome measure is C(t)/D(t), where D(t) = C(t) + I(t) + O(t). In this formula, t equals the year referenced, C(t) equals the number of probationers or parolees who were discharged from supervision during the year after completing their terms or who received an early discharge, and D(t) equals the total number who were discharged from supervision during the year. D(t) includes C(t), the number of offenders who completed supervision; I(t), the number who were incarcerated during the year; and O(t), the number who were discharged during the year for other reasons. The percentage of probationers and the percentage of parolees incarcerated are calculated using the formula in the previous paragraph, except the numerator is the number of probationers or parolees who were discharged from supervision during the year as the result of being incarcerated. The rate of incarceration (for parolees this is also referred to as the rate of return to incarceration or the rate of reincarceration) based on the at-risk probation or parole population is defined as the ratio of the number of probationers or parolees who were discharged from supervision during the year because they were incarcerated for a new offense, a revocation, or other reasons, to the number of all probationers or parolees at risk of being incarcerated during the year. The at-risk population is defined as the number of probationers or parolees under supervision at the start of the year (on January 1) plus the number who entered supervision during the year. This pool of probationers or parolees could be incarcerated at any time during the year; therefore, they were at risk of incarceration. The formula used to calculate this outcome measure is I(t)/(P(t-1) + E(t)), where t equals the year referenced, P(t-1) equals the start of the year population, and E(t) equals the number of probationers or parolees who entered supervision during the year. The at-risk measure of incarceration accounts for all probationers or parolees under supervision during the year (i.e., probationers or parolees who were under supervision on January 1 plus those who entered during the year) who are the probationers or parolees at risk of being incarcerated. This measure is not limited to those who are discharged during the year and permits each probationer or parolee to be incarcerated at any time during the year. Change in the Annual Parole Survey ********************************** In 2008, the Annual Parole Survey included a new category for type of entry to parole that is labeled “term of supervised release” (TSR). It is defined as a fixed period of release to the community that follows a fixed period of incarceration based on a determinate sentencing statue; both are determined by a judge at the time of sentencing. As a consequence, some states began reporting term of supervised releases in 2008. The new category was added to better classify the large majority of entries to parole reported by the federal system. See Probation and Parole in the United States, 2010, NCJ 236019, BJS web, November 2011, for detail on estimation methods to analyze national trends for all types of entry to parole. Types of federal offenders under community supervision Since the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984 was enacted on November 1, 1987, offenders sentenced to federal prison are no longer eligible for parole, but are required to serve a term of supervised release following release from prison. Those sentenced to prison prior to November 1, 1987, continue to be eligible for parole, as do persons violating laws of the District of Columbia, military offenders, and foreign treaty transfer offenders (see http://www.uscourts.gov/news/TheThirdBranch/11-05- 01/Parole_in_the_Federal_Probation_System.aspx). Federal offenders under supervision in the District of Columbia are reported separately in this report. Unlike other parts of this report where all forms of federal post-prison supervision are grouped together under the generic term “parole,” the data in this box separate federal offenders who were serving a term of supervised release from the types of federal post-prison supervision which are more precisely described as parole. The Sentencing Reform Act also requires the adoption and use of sentencing guidelines, which also took effect on November 1, 1987. Many offenses for which probation had been the typical sentence prior to this date, particularly property and regulatory offenses, subsequently resulted in sentences to prison. Changes in how federal offenders are supervised in the community were first described in the BJS report Federal Offenders under Community Supervision, 1987–96 (NCJ 168636, August 1998), and updated in Federal Criminal Case Processing, 2002: With trends 1982-2002, Reconciled Data (NCJ 207447, January 2005). Source of data ***************** The source of data for the federal population from 1987 to 2010, as reported in the box on page 7 is BJS’s Federal Justice Statistics Program (FJSP) database, compiled from source files provided by the Administrative Office of the United States Courts (AOUSC). Data for 2011 and 2012, which appear in Figure 6: Number of offenders under federal supervision, by type of supervision, 1987–2012, were estimated by averaging counts for June 30 and December 30, obtained directly from the AOUSC website on October 30, 2013 (http://www.uscourts.gov/Statistics/StatisticalTablesForTheF ederalJudiciary.aspx), table E-2. Unlike the federal data presented elsewhere in this report, which are for the calendar year ending December 31, the data presented in this box are based on the federal fiscal year ending September 30 (or, as noted, for June 30), permitting analysis of the two major types of federal post-prison supervision to begin in 1987. Calendar year data for federal offenders with a term of supervised release, as distinct from those on other types of post-prison supervision, including parole (includes military parole and special parole) and mandatory release, were not collected by the Annual Parole Survey until 2008, though some estimates from 1998 to 2007 are possible. Comparison of the federal fiscal year data in this box with data collected by the Annual Probation Survey and Annual Parole Survey for years in which there is overlap showed a very close correspondence, with differences attributable to the variations between federal fiscal year and calendar year reference periods. Use of the federal fiscal year data also allowed for an analysis of type of supervision by sex and by type of offense, neither of which are available from the Annual Parole Survey. The number of offenders by sex for September 30, 2000, reported in Appendix table 7: Federal offenders under supervision, by sex, 2000, 2005, and 2010, were estimated by applying the percentages of males and females, as reported in BJS’s Compendium of Federal Justice Statistics, 2000, table 7.2 (NCJ 194067), to updated counts of the number of persons under supervision obtained from BJS’s Federal Criminal Case Processing, 2002: With trends 1982–2002, Reconciled Data, 2004, figure 4 (NCJ 207447). The number of offenders by type of offense for September 30, 2000, reported in Appendix table 8: Federal offenders under supervision, by type of offense, 2000, 2005, and 2010, were estimated, by recalculating the percentage of the total represented by each type of offense, as reported in BJS’s Compendium of Federal Justice Statistics, 2000, table 7.1 (NCJ 194067), and applying these revised percentages to updated counts of the number of persons under supervision obtained from BJS’s Federal Criminal Case Processing, 2002: With trends 1982–2002, Reconciled Data, 2004, figure 4 (NCJ 207447). Probation: Explanatory notes ***************************** Florida--Nonreporting agencies in 2012--three local agencies did not report data. The most recently available December 31 population count was used to estimate January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2012, populations. See Imputing entries and exits for nonreporting agencies in 2012 for additional information on imputing entries and exits for nonreporting agencies. Georgia--Probation counts may overstate the number of persons under probation supervision because the agency that reports county data has the capacity to report probation cases and not the number of persons under supervision. Probationers with multiple sentences could potentially have one or more cases with one or more private probation agencies in one jurisdiction and/or one or more private probation agencies within jurisdictions. Kentucky--Nonreporting agencies in 2012--one local agency did not report data. This agency’s December 31, 2011, population count was used to estimate January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2012, populations. See Imputing entries and exits for nonreporting agencies in 2012 for additional information on imputing entries and exits for nonreporting agencies. Michigan--Nonreporting agencies in 2012--nine local agencies did not report data. The most recently available December 31 population count was used to estimate January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2012, populations. See Imputing entries and exits for nonreporting agencies in 2012 for additional information on imputing entries and exits for nonreporting agencies. Ohio--Nonreporting agencies in 2012--16 local agencies did not report data. The most recently available December 31 population count was used to estimate January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2012, populations. See Imputing entries and exits for nonreporting agencies in 2012 for additional information on imputing entries and exits for nonreporting agencies. Washington--Nonreporting agencies in 2012--three local agencies did not report data. The most recently available December 31 population count was used to estimate January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2012, populations. See Imputing entries and exits for nonreporting agencies in 2012 for additional information on imputing entries and exits for nonreporting agencies. Parole: Explanatory notes ************************** Alabama--Closed agency in 2012--one agency has been removed from the roster because they no longer supervise parolees for the state. California--Nonreporting agency in 2012--one respondent in California did not provide data. The December 31, 2011, population count was used to estimate the January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2012, populations. See Imputing entries and exits for nonreporting agencies in 2012 for additional information on imputing entries and exits for nonreporting agencies. California’s total parole population includes 12,979 persons on January 1, 2012, and 32,948 persons on December 31, 2012, who were under post-release community supervision as a result of California’s public safety realignment. These persons account for 29,298 parolees entering and 9,329 parolees exiting supervision during 2012. Appendix tables **************** Community supervision ********************* Appendix table 1. Adults under community supervision, 2012 Probation ********** Appendix table 2. Adults on probation, 2012 Appendix table 3. Characteristics of adults on probation, 2000, 2011, and 2012 Parole ****** Appendix table 4. Adults on parole, 2012 Appendix table 5. Adults entering parole, by type of entry, 2012 Appendix table 6. Characteristics of adults on parole, 2000, 2011, and 2012 Federal supervision ******************** Appendix table 7. Federal offenders under supervision, by sex and year, 2000, 2005, and 2010 Appendix table 8. Federal offenders under supervision, by type of offense and year, 2000, 2005, and 2010 ***************************************************** The Bureau of Justice Statistics, located in the Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice, collects, analyses, and disseminates statistical information on crime, criminal offenders, victims of crime, and the operation of justice systems at all levels of government. William J. Sabol is acting director. This report was written by Laura M. Maruschak and Thomas P. Bonczar. Erinn J. Herberman, Ph.D., and Sheri Simmons verified the report. Morgan Young and Jill Thomas edited the report, and Barbara Quinn produced the report. December 2013, NCJ 243826 *************************************************** ************************************************** Office of Justice Programs Innovation * Partnerships * Safer Neighborhoods www.ojp.usdoj.gov ************************************************** ******************** 12/5/2013/JER/10:57am *******************