U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics Criminal Victimization 1999 Changes 1998-99 with Trends 1993-99 August 2000, NCJ 182734 --------------------------------------------------------------- This file is text only without graphics and many of the tables. A Zip archive of the tables in this report in spreadsheet format (.wk1) and the full report including tables and graphics in .pdf format are available from: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/cv99.htm This report is one in a series. More recent editions may be available. To view a list of all in the series go to http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pubalp2.htm#cv ----------------------------------------------------------------- By Callie Marie Rennison, Ph.D. BJS Statistician ----------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights Every major type of personal and property crime measured decreased between 1993 and 1999. * According to National Crime Victimization Survey data, from 1998 to 1999 the overall violent crime rate declined 10%, and the property crime rate fell 9%. * Victimization rates in 1999 are the lowest recorded since the survey's creation in 1973.***Footnote 1: Pre-1992 estimates were adjusted to account for the 1992 redesign of the National Crime victimization Survey.*** * The decline in overall violent crime rate resulted from a decrease in the simple assault rate. Apparent declines in robbery and aggravated assault rates were not significant. * Overall property crime rates fell between 1998 and 1999 due to lower rates of burglary and household theft. * The motor vehicle theft rate remained similar to 1998 rate. * During 1999 males and blacks were victims of overall violent crime at rates greater than those of whites and persons of other races. * 54% of overall violent crime victims knew the perpetrator(s) in 1999. Almost 7 in 10 rape or sexual assault victims, in contrast to fewer than 5 in 10 aggravated assault victims, knew the offender(s) as acquaintance, friend, relative, or intimate. * 44% of overall violent victimizations and 34% of all property crimes were reported to the police in 1999. The most frequently reported crime was motor vehicle theft (84%), while the least frequently reported victimization was personal theft (26%). -------------------------------------------------------------------- Approximately 28.8 million violent and property crimes were experienced by Americans age 12 or older during 1999 according to National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data. Overall victimizations included about 21.2 million property crimes (burglary, motor vehicle theft and household theft), 7.4 million violent crimes (rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault), and approximately 0.2 million personal thefts (pocket picking and purse snatching). In 1999 there were 33 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older. This represented a 10% decrease from the 37 per 1,000 in 1998. The rate of property victimization fell 9% from 1998 to 1999, from 217 to 198 per 1,000 households. The 1999 estimates of violence continued a consistent downward trend that began in 1994, while those for overall property crime began declining in 1974. Violent victimization rates fell 34% from 50 to 33 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older between 1993 and 1999. The 1993 data were the first from a complete year following the survey's redesign. The 1999 personal theft rate of 0.9 per 1,000 persons represents a significant decline from the 1993 values (2.3 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older). --------------------------------------------------------------- Victimization trends, 1973-99 The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) was a pioneering effort when it began in 1972 and has benefited from ongoing improvements. In addition, a major methodological redesign was completed in 1992. Using adjustments to account for the methodological improvements instituted in 1992, the NCVS provides a 26-year trend of criminal victimization now.***Footnote 2: For more information about the redesign, see The Effects of the Redesign on Victimization Estimates (NCJ 164381), National Crime Victimization Survey (Ncj 151169), National Crime Victimization Survey Redesign: Fact Sheet (NCJ 151170), Technical Background (NCJ 151172), and the Questions & Answers (NCJ 151171.*** Violent crime Between 1973 and 1994, violent crime victimization rates at times fluctuated. Since 1994 declines in violent crime rates have continued. Between 1994 and 1995 and between 1995 and 1996, a 10% reduction in the violent crime rate occurred, followed by 7% decreases between 1996 and 1997 and between 1997 and 1998. The 10% declines in the violent crime rate occurring in 1994-95, 1995-96, and 1998-99 are tied as the largest single-year percent decreases in NCVS history. In general, robbery trends over the last 27 years paralleled overall violent crime trends. Initially, robbery rates fell from 1974-78, then increased until 1981. Between 1981 and 1985 the rate rose slowly until 1994, and since have decreased to the current level of 7 robberies per 1,000 persons -- the lowest robbery rates recorded by the NCVS. From 1974 the rate of aggravated assault declined with some interruptions until the mid-1980's. After a few years of minimal change in both directions, the aggravated assault rate increased from 1990 to 1993. Since that time, aggravated assault rate fell steadily reaching the current level -- the lowest ever recorded. Simple assault, the most common form of violent crime measured by the NCVS, increased from 1974 to 1977, remained stable until 1979, then declined until 1989. Between 1990 and 1991, simple assault rates returned to the peak levels found during the late 1970's. Between 1991 and 1994, the rates rose to the highest levels recorded, 32 victimizations per 1,000 persons. Since 1994 simple assault rates have fallen to the lowest level recorded, 21 simple assaults per 1,000 persons. Property crime Aside from an increase between 1973 and 1974, the overall property crime rate has declined. After a period of slow decline that was interrupted by an increase from 1980 to 1981, the burglary rate fell each year through the rest of the period. The 1999 household burglary rate was about a third that of the adjusted rate of 1973 (34 burglaries per 1,000 households). Despite some periods of increases, the motor vehicle theft rate declined from 1973 through 1999. The 1999 rates were nearly half those seen in 1973 (19 versus 10 motor vehicle thefts per 1,000 households). In general between 1973 and 1985, motor vehicle theft rates fell. From 1985 through 1991, motor vehicle theft rates increased markedly peaking in 1991. Between 1992 and 1994 motor vehicle theft rates remained stable, then began to decline at a slow pace. Thefts increased between 1973 and 1974, then remained stable until 1977. From this time, the rate has declined steadily. In 1999 the theft rate was about 61% lower than the adjusted rate in 1973. --------------------------------------------------------------- Criminal victimization, 1998 to 1999 Violent crime The NCVS collects data on reported and unreported nonfatal violent crimes against persons age 12 or older in the United States. The Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program of the FBI collects data on homicide. Violent crimes measured by the NCVS Overall violent victimization includes rape, sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault and simple assault. Between 1998 and 1999, overall violent crime fell 10% from 37 to 33 victimizations per 1,000 persons. Declines in both attempted and completed violent crimes contributed to the decrease in overall violence during this period. Simple assault was the only of the 4 major components of overall violent crime to decrease significantly between 1998 and 1999. Apparent decreases in robbery and aggravated assault were not significant. However, two decreases emerged in specific subcategories of violent crime. Aggravated assault with injury decreased slightly, and robbery without injury fell significantly from 1998-99. Violent crime rates fell for many of the demographic groups considered between 1998 and 1999. The rate at which males, whites, and non-Hispanic persons were victimized decreased between 1998 and 1999. Number of violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older 1998 1999 Male 43.1 37.0 * Female 30.4 28.8 White 36.3 31.9 * Black 41.7 41.6 Other 27.6 24.5 Hispanic 32.8 33.8 Non-Hispanic 36.8 32.4 * *1998-99 difference is significant at the 95% confidence level. The slight difference between white and black overall violent crime rates evident in 1998 grew to a significant difference in 1999. Violent victimization rates fell among several of the age groups that historically have experienced the highest rates of violence. Number of violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older 1998 1999 12-15 years 82.4 74.4 16-19 years 91.1 77.4 * 20-24 years 67.3 68.5 25-34 years 41.5 36.3 ++ 35-49 years 29.9 25.2 * 50-64 years 15.4 14.4 65+years 2.8 3.8 1998-99 difference is significant at the -- *95% confidence level ++90% confidence level. Persons age 16 to 19 and 35 to 49 experienced violence at rates significantly lower in 1999 than they did in 1998. Persons age 25 to 34 were victimized in 1999 at rates somewhat lower than they were in 1998. An examination of income and violent crimes demonstrates that violent crime rates declined between 1998-99 for those who have historically experienced the lowest rates of violent victimization -- those with the highest annual household incomes. Persons residing in households with annual incomes of greater than $75,000 experienced violent crime at lower rates in 1999 than they did in 1998. Number of violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older 1998 1999 Less than $7,50 63.8 57.5 $7,500-$14,999 49.3 44.5 $15,000-$24,999 39.4 35.3 $25,000-$34,999 42.0 37.9 $35,000-$49,999 31.7 30.3 $50,000-$74,999 32.0 33.3 $75,000 plus 33.1 22.9 * *1998-99 difference is significant at the 95% confidence level. ------------------------------------------------------------- Change in violent victimization, by category, 1998-99 The figure shows the estimated annual percentage change in victimization rates from 1998 to 1999 for the categories that comprise violent crime: homicide, rape and sexual assault, aggravated assault, simple assault, and robbery. The crime categories are displayed vertically according to their 1999 rates per 1,000 population age 12 or older. Total violent (the sum of all types) is first with the highest rate, and murder is last with the lowest rate. Because the National Crime Victimization Survey relies on a sample of households, the rates and numbers from it are estimates and are not exact. Each bar shows the range within which the true percent change in rates from year to year is likely to fall. If a bar is clear of the "No change" line, we are reasonably certain a change occurred. If a bar crosses the "No change" line, there is a possibility that there was no change. The degree of certainty depends on where the bar crosses the line. The bars representing the crime categories in which a statistically significant year-to-year change occurred are outlined. The length of the range bars varies considerably from crime to crime, dependent on sample size and rarity of the event. The preliminary value for the change in homicide rates is given as a point and not a range of estimates because homicide rates are derived from nonsample data. The murder rates have no variance, but some discrepancies exist between UCR rates and Vital Statistics of the National Center for Health Statistics. --------------------------------------------------------------- Violent crime rates were similar in 1998 and 1999 among persons in the Northeast and South. For people in the West -- the area that historically has experienced the highest victimization rates -- victimization rates fell significantly from 47 to 37 victimizations per 1,000 persons. Persons living in the Midwest experienced violent crimes at somewhat lower rates in 1999 than in 1998 (40 versus 36 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons). Number of violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older 1998 1999 Northeast 31.1 29.6 Midwest 40.2 35.5 ++ South 31.0 30.2 West 46.7 36.9 * 1998-99 difference is significant at the -- *95% confidence level ++90% confidence level. Urbanites experienced violent victimization at rates significantly lower in 1999 than they did in 1998 (46 versus 40 per 1,000 urbanites). Number of violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older 1998 1999 Urban 46.3 39.8 * Suburban 35.5 32.8 Rural 27.6 24.9 *1998-99 difference is significant at the 95% confidence level. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter measured by the UCR Preliminary estimates from the UCR program of the FBI suggest that the number of murders declined about 8% between 1998 and 1999. Among regions, preliminary estimates suggest a decline in the number of murders of 10% in the South (the highest decline) and a 4% decline in the Northeast (the smallest decline). The Midwest and West each saw declines of 7%. See text box for more information. --------------------------------------------------------------- Murder in the United States, 1999 Statistics on murder are compiled from over 16,000 city, county, and State law enforcement agencies as part of the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports (UCR). In 1998 the UCR program stated that 16,914 murders occurred in the United States. Preliminary 1999 UCR data suggest about an 8% drop in the number of murders in the United States, resulting in an estimated 15,561 murders during 1999. The FBI defines murder in its annual Crime in the United States as the willful, nonnegligent killing of one human being by another. The incidence of murder varies across victim characteristics. The relationship between victim characteristics and homicide victims has remained stable year after year. * Males account for about three-quarters of all murder victims. * White and black persons each account for almost half of all homicide victims. * About 1 in 8 people murdered are less than 18 years of age. * Firearms are used in about 7 in 10 homicides. * Homicide rates tend to be the highest in the South and the lowest in the Northeast. * Metropolitan cities experience homicide in higher rates than smaller cities and rural areas. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Property crime In the NCVS, property crime includes burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft. Between 1998 and 1999, overall property crime rates fell 9% from 217 to 198 incidents per 1,000 households. The decline in overall property crime rates is explained by significant decreases in burglary and theft during this period. Burglary rates fell 11% from 39 to 34 victimizations between 1998 and 1999 due primarily to a significant decrease in completed burglary. Theft rates decreased 8% from 1998 to 1999 (168 to 154 thefts per 1,000 households). Property crime rates declined between 1998 and 1999 for several of the demographic groups examined. The overall property crime rate fell from 213 to 190 property victimizations per 1,000 households for white households. Fewer property victimizations occurred among both Hispanic and non-Hispanic households in 1999 than in 1998. Number of property crimes per 1,000 households 1998 1999 White 212.6 190.0 * Black 248.0 249.9 Other 224.5 206.3 Hispanic 267.6 232.5 * Non-Hispanic 212.5 194.6 * *1998-99 difference is significant at the 95% confidence level. Households in five of the seven income categories experienced property crime in 1999 at rates lower than those in 1998. Households with annual incomes between $7,500 and $14,999, between $25,000 and $34,999, and greater than $50,000 were victims of property crime at lower rates in 1999 than in 1998. Number of property crimes per 1,000 households 1998 1999 Less than $7,500 209.0 220.8 $7,500-$14,999 229.8 200.1 * $15,000-$24,999 211.0 214.9 $25,000-$34,999 233.8 199.1 * $35,000-$49,999 221.7 207.6 ++ $50,000-$74,999 248.6 213.6 * $75,000 or more 248.6 220.4 * *1998-99 difference is significant at the 95% confidence level. People in the Midwest, South, and West experienced less property crime in 1999 than they did in 1998. Those in the West -- the area with the highest rate of property crime historically -- experienced a 14% decrease in property crime rates between 1998 and 1999 (282 versus 243 property crimes per 1,000 households). Number of property crimes per 1,000 households 1998 1999 Northeast 159.3 159.5 Midwest 214.0 199.9 * South 213.5 191.4 * West 282.3 243.1 * Urban 274.2 256.3 * Suburban 204.5 181.4 * Rural 173.5 159.8 ++ Home owned 189.6 170.4 * Home rented 270.6 251.9 * 1998-99 difference is significant at the -- *95% confidence level ++90% confidence level. Urban and suburban households experienced significantly lower, and rural households sustained slightly lower rates of property crime in 1999 compared to 1998. Property crime rates fell during the same period for persons who owned and persons who rented their home. Characteristics of violent crime victims, 1999 The well-documented relationship between victimization and demographics was demonstrated in 1999. Violent crime rates show that groups that were most vulnerable to victimization in the past continued to be most vulnerable in 1999. Gender of victim Males were victims of overall violent crime, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault at rates higher than females in 1999. Males experienced violent crime at rates 28% greater (37 compared to 29 victimizations per 1,000), and were robbed at rates more than 2 times that (5 compared to 2 robberies per 1,000) of females. Females were victims of rape and sexual assault at 7.5 times greater the rate of males. During 1999, 3 females in contrast to 0.4 males per 1,000 were raped or sexually assaulted. Age of victim In 1999 persons age 12-15, 16-19, and 20-24 experienced similar rates of overall violent victimization (74, 77, and 69 victimizations per 1,000 persons, respectively). These youngest persons sustained violent crime at rates higher than persons in all other age categories. Among persons ages 25 and older, violent victimization rates decreased as age increased. For example, 36 persons age 25-34 compared to 4 persons age 65 and greater per 1,000 were victimized during 1999. Race of victim Blacks were victims of overall violent crime in 1999 at rates higher than whites and than other races considered together.*"Other races" refers to an aggregation including Asians, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, Alaska Natives, and American Indians.* Forty-two blacks, 32 whites, and 25 persons of other races per 1,000 were victimized during this time. Blacks experienced rape/sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault at higher rates than whites. Compared to persons of other races considered together, blacks were more likely to experience overall violent crime and simple assault. Whites experienced overall violent crime, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault at higher rates than persons of other races taken as a whole. Ethnicity of victim Non-Hispanics and Hispanics were victims of overall violent crime and rape or sexual assault at similar rates in 1999. Non-Hispanics were slightly more likely to become a victim of a simple assault, while Hispanics were more likely to become a victim of a robbery and an aggravated assault during the same period. Household income In general, higher annual household incomes were associated with lower violent victimization rates during 1999. Individuals in households with annual incomes greater than $75,000 were victims of violent crime at rates lower than other income categories (23 per 1,000 persons). In contrast, persons in households earning less than $7,500 annually experienced the highest rate of violence of all income categories (58 per 1,000 persons). Marital status In 1999 those who never married were the most likely to be violent crime victims, followed by those who were divorced or separated. These persons were more likely to be victimized than married individuals, who, in turn, had higher victimization rates than widowed persons. Those who never married became violent crime victims at 10 times the rate of widowed persons and over 4 times the rate of married persons. Region Western and Midwestern residents had similar and higher violent victimization rates than people in other regions in 1999 (37 and 36 victimizations per 1,000 persons, respectively). Similarly, Northeastern and Southern residents experienced similar rates of violent crime (30 per 1,000 persons). Residence Urban residents experienced overall violent victimization at rates higher than suburban residents, and suburban residents experienced overall violent victimization at rates higher than rural residents in 1999. During 1999, 40 urban residents, 33 suburban resident and 25 rural residents per 1,000 persons were victims of a violent crime per 1,000 persons. Similar patterns in victimization rates occurred for robbery, total assault and simple assault. Only one geographic difference emerged for rape and sexual assault -- urban residents were victimized at almost twice the rate of rural residents. Victim-offender relationship About half (54%) of violent crime victims knew the offender(s) in 1999. Rape or sexual assault victims were most likely to know the offender(s) (69%), and robbery victims were least likely to know the offender(s) (34%). Victims identified intimate partners as offenders in 11% of overall violent crimes, 20% of rape or sexual assaults, and 8% of aggravated assault. Female victims were more likely than male victims to identify an intimate as an offender. Intimates were offenders in 20% of the overall violence against females, versus 3% of the violence against males. Intimates committed 16% of the aggravated assaults experienced by females compared to 3% experienced by males. Males experienced violence at the hands of strangers in higher percentages than females. Strangers committed 55% of the overall violence experienced by males compared to 32% of that sustained by females. Weapon use Twenty-five percent of all violent victimizations were committed by an offender(s) who had a firearm, knife, or other weapon. The presence or absence of a firearm differed across the type of crime considered. For example, 1% of rapes or sexual assaults versus 24% of robberies occurred with firearm present. Characteristics of property crime victims, 1999 Race of household head Blacks experienced property crimes, regardless of the type of property crime, at higher rates than whites in 1999. For example, 250 black and 190 white households per 1,000 were victims of property crime overall during 1999. Similar findings emerged for burglary as 53 black and 32 white households per 1,000 households were burglarized. Persons of other races experienced overall property crime and burglaries at rates lower than blacks, but were victims of motor vehicle theft and theft at rates equal to blacks. Ethnicity of household head Hispanic households were characterized by higher rates of overall property crime, motor vehicle theft, and theft than non-Hispanic households in 1999. Hispanic households were almost twice as likely to have a motor vehicle stolen than non-Hispanic households (17 versus 9 motor vehicle thefts per 1,000 households). Hispanic and non-Hispanic households were burglarized at similar rates during 1999 (37 and 34 burglaries per 1,000 households, respectively). Household income The relationship between annual household income and property crimes depended upon the crime considered. For example, no clear relationship between household income and overall property crime emerged during 1999. The highest and lowest income categories were victims of property crimes at equal rates (about 220 per 1,000 households), while the victimization rates of intermediate income categories varied. In contrast, the higher the annual household income, the lower the burglary rate, but the higher the rate of theft. Region, residence, and home ownership Western households had the highest rate of overall property crime, motor vehicle theft, and theft rates of all regions in 1999. Western, Southern, and Midwestern households experienced similar burglary rates. Northeastern households had the lowest burglary rate in the Nation. Urban households were the most vulnerable to overall property crime, burglary, motor vehicle theft and theft during 1999. Suburban households were more likely to experience all forms of property crime than were rural households, with the exception of burglary. Rural households were burglarized at rates significantly greater than suburban households during this period (33 versus 27 burglaries per 1,000 households, respectively). Property crime was significantly more likely to occur among households residing in rented property. Such households experienced 48% higher rates of overall property crime, 85% higher rates of burglary, 55% higher rates of motor vehicle theft, and 40% higher rates of theft than households residing in residences that they owned. Reporting to the police Victimizations were reported to police in over 4 in 10 violent crimes and in over 3 in 10 property crimes in 1999. Robbery was the most often reported violent crime (61%) while rape or sexual assault was the least often violent crime reported to law enforcement (28%). Police were notified in approximately a quarter of personal thefts like purse snatching and pocket picking. Motor vehicle theft continued to be the most often reported property crime (84%), while theft was the least often reported to the police (27%). The percentages of victimizations reported to police in 1999 were similar to those reported in 1998, with three exceptions. The percentage of thefts reported to the police fell significantly between 1998 and 1999, while reporting of all victimizations and of property crime overall fell somewhat. Percent of crime reported to the police 1998 1999 All victimizations 38.0 36.3%++ Violent crime 45.9% 43.9% Rape/sexual assault 31.6 28.3 Robbery 62.0 61.2 Aggravated assault 57.6 55.3 Simple assault 40.3 38.5 Personal theft 34.0% 25.9% Property crime 35.3% 33.8%++ Burglary 49.4 49.3 Motor vehicle theft 79.7 83.7 Theft 29.2 27.1* 1998-99 difference is significant at the -- *95% confidence level ++90% confidence level. Violent victimization of females was reported to police in significantly higher percentages than victimizations of males in 1999 (49% versus 40%). The percentage of violent victimization reported to the police differed by race and Hispanic origin. The violent victimization of a black woman was reported (49%) to police at significantly higher percentages than victimizations of white men (40%), black men (37%), and Hispanic men (38%). Black women also had slightly higher percentage of reporting than women of other races considered together. In contrast to the significant differences in reporting to police of inmate partner violence against black (67%) and white (50%) women, reporting to law enforcement of overall violence against women was similar for the two races. Percent of crime Victim gender reported to the police and race or ethnicity Violent Property Total 43.9% 33.8% Male 39.5% 33.7% White 39.8 33.8 Black 36.6 32.0 Other 41.6 36.0 Female 49.3% 33.9% White 49.8 34.2 Black 49.4 33.0 Other 38.0 31.9 Male Hispanic 37.6% 28.1% Non-Hispanic 40.0 34.3 Female Hispanic 47.3% 28.2% Non-Hispanic 49.7 34.3 Apparent differences in reporting to police of property crimes of household characteristics like race and gender of the household head were not significant. Victimization trends, 1993-99 The NCVS underwent an extensive redesign in 1992 based on improvements that the National Academy of Sciences recommended. In 1993 the first full year of data was collected under the current design. For that reason, trends in this discussion are presented with 1993 as the beginning point. The rate of every major violent and property crime measured in the NCVS -- rape/sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, simple assault, burglary, theft and motor vehicle theft -- fell significantly between 1993 and 1999. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter Based on preliminary FBI data for 1999, the rate and overall number of murders in the United States continued a steady decline that began in 1993. According to preliminary estimates, 15,561 murders occurred in the United States in 1999 compared to 24,530 recorded in 1993. While homicide numbers continue to change, victim characteristics remain unchanged. Whites and blacks continue to comprise about half of murder victims each. Approximately 75% of homicide victims are male, older than 18, and live in the South. As found in the past about 70% of homicide victims were killed with a firearm during 1998. Violent crime The overall violent crime rate fell 34% from 50 to 33 victimizations per 1,000 persons between 1993 and 1999. Further significant declines were noted in rates of rape/sexual assault (down 32%), robbery (down 40%), aggravated assault (down 44%), and simple assault (down 29%). Personal theft Personal theft rates decreased 61% from 2.3 personal thefts in 1993 to 0.9 per 1,000 persons in 1999. Property crime Every major type of property crime as well as property crime overall declined between 1993 and 1999. Rates of household burglary fell 41%, motor vehicle theft fell 47%, and theft fell 36%. The largest percentage decrease emerged in attempted motor vehicle thefts (down 64%) which fell from 7 attempted motor vehicle thefts in 1993 to 2 attempts in 1999 per 1,000 households. Characteristics of victims Most demographic categories -- gender, race, Hispanic origin, household income, and urbanicity -- experienced significantly decreasing rates of violent victimization, 1993-99. The rate of violence against females or persons living in households with an annual income of $7,500-$14,999 or $25,000-$34,999 declined slightly, accounting for an average of 2 fewer violent victimizations of per 1,000 annually, 1993-99. ------------------------------------------------------------- Trends in violent victimization, 1973-99 Because the National Crime Victimization Survey relies on a sample of households, the rates and numbers from it are estimates and are not exact. The figure shows trends in the violent victimization rate: Each bar shows the range within which the true victimization rate is likely to fall for the indicated year, and the line represents the best estimate, the most likely value for the rate in each year, which is the published number. There is a greater likelihood that the true rate will fall near the best estimate, and the bars reflect that likelihood: The darker the bar segment, the greater the likelihood. Because the estimates are based on samples, their precision depends on the sample size: The larger the sample, the better the estimate and the smaller the range bars. Some year-to-year changes are so large that contiguous bars do not touch (1980-81, 1982-83, 1990-91, 1994-95, and 1995-96), suggesting statistically significant increases and decreases. Where there is a lot of overlap (1973-76 and 1986-90), the year-to-year changes may be too small to be statistically significant. Even though the victimization rates have a range of possible values, general trends are readily apparent. Violent crime rates increased from the early 1970's to the early 1980's, then fell until around 1986. For several years in the late 1980's, violent crime rates were stable, but increased in the early 1990's and fell after 1994 through 1999. For more explanation of this graph, see the BJS Technical Report Displaying Violent Crime Trends Using Estimates from the National Crime Victimization Survey, NCJ 167881. --------------------------------------------------------------- Significantly declining trends in violent crimes meant that whites and non- Hispanics sustained 3 fewer, blacks and Hispanics sustained 5 fewer, and persons of other races experienced 4 fewer violent victimizations per 1,000 persons annually, 1993-99. While there were decreasing trends in violent crime at all income levels, the decrease was greatest among persons with the lowest incomes. From 1993 to 1999 persons with household incomes below $7,500 annually sustained 5 fewer victimizations per 1,000 persons. Those with annual household incomes of $35,000 or more experienced 3 fewer violent victimizations per 1,000 each year, 1993-99. Property rates between 1993 and 1999 declined significantly for every demographic group considered. White, black, and other race households sustained a minimum of 21 fewer property crimes per 1,000 annually (21,22, and 25 respectively). Hispanic households had the greatest decline across the 7 years of all groups 36 per 1,000 households fewer property crimes annually. Among residences, urban households benefited from the greatest decline in property crime rates with an average of 26 fewer property crimes per 1,000 for each succeeding year. Households with the highest annual income sustained 29 fewer property crimes per 1,000 annually, 1993-99. Survey methodology This Bulletin presents data on non-lethal violence and property crimes from the National Crime Victimization Survey, and data on homicide from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting program. The NCVS collects data on nonfatal crimes against persons age 12 and older, reported and not reported to the police, from a nationally representative sample of households in the United States. The NCVS provides information about victims (age, gender, race, ethnicity, marital status, income and educational level), offenders (gender, race, approximate age, and victim-offender relations) and criminal offenses (time and place of occurrence, use of weapons, nature of injury, and economic consequences). In 1999, 42,895 households and 77,750 people age 12 or older were interviewed. For the 1999 NCVS data presented here, the response rate is 93% of eligible households and 89% of eligible individuals. The data in this Bulletin were collected during the calendar year being estimated. Because of the retrospective nature of the survey, the estimates in this bulletin include some incidents that actually occurred during the previous year. Analyses comparing the victimization information collected in a calendar year (termed a collection year) to that obtained about victimizations experienced in the same calendar year (called a data year) show only a small difference between the two methods. For example, for 1995 the violent crime rate based on data year victimization was 44.5 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, compared to 46.6 based on the collection year method. Differences in estimates obtained from data year and collection year methods are greater during periods of changing crime rates and less during periods of stable rates. Testing trends and annual differences in violent and property victimization When a statement is made describing a higher or lower rate in different years, it was tested for significance using a computer program designed for the NCVS. Tests of this type determine whether a rate or percentage in one year differs from that of another, regardless of intervening variation. For example the percent changes in victimization rates presented in table 7 were based on this test. When a statement is made describing the increase or decrease of a linear trend, it was tested using a linear trend test. This test compares the slope of the trend to a horizontal line that has a slope of zero, determining whether the slope generated from a change in an estimate differs from a flat trend. For example, the linear trend test may be conducted as a regression equation with an independent variable of time and a dependent variable violent victimization. A regression coefficient (b) and its corresponding standard error (sigma) are computed, and a t-statistic - the ratio b/sigma - is calculated. If the t-statistic is greater than 1.96 for a two-tailed test, (or greater than 1.645 for a one-tailed test), the slope is considered significantly different from zero. If the t-statistic is greater than 1.645 for a two-tailed test, (or 1.28 for a one-tailed test), the slope is considered slightly different from zero. If the t-statistics are less than the critical values, the analyst must conclude that the change in the estimate did not differ significantly from zero or was not statistically significant. This Bulletin, the first in BJS to report from linear trend tests, used them in Characteristics of victims, on pages 11 and 12. In previous NCVS reports, testing on trend end points was used. Standard error computations Comparisons made in this Bulletin were tested to determine if observed differences were statistically significant. Differences described as higher, lower, or different in this bulletin passed a hypothesis test at the .05 level of statistical significance (95% confidence level). That is, the tested difference was greater than twice the standard error of that difference. For comparisons which were statistically significant at the .10 level of statistical significance (90% confidence level), the term somewhat different, marginally different or slight difference is used to note the nature of the difference. Caution is required when comparing estimates not explicitly discussed in the bulletin text. What may appear to be large differences may not test as statistically at the 95% or even the 90% confidence level. Significance testing calculations were conducted at the Bureau of Justice Statistics using statistical programs developed specifically for the NCVS by the U.S.Census Bureau. These programs take consider the complex NCVS sample design when calculating generalized variance estimates. The Bureau of Justice Statistics is the statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Justice. Jan M. Chaiken, Ph.D., is director. This report continues the BJS Bulletin series of Criminal Victimization. BJS Bulletins present the first release of findings from permanent data collection programs such as the National Crime Victimization Survey. Callie M. Rennison, BJS Statistician, wrote this report under the supervision of Michael Rand. Marianne Zawitz, BJS Statistician, and Michael Maltz, BJS Fellow, produced figures 1 and 2. Cathy Maston and David Carlis provided statistical review. Tom Hester and Ellen Goldberg produced and edited the report. Jayne Robinson administered final production. August 2000, NCJ 182734 End of file 8/24/00 ih