U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey Criminal Victimization 2001 Changes 2000-2001 with Trends 1993-2001 September 2001, NCJ 194610 (Revised 09/18/02) --------------------------------------------------------------- This file is text only without graphics and many of the tables. A Zip archive of the tables in this report in spreadsheet format (.wk1) and the full report including tables and graphics in .pdf format are available from: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/cv01.htm This report is one is a series. More recent editions may be available. To view a list of all in the series go to http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjspubalp2.htm#Criminal Victimization ---------------------------------------------------------------- By Callie Rennison, Ph.D. BJS Statistician ---------------------------------------------- Highlights Among 5.7 million violent victimizations in 2001 -- most male victims faced strangers, while most female victims faced someone they knew. The crimes against females were more likely to be reported to the police. * The violent crime rate fell 10%, 2000-2001, due primarily to a significant decrease in the rate of simple assault, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). * The overall property crime rate fell 6% between 2000 and 2001 because of decreases in theft and household burglary rates. * Violent victimization and property crime rates in 2001 are the lowest recorded since the NCVS' inception in 1973. ***Footnote 1: Based on adjustments to pre-1992 estimates to account for the 1992 redesign of the NCVS.*** * For the first year since the redesign of the NCVS in 1992, in 2001 males and females were victims of simple assault at similar rates. * Per 1,000 persons in 2001, the never married and the divorced/separated were victimized by violent crime at rates (45 and 42)about 4 times those of married and widowed persons (11 and 8). * About half of violent victimizations and 37% of property crimes were reported to the police in 2001. * Most violent crime victims did not face an armed offender (66%). Victims of rape/ sexual assault (7%)were the least likely, while robbery victims (55%) were the most likely to face an armed offender. * Violent crimes were less likely to involve firearms in 2001 than in the period 1993-96. ---------------------------------------------- Americans age 12 or older experienced approximately 24.2 million violent and property victimizations in 2001 according to the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Overall criminal victimizations included about 18.3 million property crimes (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft), 5.7 million violent crimes (rape, sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault), and about 188,000 personal thefts (pocket picking and purse snatching). The 24.2 million criminal victimizations in 2001 represent a decrease from 25.9 million victimizations in 2000, and furthered a downward trend that began in 1994. Criminal victimization estimates in 2001 are the lowest recorded since the 1973 estimate of 44 million victimizations when the NCVS was initiated. The violent crime rate fell 10% from 28 to 25 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons; the personal theft rate fell 33%; and the property crime rate fell 6%, from 178 to 167 victimizations per 1,000 households, 2000-2001. Between 1993 and 2001 the violent crime rate decreased 50%, from 50 to 25 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, the personal theft rate fell 65%, and the property crime rate declined 48%. --------------------------------------------- Victimization trends, 1973-2001 The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is a victimization survey conducted from a large representative sample of U.S. households. First fielded in 1973 and redesigned most recently in 1992, the survey can now trace a three-decade trend in criminal victimization in the United States.***Footnote 2: For more information about the redesign, see The Effects of the Redesign on Victimization Estimates (NCJ 164381), National Crime Victimization Survey (NCJ 151169), National Crime Victimization Survey Redesign: Fact sheet (NCJ 151170), Technical Background (NCJ 151172), and the Questions & Answers (NCJ 151171).*** Record lows The rates per 1,000 persons or households in 2001 for overall violent crime (25), simple assault (16), overall property crime (167), burglary (29), and theft (129) were the lowest ever recorded by the NCVS. Other crime rates registered at their lowest point but were similar to 2000 rates. These crimes included -- * 1 rape/sexual assault, 3 robberies, and 5 aggravated assaults per 1,000 persons. * 9 motor vehicle thefts per 1,000 households. Violent crime The violent crime victimization rate fluctuated between 1973 and 1994 and has since steadily declined. The 10% decline for 2000-2001 equaled declines for 1994-1995 and 1995-1996, but was smaller than the 15% decrease for 1999-2000. The robbery rate has moved in concert with the overall violent crime rate. Initially, through 1978, the robbery rate fell, then reversed course and increased until 1981. After a decline ending in 1985, the robbery rate rose slowly until 1994 when it decreased until 1997. Since 1997 the rate has not changed significantly from one year to the next. The rate of aggravated assault declined with some interruptions from 1974 to the mid-1980's. Following several years of minimal changes, the aggravated assault rate increased 1990- 1993. Between 1994 and 2000 the aggravated assault rate fell steadily. Between 2000 and 2001 the rate of aggravated assault did not change. Simple assault, the most common form of violent crime measured by the NCVS, increased 1974-1977 then remained stable until 1979. The rate then declined until 1989, when it increased through 1994. After 1994 the rate fell steadily to its current lowest recorded level of 16 simple assaults per 1,000 persons. Property crime Aside from an increase between 1973 and 1974, property crime rates have fallen through the duration of the NCVS. The burglary rate, after a period of slow decline interrupted by an increase from 1980 to 1981, fell each year thereafter. The 2001 burglary rate was about a third of the 1973 adjusted rate. The motor vehicle theft rate, despite some periods of increase, primarily declined, 1973- 2000. From 2000 to 2001 the rate was stable. The 2001 rate of 9 motor vehicle thefts per 1,000 households was about half the 1973 rate of 19 per 1,000 households. The theft rate increased between 1973 and 1974, then stabilized until 1977. After 1978 theft rates declined steadily, reaching the current lowest recorded rate of 129 thefts per 1,000 households in 2001. ---------------------------------------------- Criminal victimization, 2000 to 2001 Violent crime The NCVS collects data on nonfatal crimes against persons age 12 or older, reported and not reported to the police, from a nationally representative sample of U.S. households in the United States. Information on homicide comes from the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program of the FBI. Violent crimes measured by the NCVS Overall violent victimization refers to rape, sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault taken as a whole. The overall violent victimization rate declined 10% from 28 to 25 victimizations per 1,000 persons, 2000-2001. Of the major violent crimes covered by the NCVS, simple assault was the sole crime that decreased, 2000-2001 (18 to 16 simple assaults per 1,000 persons). Apparent decreases in rates for rape/sexual assault, robbery and aggravated assault were not significant. The rates at which males, whites, and non- Hispanics were victimized by violent crimes declined, 2000-2001. Males experienced a 17% drop; whites a 10% drop; and non-Hispanics a 12% drop in violence, 2000-2001. Statistically significant changes in rates of violent victimization did not occur for females, Hispanics, blacks, and persons of "other" races (Asians, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, Alaska Natives, and American Indians considered together). The rate at which never married persons were victims of violent crime fell 13% from 51 to 45 victimizations per 1,000, 2000-2001. Apparent declines in the rate of violent victimization experienced by married, widowed and divorced/ separated persons were not significant. Many apparent changes in the rate of violent victimization experienced by persons in different age categories were not significant, 2000-2001. Moreover, persons in age categories historically associated with high rates of violence -- ages 16-19 and 20-24 had no measurable declines in rates from 2000 to 2001. Persons age 25 to 34 experienced violence at slightly decreased rates (35 to 29 per 1,000), while those age 50 to 64 experienced violence at a rate that was 31% lower in 2001 than in 2000. --------------------------------------------- Change in violent victimization, by category, 2000-2001 The figure shows the estimated annual percentage change in victimization rates from 2000 to 2001 for the categories that comprise violent crime: homicide, rape and sexual assault, aggravated assault, simple assault, and robbery. The crime categories are displayed vertically according to their 2001 rates per 1,000 population age 12 or older. Total violent (the sum of all types) is first with the highest rate, and murder is last with the lowest rate. Because the National Crime Victimization Survey relies on a sample of households, the rates and numbers from it are estimates and are not exact. Each horizontal bar shows the range within which the true percent change in rates from year to year is likely to fall. If a bar is clear of the "No change" line, one may be reasonably certain a change occurred. If a bar crosses the "No change" line, there is a possibility that there was no change. The degree of certainty depends on where the bar crosses the line. A line shadows the bottom and a side of those bars representing crime categories in which a statistically significant year-to-year change occurred. Bar lengths vary from crime to crime, dependent upon a variety of factors such as sample size and rarity of the event. Because homicide rates are derived from nonsample data, the preliminary value for the 1999-2000 homicide rate change is given as a point estimate and not as a range of estimates. Murder rates have no variance associated with their point estimates, though some discrepancies exist between UCR rates and Vital Statistics of the National Center for Health Statistics. -------------------------------------------- Persons in households with incomes of less than $7,500 a year experienced a 23% decline in the rate of violence, 2000-2001. Apparent decreases in the rate of violence experienced by residents of the South, Northeast, and the West -- historically associated with the highest rate of nonfatal violence -- were not significant, 2000-2001. A decline in the rate of violence occurred for Midwesterners, as the rate fell 20% from 30 to 24 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons during this time. Suburbanites experienced violent victimization at a rate lower in 2001 than in 2000. Between 2000 and 2001, the rate of violence experienced by suburbanites fell 14% from 26 to 22 victimizations per 1,000 persons. No measurable change emerged in the rate of violence experienced by residents in urban and rural areas, 2000-2001. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter measured by the UCR The murder and nonnegligent man-slaughter rate fell 3.1% between 1999 and 2000 from a rate of 5.7 to 5.5 murders per 100,000.***Footnote 2: The FBI reported in its preliminary release of crime data an increase of 3.1% in murder during 2001. Based on the 2000 level of 15,517 murders, the percentage represents 481 additional murders in 2001. The estimated murder rate in 2001 of 7.2 per 100,000 would be higher than the rates for 1999 and 2000, the lowest levels since the mid- 1960's. See .*** The numbers of murders and nonnegligent homicides estimated in 2000 and 1999 were almost identical -- 15,517 and 15,522, respectively. For the South there was a rate of 6.8 victims per 100,000 inhabitants. The West and the Midwest had a murder rate of 5.1 per 100,000. The Northeast experienced murder at the lowest rate of all regions -- 4 per 100,000 persons. Murder rates declined in all regions between 1999 and 2000. The largest decline occurred in the West (6.5% less), while the smallest took place in the South (1.5% less). Cities experienced an increase of 0.7% in murder between 1999 and 2000. Cities with less than 10,000 persons experienced the greatest increase in murder (11.7%), while cities with a population of 250,000 or more experienced a decline in the murder rate of 0.3%. ---------------------------------------------- Murder in the United States, 2000 In 2000, the year in which the most recent data are available, the FBI reported a total of 15,517 murders or nonnegligent homicides. The total represents a .03% decrease from the 15,522 murders recorded in 1999. The FBI defines murder in its annual Crime in the United States as the willful, nonnegligent killing of one human being by another. The FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program gathers statistics on murder from over 16,000 city, county, and State law enforcement agencies. Murder rates differ based on victim characteristics, but the relationship between victim characteristics and incidence of homicide tends to remain the same. In 2000: * Males accounted for 76% of all murder victims. * When the race of the victim was known, white persons accounted for 6,263 and black persons accounted for 6,193 of all homicide victims. * 44% of murder victims knew the offender; 13% of victims were murdered by a stranger; and victim-offender relationship was unknown for 43%. * Firearms were used in 66% of murders committed in 2000. * Males (89%) and females (91%) were most often murdered by males. * Arguments were the circumstance leading to murder for 29% of murders. ---------------------------------------------- Property crime The NCVS includes as property crimes burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft considered together. Between 2000 and 2001 the overall property crime rate fell 6% from 178 to 167 crimes per 1,000 households. The decline in overall property crime rates is explained by significant decreases in household burglary and theft between 2000 and 2001. The decrease in the household burglary rate was driven by slight declines in the rate of completed household burglary, attempted forcible entry and a significant decrease in the rate of unlawful entry without force. The drop in the theft rate resulted from decreases in completed thefts of between $50 and $249 and attempted theft, 2000-2001. Property crime rates decreased between 2000 and 2001 for black and non-Hispanic households. The rate for white households was only slightly lower in 2001. No measurable change occurred for households of persons of "other" races or of Hispanics, 2000-2001.***Footnote 3: In this report, "other" are defined as Asians, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, Alaska Natives, and American Indians considered together.*** Households with an annual income of less than $7,500 and those with incomes between $25,000 and $34,999 experienced property crimes at lower rates in 2001 than they did in 2000. Persons in households with incomes of $75,000 or more annually were victims of property crimes at rates slightly lower in 2001 than in 2000. Apparent decreases in the property crime rates of households in the Midwest and the West were not significant, 2000-2001. Households in the Northeast were property crime victims at a rate 14% lower in 2001 compared to 2000 and Southern households were victims of property crime at slightly lower rates in 2001 than in 2000 (a 6% decrease). Rural households were property crime victims at rates 14% lower in 2001 than in 2000. Similarly households in rented residences were victims of property crime at rates 8% lower in 2001 than in 2000. Characteristics of violent crime victims, 2001 Teens and blacks -- the persons often the most vulnerable to violent victimization in the past -- continued to be more vulnerable than others to violent victimization in 2001. Gender of victim Males were victims of overall violent crime, robbery, total assault, and aggravated assault at rates higher than females, and females were victims of rape or sexual assault at rates greater than males during 2001. For the first year since the redesign of the NCVS in 1992, in 2001 males and females were victims of simple assault at similar rates. In all previous years, males were victims of simple assault at higher rates than females. Age of victim In general the younger the person, the higher rate of violent victimization. In 2001 persons age 12 to 15 and age 16 to 19 experienced overall violence at similar rates, which were higher than rates of persons in older categories. Beginning with the 20-24 age category, the rate at which persons were victims of overall violent crime declined significantly as the age category increased. Race of victim Blacks were victims of overall violence, total assault, and aggravated assault at rates higher than whites or "others." Also in 2001 blacks were victims of simple assault at rates similar to the rates of whites and higher than the rates of "others." Rates of rape/sexual assault and robbery were similar for whites, blacks, and persons of "other races" in 2001. Hispanic origin of victim During 2001 compared to non- Hispanics, Hispanics were victims of overall violence at somewhat higher rates and robbery at significantly higher rates. No measurable difference in the rates of other violence crime categories emerged. Household income Few differences were found between household income levels as to whether persons were more or less vulnerable to violent crimes in 2001. Persons in households with an annual income under $25,000 were robbed at a significantly higher rate than persons in households earning more. Persons whose household had an annual income of under $50,000 were significantly more likely than persons in higher income households to experience assault overall. Marital status For all categories of violent crime considered in 2001, persons who had never married and those who were divorced or separated were victimized at similar rates. In addition, never married, and divorced/ separated persons were victimized at rates higher than married and widowed persons, across all types of crime. Married and widowed persons were victims of rape/sexual assault and robbery at similar rates. Widowed persons were victims of overall violent crime, total, aggravated and simple assault at the lowest rate of all groups considered. Region Western residents were victimized by violent crime overall, total assault, and simple assault at the highest rates in 2001. Northeastern residents were victims of overall violence at rates significantly or somewhat lower than in all other regions. Midwestern and Southern residents were victimized at similar rates for all violent crimes except robbery. Midwesterners were robbed at rates somewhat lower than Southerners during 2001. No other differences in rates of robbery emerged among the other regions. Residence Whatever the type of crime considered, urban residents experienced violence at rates higher than suburban and rural residents in 2001. Urbanites were violent crime victims at rates about 50% greater than rates for suburban residents, and 60% greater than rates for rural residents during 2001. For every crime except robbery suburban and rural residents were victimized at similar rates. Suburban residents were robbed at a rate about 60% greater than the rate for rural residents. Characteristics of the crime event Victim-offender relationship Females identified friends or acquaintances as the offender(s) in a substantial portion of the violence that they experienced. Thirty- seven percent of overall violent crime and 46% of rapes/sexual assaults were committed by a person the female victim called a friend or acquaintance. Thirty-six percent of female victims of aggravated assault said the offender(s) was a friend or acquaintance. About a third of all female victims of violent crime, and rape/sexual assault stated the offender(s) was a stranger. Among female robbery victims, 51% identified the offender as a stranger. As has been the case historically, a higher percentage of males than females were victimized by strangers. Fifty-five percent of male victims of violence stated that the offender was a stranger. Similarly 56% of male victims of aggravated assault and 78% of male robbery victims identified the offender as a stranger. Male victims knew the perpetrator in about 4 in 10 violent crimes during 2001. Of violent crimes sustained by males, a friend or acquaintance committed 37% of overall violent crime, 33% of aggravated assaults, and 42% of simple assaults. Presence of weapons Except for robbery most victims of violent crimes did not face an armed offender. In 2001, 66% of violent crime victims were victimized by unarmed offender(s). Rape and sexual assault victims (7%) were the least likely and robbery victims (55%), the most likely, to face an armed offender. Overall, 9% of the victims of violence were confronted by an offender with a firearm, 7% faced an offender armed with a knife, and 11% stated the offender was armed with a weapon other than a firearm or knife. The type of weapon varied by the type of violence. For example, 2% of victims of rape or sexual assault faced an offender armed with a firearm, compared to 31% of robbery victims and 26% of assault victims. Similarly, 4% of rape/sexual assault victims were confronted by an offender brandishing a knife, compared to 14% of robbery victims and 6% of assault victims. The percentage of violent crimes with a weapon present declined between 1993 and 2001. A weapon was present during 30% of all violent crimes in 1993, compared to 26% in 2001. A smaller percentage of violent crimes were committed with a firearm in 2001 compared to 1993, 1994, 1995, and 1996. Each year from 1993 to 1996, between 11% and 12% of all violent crimes were committed with a firearm present. In 2001, 9% of all violent crimes were committed with a firearm present. Characteristics of victims of property crime, 2001 Race of head of household Blacks were victims of burglary and motor vehicle theft at rates higher than those of whites and "others" during 2001. During the same year whites and "others" were victims of all types of property crimes at similar rates. Blacks, whites, and "others" were property theft victims at similar rates during 2001. Hispanic origin of head of household Hispanics experienced overall property crime, motor vehicle theft, and theft at rates greater than those of non- Hispanics, 2001. The burglary rates for the two groups were similar. Annual household income No relationship between annual household income and the rate of total property crime emerged in 2001. Similarly, no difference in rates of motor vehicle theft were noted among adjacent income categories. Comparing burglary rates between adjacent income categories shows that households earning $7,499 or less annually were burglarized at a rate greater than that for households with incomes between $7,500 and $14,999. Households with annual incomes of $25,000 to $34,999 were burglarized at a rate higher than that for households with incomes between $35,000 and $49,999. With one exception no differences in theft rates between income categories emerged. Households with incomes of $35,000 to $49,999 annually were theft victims at a rate slightly higher than that for households with incomes of $25,000 to $34,999. Region, locality, and home ownership Western households sustained the highest rate of overall property crime during 2001. Midwestern households experienced the second highest rate of property crime during this time. Northeastern households were victims of overall property crime at the lowest rate, and Southern households the second lowest rate of overall property crime during 2001. Northeastern households were burglarized at rates lower than those for all other regions, while Southern, Western and Midwestern households were burglarized at similar rates. Households in the West experienced motor vehicle theft at rates higher than those for households in all other regions. Urban households were the most vulnerable to all types of property crime during 2001. Suburban households experienced all forms of property crime except burglary at rates higher than those for rural households. No measurable difference in suburban and rural rates of burglary emerged during 2001. Property crime occurred at higher rates among households renting than among households owning the residence. Reporting to the police Forty-nine percent of all violent victimizations and 37% of all property crimes were reported to the police during 2001. Of the violent crimes in 2001, 39% of rape/sexual assault, 61% of robbery, 59% of aggravated assault and 45% of simple assault were brought to the attention of the police. Motor vehicle theft continued to be the property crime reported to the police at the highest percentage (82%). Fifty-four percent of burglaries and 30% of theft were reported to the police, 2001. Reporting crime to the police, 2000-2001 The percentage of victimizations reported to police in 2001 remained statistically similar to 2000 levels regardless of the crime considered. Reporting and victim characteristics Violent victimization of females was reported to police in higher percentages than the victimization of males during 2000 (53% and 46% respectively). The gender difference in reporting of violence to police existed to varying degrees depending on the race of the victim. A higher percentage of violence against white females compared to white males was brought to the attention of the police. Apparent differences in reporting to police between males and females in other categories of race were not statistically significant. Considering only males, the percentage of violent victimizations reported to the police did not differ significantly across racial categories or by Hispanic origin. With one exception among females, concerning violent crimes reported to the police, there were no differences in the percentages across racial categories or by Hispanic origin. Violent crimes against black females were reported to the police in percentages slightly greater than those against "other" females. Victimization trends, 1993-2001 Trends in this section use 1993 as the beginning point because it was the first full year of NCVS data collected after the redesign was applied. The rate of every major violent and property crime measured in the NCVS -- rape/ sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, simple assault, burglary theft, and motor vehicle theft -- fell significantly between 1993 and 2001. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter Based on FBI data for 2000 (the most recent year available), the rate and overall number of murders in the United States continued a steady decline that began in 1993. According to estimates, 15,517 murders occurred in 2000, compared to 24,350 recorded in 1993. While homicide numbers and rates change, victim characteristics remain unchanged. For example, whites and blacks each continue to comprise about half of murder victims. (See box and footnote on page 5 for additional information on murder and on the preliminary UCR estimates for 2001.) Violent crime The overall violent crime rate fell 50% from 50 to 25 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older between 1993 and 2001. Other significant declines occurred in rates of rape/sexual assault (down 56%), robbery (down 53%), aggravated assault (down 56%), and simple assault (down 46%). Rates for completed/attempted rape and attempted robbery without injury were among those showing the greatest decline between 1993 and 2001. Personal theft Rates of personal theft (purse snatching and pocket picking) decreased 65% from 2.3 personal thefts in 1993 to 0.8 per 1,000 persons in 2001. Property crime From 1993 through 2001, the rate of overall property crime fell, as did the rate for each major type of property crime examined. Rates of household burglary fell 51%; motor vehicle theft fell 52%; and theft fell 47%. Of the categories of property crime considered, attempted burglary by forcible entry and attempted theft rates were among those showing the greatest decline, 1993-2001. ----------------------------------------- Trends in violent victimization Because the National Crime Victimization Survey relies on a sample of households, the rates and numbers from it are estimates and are not exact. The figure shows the violent victimization rate trend line, 1973-2001: Each vertical bar shows the range within which the true victimization rate is likely to fall for the indicated year. The white trend line represents the best estimate -- the most likely value for the rate in each year -- which is the published estimates. There is a greater likelihood that the true rate will fall near the best estimate, and the bars reflect that likelihood: The darker the bar segment, the greater the likelihood. The precision of estimates derived from samples is related to the sample size. In general, the larger the sample, the more precise the estimate and smaller the range bars. Some year-to-year changes are so large that contiguous bars do not touch (1980-81, 1982-83, 1990-91, 1994-95, 1995-96, 1999-00, and 2000-01), suggesting a change in the year-to-year victimization rate a statistically significant difference. Overlap in the bars from 1986 to 1990 suggests, but does not guarantee, that the year-to-year differences in victimization estimates are too small to conclude that a change in the victimization rate occurred. There may be significant year-to-year changes even when the bars overlap slightly, as in 2000-01, because of the strong correlation between crime rates in successive years. Even with the range of possible victimization rates, general trends are apparent. Violent crime rates in-creased from the early 1970's to the early 1980's, then fell until the mid-1980's. For several years in the late 1980's, violent crime rates were stable, but increased in the early 1990's and fell 1994-2001. For more information about this graph, see the BJS Technical Report Displaying Violent Crime Trends Using Estimates from the National Crime Victimization Survey, March 1998, NCJ 167881. ---------------------------------------------- Characteristics of victims With few exceptions, persons in most demographic categories -- gender, race, Hispanic origin, and household income -- experienced significant decreases in violent victimization, 1993-2001. The rate of violent victimization for each group fell significantly, 1993-2001, with two exceptions: rates of violence against persons of “other races” demonstrated no measurable change and against Hispanics, only a slight change. Among groups examined the largest decline in the rate of violent crime occurred among black persons and individuals in households with annual incomes of less than $7,500. Males experienced 4.7 fewer violent crimes (per 1,000 males) on average each year, 1993-2001. Persons in households with incomes of less than $7,500 annually experienced an average of 4.9 fewer violent crimes (per 1,000 persons) each year, 1993-2001. Between 1993 and 2001 the rate at which all property crimes were committed in the United States fell for every group considered. The greatest decline in the property crime rate occurred for Hispanic households, which experienced an average of 28.7 fewer property crimes (per 1,000 Hispanic households) each year, 1993-2001. Survey methodology This Bulletin presents data on non-lethal violence and property crimes from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), and data on homicide from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting program. The NCVS collects data on nonfatal crimes against persons age 12 or older, reported and not reported to the police, from a nationally representative sample of households in the United States. The NCVS provides information about victims (age, gender, race, ethnicity, marital status, income and educational level), offenders (gender, race, approximate age, and victim-offender relations), and criminal offenses (time and place of occurrence, use of weapons, nature of injury, and economic consequences). In 2001, 43,680 households and 79,950 people age 12 or older were interviewed. For the 2000 NCVS data presented here, the response rate was 93.0% of eligible households and 89.3% of eligible individuals. Estimates were calculated from data collected during the calendar year being estimated. That is, the data include victimizations that were identified in interviews conducted in 2001. Because of the retrospective nature of the survey, the estimates include some incidents that actually occurred during the previous year. Analyses comparing the victimization data collected in a calendar year to data occurring in a calendar year the victimization occurred (a data year) show small differences in estimates. For example, the 1995 violent crime rate was 44.5 (per 1,000) using data year data, compared to 46.6 using calendar year data. Differences in estimates obtained from data year and calendar year methods are greater during periods of changing rates and less during periods of stable rates. Standard error computations Comparisons of estimates discussed were tested to determine if the differences were statistically significant. Differences described as higher, lower, or different passed a hypothesis test at the .05 level of statistical significance (95%- confidence level). That is, the tested difference was greater than twice the standard error of that difference. For comparisons of estimates which were statistically significant at the 0.10 level (90%-confidence level), differences are described as somewhat, marginal, or slight. Caution is required when making comparisons of estimates not explicitly discussed in the Bulletin. What may appear to be a large difference in estimates may not test as statistically significant at the 95%-or even the 90%-confidence level. Significance testing calculations were conducted at BJS using statistical programs developed specifically for the NCVS by the U.S. Census Bureau. These programs consider the complex NCVS sample design when calculating generalized variance estimates. Testing trends and annual differences in violent and property victimization When a statement is made describing differences in estimates between two years, it was tested for significance using a computer program designed specifically for the NCVS. These tests determine whether an estimate in one year differs from that of another, regardless of intervening estimate variation. For instance, the percent changes in victimization rates in table 8 were based on such a test. When a statement is made describing the increase or decrease of a linear trend, it was tested using a linear trend test. This test compares the slope of the trend to a horizontal line (a slope of zero). The purpose of this test is to ascertain whether the slope generated from a change in estimates differs from a flat trend -- taking into account estimate variation in intervening years. The linear trend test is a regression equation using time as the independent variable, and the estimate of victimization as the dependent variable. A regression coefficient (b) and its corresponding standard error (sigma) are computed. Next a t-statistic -- the ratio b/sigma -- is calculated. If the t-statistic is greater than 1.96 for a two-tailed test, the slope is different from zero, and if the t-statistic is greater than 1.645 for a two-tailed test, the slope is slightly different from zero. If the t-statistic is less than the critical value, the trend of the estimates does not differ significantly from a flat line. Linear trend tests were applied in Characteristics of victims on page 13 and Reporting to the police on page 10. In NCVS publications prior to 1999, linear trend tests were not used. Definitions Violent crime is defined in this report as attempted or completed rape, sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault. Definitions used in this report are as follows: Rape is forced sexual intercourse, including both psychological coercion and physical force. Forced sexual intercourse means vaginal, anal, or oral penetration by the offender(s). This category includes incidents where the penetration is from a foreign object such as a bottle. This definition includes attempted rapes, male and female victims, and heterosexual and homosexual rape. Sexual assault includes a wide range of victimizations, distinct from rape or attempted rape. These crimes include completed or attempted attacks generally involving unwanted sexual contact between the victim and offender. Sexual assaults may or may not involve force and include such things as grabbing or fondling. Sexual assault also includes verbal threats. Robbery is a completed or attempted theft directly from a person, of property or cash by force or threat of force, with or without a weapon, and with or without an injury. Aggravated assault is a completed or attempted attack with a weapon, whether or not an injury occurred. It is also an attack without a weapon in which the victim is seriously injured. Simple assault is an attack without a weapon resulting either in no injury, minor injury (such as bruises, black eyes, cuts, scratches, or swelling), or an undetermined injury requiring less than 2 days of hospitalization. Simple assaults also include attempted assaults without a weapon. Burglary is the unlawful or forcible entry or attempted entry of a residence. This crime usually, but not always, involves theft. The illegal entry may be by force, such as breaking a window or slashing a screen, or may be without force by entering through an unlocked door or an open window. As long as the person entering has no legal right to be present in the structure a burglary has occurred. Furthermore, the structure need not be the house itself for a burglary to take place; illegal entry of a garage, shed, or any other structure on the premises also constitutes household burglary. If breaking and entering occurs in a hotel or vacation residence, it is still classified as a burglary for the household whose member or members were staying there at the time the entry occurred. Motor vehicle theft includes the stealing or unauthorized taking of a motor vehicle, including attempted thefts. Theft is the taking of property or cash without personal contact. Incidents involving theft of property from within the sample household would classify as theft if the offender has a legal right to be in the house (such as a maid, delivery person, or guest). If the offender has no legal right to be in the house, the incident would classify as a burglary. ---------------------------------------------- The Bureau of Justice Statistics is the statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Justice. Lawrence A. Greenfeld is director. This report continues the BJS Bulletin series of Criminal Victimization. BJS Bulletins present the first release of findings from permanent data collection programs such as the National Crime Victimization Survey. Callie M. Rennison, BJS Statistician, wrote this report under the supervision of Michael Rand. Marianne Zawitz, BJS Statistician, produced figures showing ranges and best estimates. Timothy C. Hart provided statistical review. Tom Hester produced and edited the report. Jayne Robinson administered final production. August 2002, NCJ 194610 ---------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------- This report and additional data, analyses, and graphs about criminal victimization in the United States are available on the Internet at Http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/ For questions or comments about this or any BJS report, email to ASKBJS@ojp.usdoj.gov. Data presented in this report can be obtained from the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data at the University of Michigan, 1-800-999-0960. The archive can also be accessed through the BJS Web site. When at the archive site, search for dataset ICPSR 3140. ---------------------------------------------- End of file 09/09/02 ih Revised 09/18/02 th