U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics Crime Data Brief Homicide Trends in the United States: 2000 Update January 2003 NCJ 197471 --------------------------------------------------------------- This file is text only without graphics and many of the tables. A Zip archive of he tables in this report in spreadsheet format (.wk1) and the full report including tables and graphics in .pdf format re available from: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/htus00.htm This report is one in a series. More recent editions may be available. To view a list of all in the series go to http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pubalp2.htm#htius ---------------------------------------------------------------- By James Alan Fox, BJS Visiting Fellow and The Lipman Family Professor of Criminal Justice, Northeastern University and Marianne W. Zawitz, BJS Statistician Homicide rates recently declined to levels last seen in the late 1960's. The Nation's homicide rate was 4.6 per 100,000 population in 1950. It doubled from the mid-1960's to the late 1970's. In 1980 it peaked at 10.2 and fell to 7.9 in 1985. It rose again in the late 1980's and early 1990's to another peak of 9.8 in 1991. After 1991 the homicide rate declined sharply. In recent years the decline has slowed. The Nation's murder rate was 5.5 in 2000 compared to 5.7 in 1999. Graph: Homicide rates recently declined to levels last seen in the late 1960's Homicide victimization, 1950-2000 From 1950 to 1964, the rate remains constant at around 4.5 per 100,000. The rate increases to 9.8 per 100,000 in 1974. The rate dips slightly from 1975 to 1976, then increases to 10.2 in 1980. After 1981 it decreases reaching 8.3 per 100,000 in 1983 and then increasing again to 9.8 per 100,000 in 1991 where it remains constant until 1994. After 1994 it decreases sharply to 5.5 per 100,000 in 2000. Data is available at: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/tables/totalstab.htm These findings and many more are from Homicide Trends in the United States, a section of the BJS web site that describes homicide patterns and trends in the United States since 1976. The site displays 50 graphics and supporting tables updated with the 2000 data. Homicide is of interest not only because of its severity but also because it is considered by experts to be a fairly reliable barometer of violent crime. At a national level, no other crime is measured as accurately and precisely. For teens and young adults, homicide victimization rates exploded in the late 1980's but fell dramatically after 1993. During the same period, rates for older people declined. From 1999 to 2000, rates for adults ages 25-34 increased slightly while the rates for all other age groups declined slightly. Graph: Victimization rates for teens and young adults increased dramatically in the late 1980's while rates for older age groups declined. Homicide victimization by age, 1976-2000 Line chart with six lines for the age groups: under 14, 14-17, 18-24, 25-34, 35-49, and 50+. For persons under age 14, the rate of victimization begins at 2 per 100,000 in 1976 and remains constant through 1999, after which, it decreases to 1 per 100,000 in 2000. For persons ages 14-17, the rate of victimization begins at 5 per 100,000 in 1976 and gradually increases to 12 per 100,000 in 1993. After 1993, the rate decreases, reaching 5 per 100,000 in 2000. For persons ages 18-24, the rate of victimization begins at 14 per 100,000 in 1976 and increases to 18 per 100,000 in 1980. Then it decreases to 13 per 100,000 in 1984. The rate increases after 1984, reaching 24 per 100,000 in 1991 and remains relatively constant until 1994, when it then begins to decrease reaching 15 per 100,000 in 2000. For persons ages 25-34, the rate of victimization begins at 15 per 100,000 in 1976 and increases to 19 per 100,000 in 1980. Then it decreases reaching 14 per 100,000 in 1985. After 1985, the rate increases reaching 17 per 100,000 in 1990. After 1991, the rate decreases reaching 10 per 100,000 in 2000. For persons ages 35-49, the rate of victimization begins at 13 per 100,000 in 1976 where it remains constant until 1981, after which it begins to decrease, reaching 6 per 100,000 in 2000. For persons ages 50 and over, the rate of victimization begins at 7 per 100,000 in 1976 and remains constant until 1981. It then decreases, reaching 3 per 100,000 in 2000. Data available at: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/tables/vagetab.htm The homicide rates for teens reflect a reversal from dramatic increases in the early 1990's. From 1976 to 1985, the rates for young teens (ages 14-17) were below those for all older age groups. After 1995 they rose to exceed the rates for persons age 35 or older. They have now fallen back to levels below those of persons ages 35-49 -- levels similar to those from 1976 to 1985 -- reversing one of the most dramatic trends in homicide victimization. The sharp increase in homicides in the late 1980's and much of the subsequent decline were attributable to a rise and fall in gun violence by teens and young adults. Despite the moderation since 1993, the levels of gun homicides by teens and young adults remain well above those of the mid-1980's. Graph: Gun homicides by teens and young adults rose sharply beginning with the mid-1980's and have fallen since 1993. Homicide offending by age of offender and weapon use, 1976-2000 Three charts: one each for age groups 14-17, 18-24, and 25 and older Ages 14-17 chart Line chart with two lines: gun and nongun. For gun, the number of homicide offenders begins at 965 in 1976 and remains constant until 1986. After 1986 it increases to a high of 3,337 in 1994. After that it decreases to 1,084 in 2000. For nongun, the number of homicide offenders begins at 809 in 1976 and gradually decreases to 408 in 2000. Ages 18-24 chart Line chart with two lines: gun and nongun. For gun, the number of homicide offenders begins at 3,586 in 1976 and rises to 5,085 in 1980. Then it decreases to 3,335 in 1984, after which it increases sharply to 8,171 in 1993. Then it decreases to 5,162 in 2000. For nongun, the number of homicide offenders begins at 2,658 in 1976 and increases to 3,620 in 1980. It then decreases to 2,052 in 2000. Ages 25+ chart Line chart with two lines: gun and nongun For gun, the number of homicide offenders begins at 8,413 in 1976 and rises sharply to 10,131 in 1980. From that high it decreases to 8,051 in 1983 and remains relatively constant until 1991, after which it decreases, reaching 4,976 in 2000. For nongun, the number of homicide offenders begins at 3,817 in 1976 and gradually rises to 5,662 in 1991. After 1991 it decreases, reaching 3,912 in 2000. Data available at: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/tables/weapagetab.htm Other major findings-- Gender Males are most often the victims and the perpetrators in homicides: males were 10 times more likely than females to commit murder, and male and female offenders were more likely to target male than female victims. Race Blacks were 6 times more likely to be homicide victims and 7 times more likely than whites to commit homicides in 2000. Eighty-six percent of white murder victims were killed by whites, and 94% of black victims were killed by blacks. Among homicides in which the victim was killed by an acquaintance, 1 in 10 were interracial, whereas when the killer is a stranger, 3 in 10 were interracial. Age, race, and gender There were dramatic increases in both homicide victimization and offending rates among young black males in the late 1980's and 1990's before recent declines in both categories. From 1999 to 2000, older teens and young adults and older adults from all race and gender groups were no longer experiencing double digit declines in homicide rates. The rates for older black males and older teen and young adult black females increased slightly. The offending rates displayed similar patterns. Infanticide The number of infanticides (victims under age 5) has grown roughly in proportion to the number of young children in the population, with most perpetrators being a parent. Graph: Most children under age 5 who are victims of homicide are killed by a parent Homicides of children under age 5 by relationship with the offender, 1976-2000 Line chart with five lines: parent, friend or acquaintance, unknown, other family, and stranger. The percent of infanticides committed by a parent begins at 57% in 1976 and decreases to 47% in 1979. Then it increases to 59% in 1983, drops to 52% in 1984, and increases to 62% in 1985. From 1986 to 1992 it fluctuates between 52% and 58%, reaching a low of 50% in 1993. After 1993 it increases to 57% in 1999, and decreases to 52% in 2000. The percent of infanticides committed by a friend or acquaintance begins at 20% in 1976 and increases to 28% in 1993. After 1993 it decreases to 26% in 2000. The percent of infanticides where the relationship of the offender to the victim was unknown begins at 12% in 1976 and increases to 17% in 1979. It decreases to 8% in 1985 and then increases to 16% in 1990. After 1990 it decreases to 13% in 2000. The percent of infanticides committed by another family member begins at 8% in 1976 and mildly fluctuates between 4% and 9% through 2000, where it was 8%. The percent of infanticides committed by a stranger begins at 3% in 1976 and decreases to 1% in 2000. Data available at: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/tables/kidsreltab.htm Eldercide The number of homicides of persons age 65 and over has been decreasing. Yet among all age groups, the elderly have the highest percentage of homicides that occur during the commission of a felony. Intimate homicide There has been a decline in homicide of intimates, especially male victims. The number of white females killed by intimates rose in the mid-1980's and declined after 1993. Since 1998 the number of white women killed by intimates has increased but has not reached earlier levels. The number of intimate homicides for all other race and gender groups declined over the period; black males killed by intimates dropped 77%, white males by 54%, and black females by 53%. Graph: Except for white females, the number of intimate victims (husbands, wives, boyfriends, and girlfriends) in each race and gender group has fallen dramatically Homicides of intimates by gender and race of victim, 1976-2000 Line chart with four lines: white female, black female, white male, and black male. For white females, the number of victims begins at 849 in 1976 and rises slightly to reach 1,005 in 1985. After 1988 it decreases to 851 in 2000. For black females, the number of victims begins at 714 in 1976 and decreases gradually to 467 in 1984. After 1984 it increases to 542 in 1993. After 1993 it decreases to 333 in 2000. For white males, the number of victims begins at 493 in 1976, increases to 554 in 1981, and then decreases to 229 in 2000. For black males, the number of victims begins at 846 in 1976 and decreases to its lowest point of 192 in 2000. Data available at: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/tables/intgendertab.htm Law enforcement officers killed From 1976 to 2000, the number of law enforcement officers killed in the line of duty declined, mostly because of the decline in law enforcement officers killed with handguns. Multiple victims and offenders Few homicides involve multiple offenders, and fewer involve multiple victims. The percentage of homicides involving multiple offenders increased dramatically in the late 1980's and early 1990's, from 10% in 1976 to almost 18% in 2000. The percentage of homicides involving multiple victims increased gradually during the last two decades from just under 3% of all homicides in 1976 to 4% in 2000. Circumstances The mix of circumstances surrounding homicides has changed over the last two decades. Although the number of homicides resulting from arguments has declined, arguments remain the most frequently cited circumstance. City size The homicide victimization rates in cities with a population of 1 million or more have declined to the lowest level during the study period. In the late 1990's, the rates of homicide for cities in all groups of 250,000 or more population were about the same. Most of the swings in the prevalence of homicide during the past two decades occurred in cities with a population of 100,000 or more and in suburbs. Small cities and rural areas experienced relatively little change in homicide prevalence. Graph: Until recently, changes in homicide rates for large American cities varied by size Homicide victimization rates, by city size, 1976-2000 Line chart with four lines by city population of: 1 million +; 500,000 to 999,999; 250,000 to 499,999; and 100,000 to 249,999. For cities with populations of 1 million and above, the homicide rate in 1976 starts at 20.9 per 100,000 and increases to 30.9 per 100,000 in 1980. After 1980 it decreases, reaching 22.9 per 100,000 in 1987, and then increases to a high point of 35.5 per 100,000 in 1991. It then decreases, reaching 14.7 per 100,000 in 2000. For cities with populations of 500,000 to 999,999, the homicide rate in 1976 starts at 19.5 per 100,000, drops to 18.1 per 100,000 in 1977, and increases to 22.2 per 100,000 in 1981. After 1981 it decreases to 17.2 per 100,000 in 1983 and then increases, reaching 24.6 per 100,000 in 1990. It then decreases to 15.7 per 100,000 in 1996, before increasing, reaching 14.9 in 2000. For cities with populations of 250,000 to 499,999, the homicide rate in 1976 starts at 16.5 per 100,000 and increases to 22.1 per 100,000 in 1980. It then decreases to 16.1 per 100,000 in 1984 and then spikes to 19.8 per 100,000 in 1986. In 1987 it sharply drops to 16.3 per 100,000 and then increases, reaching 25.1 per 100,000 in 1993. After 1993 it decreases, reaching 14.0 per 100,000 in 2000. For cities with populations of 100,000 to 249,999, the homicide rate in 1976 starts at 11.3 per 100,000 and increases, reaching 14.3 per 100,000 in 1981. It sharply decreases to 10.7 per 100,000 in 1983 before increasing to 14.9 per 100,000 in 1991. In 1992 it sharply decreases to 13.2 per 100,000 and then increases, reaching 15.0 per 100,000 in 1994. After that, it decreases, reaching 9.5 per 100,000 in 2000. Data available at: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/tables/vcitytab.htm Region Compared to the national average, homicide rates, especially those involving guns, were higher in the South and lower in New England, the Mountain region, and the West North Central region of the United States. Clearances The number of homicides cleared by arrest of the perpetrator declined until recently: 63% of all homicides were cleared in 2000 compared to 79% in 1976. --------------------------------------------------------- New! State and local homicide trends and characteristics from Crime & Justice Data Online. Create customized tables by State since 1976 or by large localities since 1985. www/ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/dataonline/ ---------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- The Bureau of Justice Statistics is the statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Justice. Lawrence A. Greenfeld is director. This report was written by James Alan Fox, BJS Visiting Fellow, and Marianne W. Zawitz of BJS. Ms. Zawitz produced the report, and Rhonda Keith verified the data. Jayne Robinson reviewed and prepared the report for printing. January 2003, NCJ 197471 ---------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- Homicide Trends in the United States -- www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/homtrnd.htm Organized for easy access, this section of the BJS website contains graphics, text, and data concerning various aspects of homicide: Long term trends Demographic trends by -- Age Gender Race Age, gender, and race Trends in special groups -- Infanticide Eldercide Intimates Law enforcement officers Multiple victims and offenders Circumstances Weapons trends Regional trends Trends by city size Clearances The data for each of the 50 graphics are provided and linked to a spreadsheet which can be downloaded. Links to other web resources on homicide and violent crime are included. The site analyzes data collected by the Federal Bureau of Investigation through the Uniform Crime Reporting Program. Most of the data are from the Supplementary Homicide Reports and are adjusted for missing reports and unsolved cases. The data files are available from the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (www.icpsr.umich.edu/NACJD/index.html). Paper copies of the materials on the Internet site may be ordered by contacting the BJS Clearinghouse at 1-800-732-3277: "Homicide Trends in the United States" website, NCJ 197471, US$15.00 /FOR$16.50 postage and handling. ----------------------------------------------------------- End of file 01/21/03 ih