Criminal Victimization 1998 Changes 1997-98 with Trends 1993-98 This report is one in a series. More recent editions may be available. To view a list of all in the series go to http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pubalp2.htm#cv Revised 8/31/99 th U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics July 1999, NCJ 176353 By Callie Marie Rennison, Ph.D. BJS Statistician ************************************************** *********** Highlights *********** * National Crime Victimization Survey violent crime rates declined 7%, and property crime rates fell 12% from 1997 to 1998. The 1998 rates are the lowest recorded since the survey's inception in 1973. (Note: After adjusting rates following the 1992 NCVS redesign.) * Based on preliminary FBI data, the number of murders dropped about 8% between 1997 and 1998. * The overall 1-year decline in violent crime resulted from a slight yet significant decline in aggravated assault rates. From 1997 to 1998 no significant changes in rates of rape or sexual assault, robbery, or simple assault occurred. * Every major type of crime measured -- rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, simple assault, burglary, theft, and motor vehicle theft -- decreased significantly between 1993 and 1998. * For virtually every demographic category considered, violent victimization decreased between 1993 and 1998. Male violent victimization rates fell 39%, and black violent victimization rates fell 38%. * Property crime rate declines occurred across all demographic groups between 1993 and 1998. Overall property crime rates declined at least 31% for white, black, urban, and suburban households. * In 1998 males were victimized at significantly higher rates than females, and blacks were victimized at somewhat higher rates than whites. Non-Hispanics and Hispanics were victimized at about the same rate. * About half the violent crime victims knew the offender(s) in 1998. Over 7 in 10 rape or sexual assault victims knew the attacker(s), and 5 in 10 aggravated assault victims knew the offender(s). * Offenders used a weapon in about a fourth of violent victimizations in 1998. About 4 in 10 robbery victims faced a weapon, as did fewer than 1 in 10 rape or sexual assault victims. * From 1993 to 1998, almost half of all violent victimizations were reported to the police. Females and blacks reported violent victimizations in higher percentages than males and whites, while no reporting differences emerged between non-Hispanics and Hispanics during the same period. ************************************************** Americans age 12 or older experienced approximately 31 million violent and property victimizations according to National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data. Overall criminal victimizations included about 22.9 million property crimes (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and household theft), 8.1 million violent crimes (rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault), and about 0.3 million personal thefts (pocket picking and purse snatching). The 31 million criminal victimizations in 1998 represent a decline from 35 million victimizations in 1997 and continue a downward trend that began in 1994. Criminal victimization estimates from 1998 are the lowest recorded since 1973, when approximately 44 million victimizations occurred. Between 1993 and 1998 violent crime rates fell 27%, from 50 to 37 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older. The 1998 personal theft rate was equal to the 1997 rate but lower than the 1993 theft rate. Property crime decreased 12% from 1997 to 1998 and 32% from 1993 to 1998. The 1998 rate of 217 property crimes per 1,000 households is lower than both the 1997 and 1993 levels. Every major NCVS violent and property crime rate fell from 1993 to 1998. Almost every demographic group had lower rates of violent and property victimization during the same period. ************************************ Criminal victimization, 1997 to 1998 ************************************ ************* Violent crime ************* The NCVS collects data on nonfatal violent crimes against persons age 12 or older, both reported and not report- ed to the police. The Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program of the FBI collects data on murder and nonnegligent manslaughter. ********************************** Violent crime measured by the NCVS ********************************** Overall violent victimization includes rape, sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault (table 1). The 7% decrease in violent crime between 1997 and 1998 from 39 to 37 victimizations per 1,000 persons was marginally significant. While 1998 completed violence rates did not change from 1997 values, attempted or threatened violent crime fell somewhat (27 to 25 victimizations per 1,000 persons). **********************Table 1 **************************** Table 1. Criminal victimization, 1997-98 Victimization rates (per 1,000 persons age 12 or older or per Number of victimiza- 1,000 households) tions (1,000's) Percent change, Type of crime 1997 1998 1997 1998 1997-98 All crimes 34,788 31,307 ... ... Personal crimes/a 8,971 8,412 40.8 37.9 -7.1 % * Crimes of violence 8,614 8,116 39.2 36.6 -6.6 + Completed violence 2,679 2,564 12.2 11.6 -4.9 Attempted/threatened violence 5,935 5,553 27.0 25.0 -7.4 + Rape/Sexual assault 311 333 1.4 1.5 7.1 Rape/attempted rape 194 200 0.9 0.9 0.0 Rape 115 110 0.5 0.5 0.0 Attempted rape 79 89 0.4 0.4 0.0 Sexual assault 117 133 0.5 0.6 20.0 Robbery 944 886 4.3 4.0 -7.0 Completed/property taken 607 610 2.8 2.7 -3.6 With injury 243 170 1.1 0.8 -27.3 + Without injury 363 439 1.7 2.0 17.6 Attempted to take property 337 277 1.5 1.2 -20.0 With injury 73 70 0.3 0.3 0.0 Without injury 265 207 1.2 0.9 -25.0 Assault 7,359 6,897 33.5 31.1 -7.2 + Aggravated 1,883 1,674 8.6 7.5 -12.8 + With injury 595 547 2.7 2.5 -7.4 Threatened with weapon 1,288 1,126 5.9 5.1 -13.6 + Simple 5,476 5,224 24.9 23.5 -5.6 With minor injury 1,258 1,175 5.7 5.3 -7.0 Without injury 4,218 4,048 19.2 18.2 -5.2 Personal theft/b 357 296 1.6 1.3 -18.8 Property crimes 25,817 22,895 248.3 217.4 -12.4 % * Household burglary 4,635 4,054 44.6 38.5 -13.7 * Completed 3,893 3,380 37.4 32.1 -14.2 * Forcible entry 1,497 1,310 14.4 12.4 -13.9 * Unlawful entry without force 2,396 2,070 23.0 19.7 -14.3 * Attempted forcible entry 742 674 7.1 6.4 -9.9 Motor vehicle theft 1,433 1,138 13.8 10.8 -21.7 * Completed 1,007 822 9.7 7.8 -19.6 * Attempted 426 316 4.1 3.0 -26.8 * Theft 19,749 17,703 189.9 168.1 -11.5 * Completed/c 18,960 17,074 182.3 162.1 -11.1 * Less than $50 7,218 6,169 69.4 58.6 -15.6 * $50 to $249 6,680 6,083 64.2 57.8 -10.0 * $250 or more 3,955 3,693 38.0 35.1 -7.6 + Attempted 789 629 7.6 6.0 -21.1 * Note: Completed violent crimes include completed rape, sexual assault, robbery with or without injury, aggravated assault with injury, and simple assault with minor injury. The total population age 12 or older was 221,880,960 in 1998 and 219,839,810 in 1997. The total number of households was 105,322,920 in 1998 and 103,988,670 in 1997. . . . Not applicable. * The difference from 1997 to 1998 is significant at the 95% confidence level. + The difference from 1997 to 1998 is significant at the 90% confidence level. a/The NCVS is based on interviews with victims and therefore cannot measure murder. b/Includes pocket picking, purse snatching, and attempted purse snatching not shown separately. c/Includes thefts with unknown losses. *******************End of table 1 ******************** Overall rates of assault, aggravated assault, and aggravated assaults involving threats with a weapon decreased somewhat from 1997 to 1998. Overall robbery rates remained unchanged, although completed robberies with injury declined slightly. Rape or sexual assault, simple assault, and personal theft rates remained unchanged from 1997 levels. Several demographic groups were less vulnerable to violent victimization in 1998 than the year before. For blacks the violent victimization rate fell from 49 to 42 victimizations per 1,000 blacks, while rates for Hispanics fell from 43 to 33 victimizations per 1,000 Hispanics. Number of violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older 1997 1998 Male 45.8 43.1 Female 33.0 30.4 White 38.3 36.3 Black 49.0 41.7* Hispanic 43.1 32.8* Non-Hispanic 38.3 36.8 *1997-98 difference is significant at the 95% confidence level. Violent victimization rates declined between 1997 and 1998 for individuals from age 25 to 34 and those 65 or older. Number of violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older 1997 1998 12-15 years 87.9 82.4 16-19 years 96.2 91.1 20-24 years 67.8 67.3 25-34 years 46.9 41.5* 35-49 years 32.2 29.9 50-64 years 14.6 15.4 65 + years 4.4 2.8* *1997-98 difference is significant at the 95% confidence level. When considered by income level, persons in households with incomes between $34,999 and $50,000 annually had a lower risk of violent victimization in 1998 than in 1997. For no other income levels did violent victimization rates change appreciably from 1997 to 1998. Number of violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older 1997 1998 Less than $7,500 71.0 63.8 $7,500-$14,999 51.2 49.3 $15,000-$24,999 40.1 39.4 $25,000-$34,999 40.2 42.0 $35,000-$49,999 38.7 31.7* $50,000-$74,999 33.9 32.0 $75,000 + 30.7 33.1 *1997-98 difference is significant at the 95% confidence level. By region, only residents in the South were measurably less vulnerable to violent crime in 1998 than in 1997. Number of violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older 1997 1998 Northeast 34.6 31.1 Midwest 36.4 40.2 South 38.1 31.0* West 48.4 46.7 *1997-98 difference is significant at the 95% confidence level. Urban violent victimization decreased marginally between 1997 and 1998. Declines in violent victimization of blacks resulted from decreases in simple assault (28 to 22 simple assaults per 1,000 blacks). Hispanic rate declines came from decreases in aggravated assault (10 versus 6 aggravated assaults per 1,000 Hispanics). Because of small sample sizes, determining specific sources of declines for other demographic groups was not possible. Number of violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older 1997 1998 Urban 51.8 46.3+ Suburban 36.4 35.5 Rural 30.0 27.6 +1997-98 difference is significant at the 90% confidence level. ********************************** Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter measured by the FBI ********************************** Preliminary estimates from the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program of the FBI suggest that the murder rate declined about 9% between 1997 and 1998. The number of murders in the United States decreased 8%. Similar declines occurred across all population categories of cities and all regions in the Nation, according to the preliminary data. ************** Property crime ************** The NCVS defines property crime as a composite of burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft. Overall property crime rates fell 12% from 248 to 217 incidents per 1,000 households between 1997 and 1998. Burglary rates fell 14%, from 45 to 39 victimizations per 1,000 households, between 1997 and 1998. Rates for all categories of burglary except attempted forced entry decreased from 1997. Motor vehicle theft rates fell 22% from 1997 to 1998 because of a 20% decline in completed motor vehicle theft (from 10 down to 8 completed motor vehicle thefts per 1,000 households), and a decrease of 27% in attempted motor vehicle theft (from 4 to 3 attempted motor vehicle thefts per 1,000 households). Household theft rates decreased 12% from 1997 to 1998 (from 190 to 168 thefts per 1,000 households) because of decreases in completed thefts (down 11%), theft of items valued at less than $50 (down 16%), theft of items valued between $50 and $249 (down 10%), and a slight decline in thefts of items valued at $250 or more (down 8%). Attempted household theft rates declined 21% from 1997 to 1998. Except for the categories described below, households of all races, ethnicities, incomes, regions, and statuses of home ownership experienced declines in overall property crime rates from 1997 to 1998. Overall property crime rates fell slightly for rural households. Households headed by an Asian or American Indian ("other races"), households with an annual income between $7,499 and $15,000, and households in the Midwest had no change in the property crime rate from 1997 to 1998. The overall property crime rate for white households fell because of decreases in every type of property crime measured: burglary, motor vehicle theft, and household theft. The overall property crime rate for black households declined because of a decrease in household theft only. Non-Hispanic households had a rate decline in all categories of property crime. Declining property crime rates for Hispanic households resulted from decreasing burglary and household theft rates and a slight decrease in the rate of motor vehicle theft. ************************************ Characteristics of violent crime victims, 1998 ************************************ Victimization research consistently has found that victimization rates are related to individual demographic characteristics (table 2). Analyses demonstrate that demographic groups which were historically susceptible to victimization continue to be the most susceptible to victimization in 1998. ***************************Table 2***************************** Table 2. Rates of violent crime and personal theft, by gender, age, race, and and Hispanic origin, 1998 Victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older Violent crimes All Rape/ Assault Per- Characteristic crimes of Sexual Aggra- sonal of victim Population violence* assault Robbery Total vated Simple theft Gender Male 107,595,530 43.1 0.2 4.6 38.3 10.5 27.8 1.2 Female 114,285,430 30.4 2.7 3.5 24.3 4.7 19.5 1.5 Age 12-15 15,781,590 82.4 3.5 7.7 71.2 12.2 58.9 2.0 16-19 15,620,290 91.1 5.0 11.4 74.7 19.0 55.7 2.3 20-24 17,663,220 67.3 4.6 7.9 54.8 16.0 38.8 1.8 25-34 39,263,480 41.5 1.7 4.2 35.6 8.4 27.3 1.0 35-49 63,428,180 29.9 0.7 3.2 26.1 6.8 19.3 1.2 50-64 37,939,800 15.4 0.2 1.7 13.5 3.3 10.2 1.6 65 or older 32,184,400 2.8 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.5 1.8 0.8 Race White 185,831,440 36.3 1.5 3.7 31.1 7.0 24.2 1.2 Black 27,020,600 41.7 2.0 5.9 33.7 11.9 21.8 2.1 Other 9,028,930 27.6 0.7 4.4 22.5 6.6 15.9 1.4 Hispanic origin Hispanic 21,699,490 32.8 0.8 6.3 25.6 6.1 19.5 1.7 Non-Hispanic 197,506,660 36.8 1.6 3.7 31.5 7.6 23.9 1.3 *The National Crime Victimization Survey includes as violent crime rape/sexual assault, robbery, and assault, but not murder and manslaughter. ***********************End of table 2************************** **************** Gender of victim **************** For overall violent crime and simple assault, the rates for males were 30% greater than those for females in 1998. Males were twice as likely as females to be victims of aggravated assault (11 versus 5 victimizations per 1,000 persons), while females sustained rape or sexual assault at a rate 14 times that of males (2.7 versus 0.2 victimizations per 1,000 persons). Males had slightly greater robbery victimization rates than females in 1998 (5 incidents versus 4 incidents per 1,000 persons). ************** Race of victim ************** Blacks had marginally higher overall violent crime rates than whites and significantly higher rates than persons of other races in 1998. Whites and persons of other races differed in the rates of violent victimization overall, robbery, and simple assault in 1998. Blacks and whites did not differ significantly in the rates of victimization by robbery, simple assault, and rape or sexual assault. ******************* Ethnicity of victim ******************* Non-Hispanics and Hispanics experienced similar rates of overall violent crime in 1998. Non-Hispanics had higher rape or sexual assault rates and somewhat higher simple assault rates than Hispanics. Robbery rates were higher for Hispanics than for non-Hispanics (6 versus 4 incidents per 1,000 persons). No difference in aggravated assault or personal theft rates was found between the groups. ************* Age of victim ************* In general, the younger the person, the greater the overall violent victimization rate in 1998. Persons age 16-19 sustained violent victimizations at higher rates than persons in other age categories. Persons age 12-15 were raped or sexually assaulted at 4 times the rate of persons 50 or older; those age 16-24, at a rate 5 times that of persons age 50 or older. **************** Household income **************** Violent crime rates increased as household income decreased in 1998 (table 3). Persons in households with annual incomes greater than $35,000 had lower violent crime rates than persons in households at any other income level, while persons in households with incomes of less than $7,500 experienced a higher violent crime rate than other households. **************************Table 3****************************** Table 3. Rates of violent crime and personal theft, by household income, marital status, region, and location of residence of victims, 1998 Victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older Violent crimes Rape/ Assault Per- Characteristic Sexual Aggra- sonal of victim Population All* assault Robbery Total vated Simple theft Household income Less than $7,500 11,724,160 63.8 3.2 6.5 54.2 19.6 34.5 1.7 $7,500 - $14,999 21,132,940 49.3 2.4 5.8 41.0 11.8 29.3 1.8 $15,000 - $24,999 29,783,090 39.4 2.3 3.6 33.5 7.9 25.7 1.3 $25,000 - $34,999 28,314,520 42.0 2.4 6.9 32.8 6.3 26.5 1.1 $35,000 - $49,999 34,039,640 31.7 0.5 3.1 28.1 6.2 21.9 1.6 $50,000 - $74,999 33,179,460 32.0 0.7 2.8 28.5 6.2 22.3 1.1 $75,000 or more 29,414,500 33.1 1.2 2.9 29.0 6.2 22.8 1.0 Marital status Never married 68,860,090 66.6 3.1 8.0 55.5 12.9 42.5 2.0 Married 114,134,930 17.7 0.5 1.3 15.9 3.9 11.9 0.9 Divorced/separated 23,948,180 57.4 2.6 6.8 48.0 12.8 35.2 2.0 Widowed 13,632,600 6.7 0.3 1.2 5.2 1.5 3.7 0.8 Region Northeast 42,008,340 31.3 1.7 3.2 26.2 5.9 20.3 2.0 Midwest 53,236,240 40.2 1.8 3.8 34.5 8.5 26.0 1.0 South 79,513,720 31.0 1.1 3.8 26.2 7.2 19.0 1.2 West 47,122,670 46.7 1.6 5.2 39.9 8.4 31.5 1.3 Residence Urban 62,685,860 46.3 1.7 6.5 38.1 10.9 27.2 2.4 Suburban 102,775,530 35.5 1.4 3.2 30.9 6.9 24.0 1.1 Rural 56,419,570 27.6 1.5 2.6 23.6 4.9 18.7 0.5 *The National Crime Victimization Survey includes as violent crime rape/sexual assault, robbery, and assault, but not murder and manslaughter. ***********************End of table 3************************** ************** Marital status ************** In 1998 those who had never married were the most likely to be violent crime victims. Those who were divorced or separated were more likely to be victimized than married individuals. In turn, married individuals had higher victimization rates than widowed persons. Those who had never married became violent crime victims at 10 times the rate of widowed persons and at over 3 times the rate of married persons. ************** Region ************** Western residents had higher violent victimization rates than people in other regions in 1998 (47 victimizations per 1,000 persons). Violent victimization rates were marginally higher for Midwesterners (40 per 1,000) than for Southern and Northeastern residents (31 per 1,000 for each region). ************** Urbanization ************** Urban residents were victimized by violent crime overall at a higher rate than suburban residents, and suburban residents experienced violent victimization at a higher rate than rural residents in 1998. This pattern also emerged for the rates of aggravated assault and personal theft. Rates of robbery among suburban and rural residents did not differ significantly but were lower than those for urban residents. The urban rate of simple assault was slightly higher than the suburban rate, which was significantly higher than the rural rate. No significant difference between urban, suburban, and rural rates for rape or sexual assault occurred in 1998. **************************** Victim-offender relationship **************************** Over half of violent crime victims knew the offender(s) in 1998 (table 4). Rape or sexual assault victims were most likely to know the offender(s) (74%), and robbery victims least likely to know the offender(s) (41%). Victims identified intimates (current or former spouses, boyfriends, and girlfriends) as offenders in 12% of overall violent crimes, robbery, and simple assault. Ten percent of aggravated assault victims and 18% of rape or sexual assault victims were victimized by an intimate. ************************Table 4************************** Table 4. Victim and offender relationship, 1998 Relationship with victim Violent crime Rape or sexual assault Robbery Aggravated assault Simple assault Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Total 8,116,200 100% 332,500 100% 886,500 100% 1,673,600 100% 5,223,600 100% Non-stranger 4,407,900 54% 244,400 74% 362,200 41% 838,300 50% 2,963,000 57% Intimate 956,200 12 58,900 18 103,900 12 173,600 10 619,800 12 Other relative 487,400 6 25,100 8 73,300 8 110,500 7 278,500 5 Friend/acquaintance 2,964,200 37 160,400 48 184,900 21 554,200 33 2,064,700 40 Stranger 3,604,300 44% 82,900 25% 505,600 57% 808,300 48% 2,207,500 42% Relationship unknown 104,000 1% 5,200 2 18,700 2% 27,000 2% 53,100 1% Note: Percentages may not total to 100% because of rounding. Multiple-offender victimizations are classified by the most intimate relationship between the victim and one of the offenders. Intimates include current or former spouses and girl/boyfriends. ***********************End of table 4******************** ********** Weapon use ********** Offenders were armed with a weapon or an object used as a weapon in about a quarter of 1998 violent victimizations (table 5). Thirty-nine percent of robberies and 9% of rape or sexual assaults were committed by an offender with a weapon. *************************Table 5************************* Table 5. Use of weapons in violent crimes, 1998 Offenser's use of weapon Violent crime Rape or sexual assault Robbery Assault Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Total 8,116,200 100% 332,500 100% 886,500 100% 6,897,200 100% No weapon 5,503,300 68% 290,400 87% 432,700 49% 4,780,200 69% Weapon 1,918,700 24% 29,000 9% 342,700 39% 1,547,000 22% Gun 670,500 8 12,800 4/a 182,200 21 475,400 7 Knife 461,000 6 9,400 3/a 89,900 10 361,700 5 Other 647,300 8 0 0/a 57,700 7 589,600 8 Type not ascertained 140,000 2 6,800 2/a 12,900 1/a 120,300 2 Don't know 694,200 9% 13,200 4/%a 111,100 13% 570,000 8% Note: Percentages may not total to 100% because of rounding. If the offender had more than one weapon, the crime is classified by the most serious weapon present. a/Based on 10 or fewer sample cases. ***********************End of table 5******************** When an offender had a weapon, it was most likely to be a firearm or an object used as a weapon such as a rock, club, or a blackjack. Over a third of all armed assaults were committed by an offender using an object as a weapon, and slightly less than a third by an offender with a firearm. Offenders with a firearm committed 21% of all serious victimizations (rape, sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault). About half of armed robberies (53%) and armed rape or sexual assaults (44%) were committed by an offender using a firearm. ************************************ Property crime victim characteristics, 1998 ************************************ ********************** Race of household head ********************** Black households were property crime victims at a higher rate than white households (248 versus 213 crimes per 1,000 households, see table 6). Households with an Asian or American Indian head (collectively called "other race") experienced 225 property crimes per 1,000 households, not significantly different from black or white households. ***********************Table 6************************* Table 6. Household property crime victimization, by race, Hispanic origin, household income, region, and home ownership of households victimized, 1998 Characteristic Number of Victimizations per 1,000 households of household or households, Motor vehicle head of household 1998 Total Burglary theft Theft Race White 88,616,850 212.6 36.3 9.4 166.9 Black 12,992,210 248.0 54.8 20.1 173.1 Other 3,713,860 224.5 33.2 12.5 178.9 Hispanic origin Hispanic 8,497,710 267.6 44.9 22.0 200.7 Non-Hispanic 96,037,610 212.5 37.7 9.7 165.0 Household income Less than $7,500 7,427,400 209.0 55.4 11.1 142.5 $7,500 - $14,999 11,641,910 229.8 57.8 9.0 162.9 $15,000 - $24,999 14,878,040 211.0 42.6 12.0 156.5 $25,000 - $34,999 13,249,500 233.8 38.2 12.3 183.2 $35,000 - $49,999 14,903,750 221.7 32.7 10.8 178.3 $50,000 - $74,999 13,490,230 248.6 30.1 10.6 208.0 $75,000 or more 11,843,870 248.6 28.0 11.2 209.4 Region Northeast 20,186,010 159.3 26.0 8.4 124.8 Midwest 25,481,910 214.0 39.3 9.9 164.7 South 37,990,330 213.5 41.1 9.9 162.5 West 21,664,680 282.3 44.6 15.6 222.1 Residence Urban 31,153,220 274.2 49.3 17.8 207.0 Suburban 47,853,910 204.5 32.5 10.2 161.8 Rural 26,315,800 173.5 36.6 3.5 133.4 Home ownership Owned 69,145,000 189.6 31.7 8.5 149.3 Rented 36,177,920 270.6 51.5 15.1 204.0 ***********************End of table 6****************** Households headed by blacks sustained burglaries and motor vehicle thefts at higher rates than households headed by whites and persons of other races. Theft rates were comparable among households headed by whites, blacks, and persons of other races in 1998. *************************** Ethnicity of household head *************************** Hispanic households were characterized by significantly greater overall rates of property crime, motor vehicle theft, and theft, and marginally greater rates of burglary than non-Hispanic households in 1998. Hispanic headed households were more than twice as likely to be victims of motor vehicle theft than non-Hispanic headed households (22 versus 10 motor vehicle thefts per 1,000 households). ************************************ Region, urbanization, and home ownership ************************************ Western households had the highest rate of overall property crime, motor vehicle theft, and theft rates of all regions in 1998. Western, Southern and Mid- western households experienced similar burglary rates, and North-eastern households had the lowest burglary rate in the Nation. Urban households were the most vulnerable to overall property crime and burglary in 1998. Suburban households were least likely to experience motor vehicle theft. Households in rented housing were more vulnerable to overall property crime, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and household theft than those that owned their home. **************** Household income **************** In general, the higher the annual household income, the higher the theft rate in 1998. Households with annual incomes greater than $50,000 experienced about 30% more household thefts than those with incomes less than $15,000. Household income was unrelated to motor vehicle theft rates in 1998. Burglary rates increased as annual household income decreased. Households with incomes of less than $15,000 annually had twice the burglary rate of households with annual incomes of greater than $35,000. *********************** Reporting to the police *********************** Victims reported about half of all violent crimes (46%) and about a third (35%) of property crimes to the police in 1998. Among violent crimes, victims reported robberies most often (62%) and rape or sexual assaults least often (32%). Victims notified authorities in approximately a third of personal theft victimizations. Among property crimes, motor vehicle thefts continued to be the property crime most often reported (80%). Percent of crime reported to the police All victimizations 38.0% Violent crime 45.9% Rape/Sexual assault 31.6 Robbery 62.0 Aggravated assault 57.6 Simple assault 40.3 Personal theft 34.0% Household crime 35.3% Burglary 49.4 Motor vehicle theft 79.7 Theft 29.2 Female victims reported a higher percentage of violent crime to the police than did male victims in 1998 (51% versus 42%). Black victims reported violent victimizations in higher percentages than white victims (52% versus 44%). Violent victimization reporting to police was equal for Hispanic and non-Hispanic victims, as well as for urban, suburban, and rural victims. Southern victims reported violent victimizations to the police in somewhat higher percentages than Northeastern victims and in higher percentages than victims in the West. Percent of victimizations Victim reported to the police characteristic Violent Property All 45.9% 35.3% Male 42.3% 33.0% Female 50.7 37.3 White 44.4% 35.2% Black 52.3 37.1 Hispanic 45.7% 31.5% Non-Hispanic 45.7 35.8% Households headed by females reported property crime to police in higher percentages than households headed by males in 1998 (37% versus 33%). Non-Hispanic households reported property crimes to police at a higher rate than did Hispanics (36% versus 32%). Black and white households, and urban, suburban, and rural households reported property crimes to police in similar percentages (not all shown in a table). Southern households reported property victimization to the police in somewhat higher percentages than Northeastern households and in higher percentages than Western households. **********************Box on victimization trends*********************** ******************************* Trends in violent victimization ******************************* Because the National Crime Victimization Survey relies on a sample of households, the rates and numbers from it are estimates and are not exact. The figure shows trends in the violent victimization rate: Each bar shows the range within which the true victimization rate is likely to fall for the indicated year, and the line represents the best estimate, the most likely value for the rate in each year, which is the published number. There is a greater likelihood that the true rate will fall near the best estimate, and the bars reflect that likelihood: The darker the bar segment, the greater the likelihood. Because the estimates are based on samples, their precision depends on the sample size: The larger the sample, the better the estimate and the smaller the range bars. Some year-to-year changes are so large that contiguous bars do not touch (1980-81, 1982-83, 1990-91, 1994-95, and 1995-96), suggesting statistically significant increases and decreases. Where there is a lot of overlap(1973-76 and 1986-90), the year-to-year changes may be too small to be statistically significant. Even though the victimization rates have a range of possible values, general trends are readily apparent. Violent crime rates increased from the early 1970's to the early 1980's, then fell until around 1986. For several years in the late 1980's, violent crime rates were stable, but increased in the early 1990's and fell after 1994 through 1998. For more explanation of this graph, see the BJS Technical Report Displaying Violent Crime Trends Using Estimates from the National Crime Victimization Survey, NCJ 167881. ***************************End box on victimization trends*************** ***************************** Victimization trends, 1993-98 ***************************** Every major type of crime measured -- rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, simple assault, burglary, theft, and motor vehicle theft -- decreased from 1993 to 1998 (table 7). ***********************Table 7************************** Table 7. Rates of criminal victimization and percent change, 1993-98 Victimization rates (per 1,000 persons age 12 or older or per 1,000 households) Percent change Type of crime 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1993-98 1994-98 1995-98 1996-98 1997-98 Personal crimes/a 52.2 54.1 48.5 43.5 40.8 37.9 -27.4%* -29.9%* -21.9%* -12.9%* -7.1%* Crimes of violence 49.9 51.8 46.6 42.0 39.2 36.6 -26.7 * -29.3 * -21.5 * -12.9 * -6.6 + Completed violence 15.0 15.4 13.8 12.4 12.2 11.6 -22.7 * -24.7 * -15.9 * -6.5 -4.9 Attempted/threatened violence 34.9 36.4 32.8 29.6 27.0 25.0 -28.4 * -31.3 * -23.8 * -15.5 * -7.4 + Rape/Sexual assault 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 -40.0 * -28.6 * -11.8 7.1 7.1 Rape/attempted rape 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 -43.8 * -35.7 * -25.0 + 0 0 Rape 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 -50.0 * -28.6 * -28.6 25.0 0 Attempted rape 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 -42.9 * -42.9 * -20.0 -20.0 0 Sexual assault 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 -25.0 0 20.0 20.0 20.0 Robbery 6.0 6.3 5.4 5.2 4.3 4.0 -33.3 * -36.5 * -25.9 * -23.1 * -7.0 Completed/property taken 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.7 -28.9 * -32.5 * -22.9 * -22.9 * -3.6 With injury 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 -38.5 * -42.9 * -20.0 -27.3 + -27.3 + Without injury 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.7 2.0 -20.0 + -23.1 -20.0 + -13.0 17.6 Attempted to take property 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.2 -45.5 * -47.8 * -36.8 * -29.4 * -20.0 With injury 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -25.0 + -50.0 * -25.0 -25.0 0.0 Without injury 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 -50.0 * -47.1 * -43.8 * -35.7 * -25.0 Assault 41.4 43.3 39.5 35.4 33.5 31.1 -24.9 * -28.2 * -21.3 * -12.1 * -7.2 + Aggravated 12.0 11.9 9.5 8.8 8.6 7.5 -37.5 * -37.0 * -21.1 * -14.8 * -12.8 + With injury 3.4 3.3 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.5 -26.5 * -24.2 * 0.0 4.2 -7.4 Threatened with weapon 8.6 8.6 7.1 6.4 5.9 5.1 -40.7 * -40.7 * -28.2 * -20.3 * -13.6 + Simple 29.4 31.5 29.9 26.6 24.9 23.5 -20.1 * -25.4 * -21.4 * -11.7 * -5.6 With minor injury 6.1 6.8 6.6 5.7 5.7 5.3 -13.1 * -22.1 * -19.7 * -7.0 -7.0 Without injury 23.3 24.7 23.3 20.9 19.2 18.2 -21.9 * -26.3 * -21.9 * -12.9 * -5.2 Personal theft/b 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 -43.5 * -45.8 * -31.6 * -13.3 -18.8 Property crimes 318.9 310.2 290.5 266.3 248.3 217.4 -31.8 * -29.9 * -25.2 * -18.4 * -12.4 * Household burglary 58.2 56.3 49.3 47.2 44.6 38.5 -33.8 * -31.6 * -21.9 * -18.4 * -13.7 * Completed 47.2 46.1 41.7 39.5 37.4 32.1 -32.0 * -30.4 * -23.0 * -18.7 * -14.2 * Forcible entry 18.1 16.9 15.5 14.7 14.4 12.4 -31.5 * -26.6 * -20.0 * -15.6 * -13.9 * Unlawful entry without force 29.1 29.2 26.2 24.8 23.0 19.7 -32.3 * -32.5 * -24.8 * -20.6 * -14.3 * Attempted forcible entry 10.9 10.2 7.6 7.7 7.1 6.4 -41.3 * -37.3 * -15.8 + -16.9 * -9.9 Motor vehicle theft 19.0 18.8 16.9 13.5 13.8 10.8 -43.2 * -42.6 * -36.1 * -20.0 * -21.7 * Completed 12.4 12.5 11.5 9.1 9.7 7.8 -37.1 * -37.6 * -32.2 * -14.3 * -19.6 * Attempted 6.6 6.3 5.5 4.4 4.1 3.0 -54.5 * -52.4 * -45.5 * -31.8 * -26.8 * Theft 241.7 235.1 224.3 205.7 189.9 168.1 -30.5 * -28.5 * -25.1 * -18.3 * -11.5 * Completed/c 230.1 224.3 215.3 197.7 182.3 162.1 -29.6 * -27.7 * -24.7 * -18.0 * -11.1 * Less than $50 98.7 93.5 85.2 73.8 69.4 58.6 -40.6 * -37.3 * -31.2 * -20.6 * -15.6 * $50 to $249 76.1 77.0 76.0 71.8 64.2 57.8 -24.0 * -24.9 * -23.9 * -19.5 * -10.0 * $250 or more 41.6 41.8 42.1 41.1 38.0 35.1 -15.6 * -16.0 * -16.6 * -14.6 * -7.6 + Attempted 11.6 10.8 9.0 8.0 7.6 6.0 -48.3 * -44.4 * -33.3 * -25.0 * -21.1 * Note: Victimization rates may differ from those reported previously because the estimates are now based on data collected in each calendar year. See Survey methodology on page 12.) Completed violent crimes include rape, sexual assault, robbery with or without injury, aggravated assault with injury, and simple assault with minor injury. In 1993 the total population age 12 or older was 211,524,770; in 1994, 213,135,890; in 1995, 215,080,690; in 1996, 217,234,280; in 1997, 219,839,110; in 1998, 221,880,960. The total number of households in 1993 was 99,927,410; in 1994, 100,568,060; in 1995, 101,504,820; in 1996, 102,697,490; in 1997, 103,988,670; and in 1998, 105,322,920. *The difference between the indicated years is significant at the 95% confidence level. +The difference between the indicated years is significant at the 90% confidence level. a/The NCVS is based on interviews with victims and therefore cannot measure murder. b/Includes pocket picking, purse snatching, and attempted purse snatching not shown separately. c/Includes thefts with unknown losses. ***********************End of table 7****************** **************************** Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter **************************** According to preliminary UCR data, the rate and overall number of murders in the United States in 1998 appear to be continuing the steady decline that began in 1993. ************************* Box on murder *************** ************************************ Murder in the United States, 1998 ************************************ Statistics on murder are compiled from over 16,000 city, county, and State law enforcement agencies as part of the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports. In 1997 the UCR program stated that 18,210 murders occurred in the United States. Preliminary 1998 UCR data suggest about an 8% drop in the number of murders and a 9% drop in the murder rate from 1997. The FBI defines murder in its annual Crime in the United States as the willful (nonnegligent) killing of one human being by another. The incidence of murder varies across victim characteristics. While the number of homicides has decreased since 1993, the pattern of characteristics of homicide victims has remained relatively unchanged year after year. * In general, three-fourths of murder victims are male. * Whites and blacks each make up about half of murder victims. * Approximately 1 in 8 murder victims are under age 18 * Firearms are used in about 70% of murders. * The homicide rate tends to be highest in the South and lowest in the Northeast. * The homicide rate tends to be higher in metropolitan cities than in smaller cities and rural areas. For more information about U.S. murder trends: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/homtrnd.htm ***************** End of box on murder **************** ************* Violent crime ************* Between 1993 and 1998 the overall violent crime rate fell 27% from 52 to 38 incidents per 1,000 persons. Over the same period the rate of robbery declined 33%; aggravated assault 38%; simple assault 20%; and rape or sexual assault rates 40%. ************** Personal theft ************** Personal theft rates decreased 44% between 1993 and 1998. The 1998 rate of 1.3 personal thefts per 1,000 persons was about half of the 2.3 personal thefts per 1,000 persons recorded in 1993. ************** Property crime ************** The rate of every type of property crime decreased between 1993 and 1998. Household burglary decreased 34%; motor vehicle theft decreased 43%; and theft decreased 31%. ************************** Characteristics of victims ************************** Of the demographic categories considered, virtually all experienced a decrease in violent victimization between 1993 and 1998. For example, male violent victimization rates fell 39%, and black violent victimization rates fell 38%. Decreases in property crime rates occurred between 1993 and 1998 in every demographic group considered (tables 8 and 9). The overall property crime rate declined at least 31% for white, black, urban, and suburban households. **********************Table 8************************** Table 8. Property victimization rates of selected household categories, 1993 and 1998 Number of property crimes per 1,000 households 1993 1998 Property crime White 309.7 212.6 * Black 376.6 248.0 * Other 349.6 224.5 * Hispanic 429.7 267.6 * Non-Hispanic 311.0 212.5 * Urban 404.8 274.2 * Suburban 305.1 204.5 * Rural 246.4 173.5 * Northeast 235.6 159.3 * Midwest 311.2 214.0 * South 299.4 213.5 * West 434.5 282.3 * Burglary Hispanic 78.9 44.9 * Non-Hispanic 56.7 37.7 * Urban 83.5 49.3 * Suburban 45.5 32.5 * Rural 50.9 36.6 * Northwest 39.1 26.0 * Midwest 63.4 39.3 * South 58.0 41.1 * West 69.6 44.6 * Theft White 239.4 166.9 * Black 253.5 173.1 * Other 260.8 178.9 * Hispanic 317.5 200.7 * Non-Hispanic 236.2 165.0 * Urban 290.5 207.0 * Suburban 241.1 161.8 * Rural 188.7 133.4 * Northwest 178.5 124.8 * Midwest 233.1 164.7 * South 225.2 162.5 * West 335.4 222.1 * Note: The 1993 estimates, based on the collection year, differ from estimates for 1993 published in Changes in Criminal Victimization, 1994-95 (NCJ 162032), table J, based on the data year. See Methodology. *1993-98 difference is significant at 95% confidence level. ***********************End of table 8****************** ***********************Table 9************************* Table 9. Violent and property victimization rates, by annual household income, 1993-98 Number of victimizations per 1,000 persons Annual household age 12 or older or per 1,000 households income 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Violent victimizations Less than $7,500 84.7 86.0 77.8 65.3 71.0 63.8 * $7,500-$14,999 56.4 60.7 49.8 52.1 51.2 49.3 $15,000-$24,999 49.0 50.7 48.9 44.1 40.1 39.4 * $25,000-$34,999 51.0 47.3 47.1 43.0 40.2 42.0 + $35,000-$49,999 45.6 47.0 45.8 43.0 38.7 31.7 * $50,000-$74,999 44.0 48.0 44.6 37.5 33.9 32.0 * $75,000 or more 41.3 39.5 37.3 30.5 30.7 33.1 Property victimizations Less than $7,500 305.9 299.6 304.3 282.7 258.8 209.0 * $7,500-$14,999 285.9 299.1 267.1 247.5 236.3 229.8 * $15,000-$24,999 307.0 308.1 289.8 273.1 242.4 211.0 * $25,000-$34,999 336.7 305.2 294.8 285.1 260.3 233.8 * $35,000-$49,999 342.7 326.9 301.5 287.6 271.7 221.7 * $50,000-$74,999 374.4 364.1 333.2 284.0 270.9 248.6 * $75,000 or more 400.3 356.0 350.4 304.6 292.8 248.6 * *1993-98 difference is significant at the 95% confidence level. +1993-98 difference is significant at the 90% confidence level. ***********************End of table 9****************** ****************** Survey methodology ****************** Except for homicide data obtained from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting program, this Bulletin presents data from the NCVS. The NCVS collects data on nonfatal crimes against persons age 12 or older, reported and not reported to the police, from a nationally representative sample of households in the United States. The NCVS provides information about victims (age, gender, race, ethnicity, marital status, income, and educational level), offenders (gender, race, approximate age, and victim-offender relations), and criminal offenses (time and place of occurrence, use of weapons, nature of injury, and economic consequences). In 1998 approximately 43,000 households and 80,000 people age 12 or older were interviewed. For the 1998 NCVS data presented here, the response rate is 94% of eligible households and 89% of eligible individuals. The data in this Bulletin were collected during the calendar year being estimated. Because of the retrospective nature of the survey, the estimates include some incidents that actually occurred during the previous year. Analyses comparing the victimization information collected in a calendar year (termed a collection year) to that obtained about victimizations experienced in the same calendar year (called a data year) show only a small difference between the two methods. For example, for 1995 the violent crime rate based on data year victimization was 44.5 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, compared to 46.6 based on the collection year method. The differences will be greater during periods of changing crime rates and less during periods of stable rates. *************************** Standard error computations *************************** Comparisons made in this Bulletin were tested to determine if observed differences were statistically significant. Differences described as higher, lower, or different in this Bulletin passed a hypothesis test at the .05 level of statistical significance (95% confidence level). That is, the tested difference was greater than twice the standard error of that difference. For comparisons which were statistically significant at the 0.10 level of statistical significance (90% confidence level), the terms somewhat different, marginally different, and slight difference are used to note the nature of the difference. Caution is required when comparing estimates not explicitly discussed in the bulletin text. What may appear to be large differences may not test as statistically at the 95% or even the 90% confidence level. Significance testing calculations were conducted at the Bureau of Justice Statistics using statistical programs developed specifically for the NCVS by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. These programs consider the complex NCVS sample design when calculating generalized variance estimates. ***********************Box************************** The Bureau of Justice Statistics is the statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Justice. Jan M. Chaiken, Ph.D., is director. This report continues the BJS Bulletin series of Criminal Victimization. BJS Bulletins present the first release of findings from permanent data collection programs such as the National Crime Victimization Survey. Callie M. Rennison, BJS Statistician, wrote this report. Marianne Zawitz, BJS Statistician, and Michael Maltz, BJS Fellow, produced figures 1 and 2. Cathy Maston and Matthew Durose provided statistical review. Tom Hester and Yvonne Boston produced and edited the report. Ms. Boston and Jayne Robinson administered final production. July 1999, NCJ 176353 ***********************End of box********************* ***************Box********************************* This report and additional data, analyses, and graphs about criminal victimization in the United States are available on the Internet at http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/ Data presented in this report can be obtained from the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data at the University of Michigan, 1-800-999-0960. The archive can also be accessed through the BJS Web site. When at the archive site, search for dataset ICPSR 6406. END OF CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION 1998 Bureau of Justice Statistics th, rck 7/16/99 revised 8/25/99 BOX**********