U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics Arrest in the United States, 1990-2010 Howard N. Snyder, Ph.D., BJS Statistician October 2012, NCJ 239423 ------------------------------------------ This file is text only without graphics and many of the tables. A Zip archive of the tables in this report in spreadsheet format (.csv) and the full report including tables and graphics in .pdf format are available on BJS website at: http://bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4515 This report is one in a series. More recent editions may be available. To view a list of all in the series go to http://bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbse&sid= -------------------------------------------------------- ************* Highlights ************* * The number of murder arrests in the U.S. fell by half between 1990 and 2010. The adult and juvenile arrest rates dropped substantially in the 1990s, while both continued to fall about 20% between 2000 and 2010, reaching their lowest levels since at least 1990. * The forcible rape arrest rate fell 59% between 1990 and 2010, relatively consistently across the period. * While the aggravated assault arrest rate fell 31% between 1990 and 2010, the simple assault arrest rate remained essentially unchanged over the period. In 2010, the simple assault arrest rate for females was at its highest level in at least two decades, up 75% since 1990; in contrast, in 2010, the male arrest rate was at its lowest level in two decades, 12% below its 1990 level. * The male arrest rate for larceny-theft in 2010 was about half of the rate in 1990. In comparison, the female arrest rate in 2010 was just 8% below its 1990 level. The female rate fell 25% between 1990 and 2000, remained constant for several years, then grew between 2005 and 2010 to erase most of the decline experienced in the 1990s. * The male arrest rate for motor vehicle theft in 2010 was a fourth of its 1990 level, and the female arrest rate was half its 1990 value. * The juvenile and adult arrest rates for weapon law violations in 2010 were half of what they had been at their peaks in mid-1990s. * There were 80% more arrests for drug possession or use in 2010 than in 1990. Even though the rate declined between 2006 and 2010, the arrest rate for drug possession or use in 2010 was still 46% above its 1990 level and was at levels similar to those seen between 1997 and 2002. * In 2010, state and local law enforcement agencies made one arrest for drug sale or manufacture for every four arrests for drug possession or use. While the arrest rate for drug possession or use increased substantially between 1990 and 2010, the arrest rate for drug sale or manufacture in 2010 was at its lowest level in the period, and 30% below its 1990 level. ************************************* ************* Introduction ************* The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program collects counts of arrests (including citations and summonses) in several offense and demographic categories from participating state and local law enforcement agencies. For many years, the FBI has published national estimates of arrests based on these data in its Crime in the United States series. In Crime in the United States, 2010, the FBI estimated that state and local law enforcement agencies made a total of 13,122,000 arrests in 2010, and provided national arrest estimates in 28 separate offense categories. This report expands the FBI’s set of published national arrest estimates to include estimates of arrests in various age, sex, and race groups within offense categories (tables 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6) and changes in arrest rates by offense and demographic groups (table 7). The report also contains graphs displaying trends in arrest rates for individual offenses between 1990 and 2010 and graphs of age-specific arrest rates for 1990, 2000 and 2010. These figures show changes in arrest rates and provide insight into the flow of individuals into the criminal justice system over time. To interpret the arrest statistics in this report, readers should review the FBI’s counting rules discussed in the Methodology. This report uses arrest rates rather than arrest counts to display arrest trends because rates control for changes in the size of the reference population over the period. In addition, readers should carefully review graph legends before studying the report’s graphs because some arrest rates have been multiplied by a constant to make the trends more visible. In addition to this report, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) has an online data analysis tool that enables users to generate graphs and tables of national arrest trends and arrest rates for a large set of offenses and population subgroups. Although this report does not analyze arrests and arrest rates by the offender’s race, arrest data by race are available in the online tool on the BJS website. This data tool enables users to produce, with little effort, customized information that is often not readily available or that cannot be found in any other source. ************************************ Murder and non-negligent manslaughter ************************************ The UCR defines murder (and non-negligent manslaughter) as the willful killing of one human being by another. It excludes deaths caused by negligence, accidental deaths, and justifiable homicides (i.e., the killing of a felon by a law enforcement officer in the line of duty, or the killing of a felon during the commission of a felony by a private citizen). State and local law enforcement agencies made an estimated 11,200 arrests for murder in 2010 (table 1). Females were 11% of these arrests. The median age in murder arrests was 26 (i.e., half of all murder arrests involved persons age 26 or younger, and half involved persons age 26 or older). Nine percent of murder arrests in 2010 involved a juvenile (i.e., a person under age 18), 18% involved persons age 40 or older, and 8% involved persons age 50 or older. The murder arrest rate declined substantially between 1990 and 2010, falling 61% over the period (figure 1, table 7). While most of the decline occurred between 1990 and 2000, the arrest rate continued to decline between 2000 and 2010, falling 23% in the period. The murder arrest rate in 2010 was at its lowest level in at least two decades. In absolute terms, the number of murder arrests in the U.S. was cut in half between 1990 and 2010, from 23,000 arrests in 1990 to 11,200 arrests in 2010. For murder and most of the other offenses discussed in this report, the large declines in arrest rates were mainly due to decreases in the respective crime rates. The murder arrest trends between 1990 and 2010 were generally similar for males and females (and therefore similar to the overall trend) (figure 2. ***Footnote* Some arrest rates have been multiplied by a constant to make the trends visible.*** The arrest rate trends differed for juveniles and adults (figure 3). In the early 1990s, as the adult rate declined marginally, the juvenile arrest rate for murder reached historic highs, peaking in 1993. Between 1993 and 2000, while the adult arrest rate dropped 44%, the juvenile arrest rate fell 71%. Between 2000 and 2010, although the adult and the juvenile arrest rates did not decline as much as they had in the 1990s, both rates continued their downward trend to fall around 20% over the period. In 2010, both the juvenile and the adult arrest rates were at their lowest levels since at least 1990. The murder arrest rate peaked in 2010 at age 19 (figure 4). As these age-arrest curves show, the changes in murder arrest rates over the period from 1990 to 2010 did not occur uniformly across age groups. While the period from 1990 to 2000 saw large declines across all age groups, the overall decline in the murder arrest rate between 2000 and 2010 was primarily the result of continuing declines in arrests for older juveniles and young adults (i.e., persons between 17 and 29 years old). ************************************ Forcible rape and other sex offenses ************************************ Currently, for UCR arrest statistics, forcible rape is defined as the carnal knowledge of a female forcibly and against her will. This definition includes rape, attempts to rape, and assaults to rape, regardless of the age of the victim. This definition of forcible rape is limited to the act of sexual intercourse, or the penetration of a female sexual organ by a male sexual organ. Forcible rape excludes other types of violent sexual assaults (i.e., forcible sodomy, forcible sex with an object, and forcible fondling) and other types of sex offenses (e.g., prostitution, commercialized vice, incest, indecent exposure, and statutory rape). State and local law enforcement agencies made about 20,100 arrests for forcible rape in 2010. Females were 1% of these arrests. The median age in forcible rape arrests was 28. Fourteen percent of these arrests in 2010 involved a juvenile, 23% involved persons age 40 or older, and 9% involved persons age 50 or older. The forcible rape arrest rate fell 59% between 1990 and 2010 (figure 5). The decline was relatively consistent across the period. In the most recent 5-year period, from 2005 to 2010, the forcible rate arrest rate fell 25%. The overall percentage changes in the arrest rate from 1990 to 2010 were similar for juveniles (down 58%) and adults (down 59%), as were the juvenile (down 29%) and adult (down 24%) changes from 2005 to 2010 (figure 6). Consistent with this pattern, the age-arrest curves show the proportional declines in arrest rates between 1990 and 2010 across the age spectrum (figure 7). In 2010, the forcible rape arrest rate peaked at age 19. In 2010, law enforcement agencies made an estimated 135,300 arrests for sex offenses other than forcible rape. This category includes offenses ranging from violent sex assaults other than forcible rape to prostitution and commercialized vice to indecent exposure and statutory rape. About half (62,700) of these arrests were arrests for prostitution and commercialized vice. Two-thirds (69%) of prostitution and commercialized vice arrests in 2010 were arrests of females, with a median age at arrest of 30 for females and 36 for males. Two percent of prostitution and commercialized vice arrests in 2010 involved a juvenile, a proportion that has averaged between 1% and 2% since at least 1990. In 2010, 30% of prostitution and commercialized vice arrests involved persons age 40 or older and 9% involved persons age 50 or older. In 2010, the arrest rate for prostitution and commercialized vice peaked at age 22, with a peak age of 20 for females and the late 20s for males. From 1990 to 2010, the arrest rate for prostitution and commercialized vice was cut in half (down 55%), with substantial declines in both the male (down 62%) and female (down 50%) arrest rates (figure 8). The recent period from 2005 to 2010 also saw large declines in the male (down 35%) and female (down 27%) arrest rates for prostitution and commercialized vice. ********* Robbery ********* The UCR defines robbery as taking or attempting to take anything of value from the care, custody, or control of a person or persons, by force, threat of force, violence, or by putting the victim in fear. State and local law enforcement agencies made an estimated 112,300 arrests for robbery in 2010. Females were 12% of these arrests. The median age in robbery arrests in 2010 was 21. Twenty-four percent of robbery arrests in 2010 involved a juvenile, 11% involved persons age 40 or older, and 3% involved persons age 50 or older. The robbery arrest rate fell sharply (down 42%) from 1995 to 2000 and then remained relatively constant through 2010 (figure 9). Given that males were involved in a large majority of these arrests, the trend in the male arrest rate followed a similar pattern, declining 42% from 1995 to 2000 and stabilizing thereafter (figure 10). In contrast, while the robbery arrest rate for females declined 38% between 1995 and 2000 (similarly to the male rate), it increased 19% between 2000 and 2010. As a result, between 1990 and 2010 the decline in the male arrest rate for robbery (down 49%) was greater than the decline in the female rate (down 19%). The juvenile and adult arrest rates for robbery in 2010 were near their lowest levels in a 20-year period (figure 11). Over the period from 1990 to 2010, declines in the robbery arrest rates for juveniles (down 41%) and adults (down 47%) were similar, as were the more recent juvenile (down 7%) and adult (down 6%) declines between 2005 and 2010. The difference in these two trends occurred in the 1990s. While the adult arrest rate for robbery declined consistently during the 1990s, the juvenile rate increased through the middle of the decade before beginning a substantial decline; as a result, between 1990 and 2000 both rates declined about 40%. The juvenile arrest rates for the violent offenses of murder and aggravated assault also peaked in the mid-1990s. In 2010, the robbery arrest rate peaked at age 18 (figure 12). The age-arrest curves show a substantial decline in arrest rates across all ages from 1990 to 2000. The similarity in the 2000 and 2010 curves reflect the stability in the robbery arrest rates over this period for all age groups. ******************* Aggravated assault ******************* The UCR defines aggravated assault as an unlawful attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury. This type of assault usually is accompanied by the use of a weapon or by means likely to produce death or great bodily harm. It excludes simple assaults: crimes in which no weapon is used or no serious or aggravated injury results to the victim. State and local law enforcement agencies made an estimated 408,500 arrests for aggravated assault in 2010. Females were 23% of these arrests. The median age in aggravated assault arrests was 29. Eleven percent of aggravated assault arrests in 2010 involved a juvenile, 25% involved persons age 40 or older, and 9% involved persons age 50 or older. The aggravated assault arrest rate began to fall in the mid- 1990s (figure 13). From its peak in 1995 to 2010, the aggravated assault arrest rate declined 38%. It declined 13% between 2005 and 2010. In 2010, the male arrest rate for aggravated assault was at its lowest level since at least 1990. This was not true for the female rate (figure 14). The female arrest rate for aggravated assault increased 47% between 1990 and 1995. The female rate then gradually declined after 1995, but in 2010 it was still 35% above its 1990 level. Trends in the juvenile and adult arrest rates were very similar between 1990 and 2010 (figure 15). Over this period, the adult arrest rate fell 30% and the juvenile arrest rate fell 40%, both reaching their lowest levels in at least two decades in 2010. In the most recent 5-year period, the decline in the juvenile arrest rate for aggravated assault (down 28%) was greater than the decline in the adult arrest rate (down 11%). The aggravated assault arrest rate peaked in 2010 at age 21, while the peak was age 18 in 1990 (figure 16). In general, the decline in the aggravated assault arrest rate between 1990 and 2010 was greater for juveniles and younger adults than for older adults. In fact, the aggravated assault arrest rates for persons age 40 or older in 2010 were about the same as in 1990. *************** Simple assault *************** The UCR defines simple assault as an assault or attempted assault that does not involve a weapon or no serious or aggravated injury results to the victim. Stalking, intimidation, coercion, and hazing are included in this category of offense. State and local law enforcement agencies made an estimated 1,292,500 arrests for simple assault in 2010. Females were 27% of these arrests. The median age in simple assault arrests was 28. Sixteen percent of simple assault arrests in 2010 involved a juvenile, 24% involved persons age 40 or older, and 8% involved persons age 50 or older. In 2010, the FBI reported three arrests for simple assault for every one arrest for aggravated assault; the ratio was 2-to-1 in 1990. While the aggravated assault arrest rate fell 31% between 1990 and 2010, the simple assault arrest rate remained essentially unchanged over the period (figure 17). There were large differences in the male and female arrest rate trends. In 2010, the simple assault arrest rate for females was at its highest level in at least two decades, up 75% since 1990. In contrast, in 2010, the male arrest rate was at its lowest level in two decades, 12% below its 1990 level (figure 18). Nearly all of the growth in the female arrest rate during this period occurred between 1990 and 1997. From 1997 to 2010, the female rate remained relatively constant. While both the juvenile and adult arrest rate trends for aggravated assault followed a similar pattern of decline between the mid-1990s and 2010, the simple assault arrest rate trends differed for the two age groups. Between 1990 and 1997, the increase in the juvenile arrest rate (48%) was greater than the adult increase (22%)(figure 19). After 1997, the adult arrest rate gradually declined, and by 2010, it had returned to its 1990 level. In contrast, the juvenile rate remained relatively constant from the mid-1990s through the mid-2000s, then declined 17% between 2005 and 2010. Despite this decline, the juvenile arrest rate for simple assault in 2010 was still 21% above its 1990 level. In 2010, the simple assault arrest rate peaked at age 16, the youngest peak age of a violent crime (figure 20). The simple assault age-arrest curves show the changing age composition of adult arrests between 1990 and 2010. Simple assault arrest declined for younger adults between 1990 and 2010, which helped to dampen the increase in the arrest rates for older adults age 35 or older. The age-arrest curves for males and females separately show that from 1990 to 2010 the simple assault arrest rates for females increased across all ages, while it increased for older adult males and declined for young adult males (not shown). ********* Burglary ********* The UCR defines burglary as the unlawful entry into a structure (home, apartment, barn, church, factory, garage, or school) to commit a felony or a theft. Thefts from automobiles or coin-operated machines (non-structures) and shoplifting from commercial establishments (lawful entries) are classified as larceny-thefts, not burglaries. A larceny- theft may be an element of a burglary (a person enters a home and steals property), but an arrest for such crimes is classified as a burglary using the UCR’s hierarchy rule. (See the Methodology for an explanation of the UCR’s hierarchy rule.) State and local law enforcement agencies made an estimated 289,800 arrests for burglary in 2010. Females were 15% of these arrests. The median age in burglary arrests was 22. Twenty-three percent of burglary arrests in 2010 involved a juvenile, 14% involved persons age 40 or older, and 4% involved persons age 50 or older. The burglary arrest rate fell 41% between 1990 and 2000 and remained relatively constant through 2010 (figure 21). This decline was seen in male but not female arrest rates (figure 22). While the male arrest rate for burglary declined 44% between 1990 and 2000 and 12% between 2000 and 2010, the female arrest rate changed very little over the entire period. The adult arrest rate also mirrored the overall trend. Unlike the adult rate, the juvenile arrest rate for burglary continued to decline after 2000, falling 33% between 2000 and 2010 (figure 23). In all, between 1990 and 2010, the adult arrest rate for burglary fell 39% while the juvenile rate fell 61%. The burglary arrest rate peaked at age 18 in 2010 (figure 24). The age-arrest curves show the substantial declines between 1990 and 2000 in the burglary arrest rates for juveniles and younger adults (i.e., persons under age 35) and the continuing decline between 2000 and 2010 for juveniles. *************** Larceny-theft *************** The UCR defines larceny-theft as unlawfully taking, carrying, leading, or riding away with property from the possession or constructive possession of another. Larceny-theft includes shoplifting, bicycle theft, theft of motor vehicle parts and accessories, pocketpicking, or the stealing of any property or article that is not taken by force and violence or by fraud. Embezzlement, confidence games, forgery, check fraud, etc., are excluded. Motor vehicle theft is also excluded from this arrest statistic. State and local law enforcement agencies made an estimated 1,271,400 arrests for larceny-theft in 2010. Females were 44% of these arrests, a percentage much larger than in burglary (15%) and motor vehicle theft (17%) but similar to the percentage of fraud arrests (42%). (Fraud is a crime that involves a taking by deceit and includes such acts as the misuse of a credit card or writing bad checks.) The median age in larceny-theft arrests was 24. Twenty-two percent of larceny-theft arrests in 2010 involved a juvenile, 20% involved persons age 40 or older, and 7% involved persons age 50 or older. Similarly to the arrest rate trend for burglary, the larceny- theft arrest rate declined between 1990 and 2000 (falling 34%), fluctuated within a narrow range between 2000 and 2010, and ended the decade at the same level as in 2000 (figure 25). The male arrest rate likewise fell through the 1990s, dropping 38% between 1990 and 2000, and continued a much more gradual decline between 2000 and 2010 (figure 26). As a result, the male arrest rate for larceny-theft in 2010 was about half of its 1990 level. In comparison, the female arrest rate for larceny-theft in 2010 was just 8% below its 1990 level. The female rate fell 25% between 1990 and 2000 and then remained constant for several years, but the growth in the female arrest rate between 2005 and 2010 erased most of the decline during the 1990s. The declines in the juvenile (down 31%) and the adult (down 35%) arrest rates for larceny-theft were similar between 1990 and 2000 (figure 27). However, between 2000 and 2010, while the juvenile rate continued to decline (falling 25%), the adult rate increased 10%. Both the juvenile and adult arrest rates for larceny-theft reached their lowest levels in the entire period during 2006. In 2010, while the adult arrest rate for larceny-theft was 18% above its lowest point, the juvenile arrest rate was near its lowest level since at least 1990. In 2010, the larceny-theft arrest rate peaked at age 18 (figure 28). The age-arrest curves show that the overall decline in the larceny-theft arrest rate between 1990 and 2010 was linked to large drops in the arrest rates for juveniles and adults ages 25 to 40. Over this long period, the larceny-theft arrest rates for persons ages 19 and 20 fell relatively little. ******************** Motor vehicle theft ******************** The UCR defines motor vehicle theft as the theft or attempted theft of a motor vehicle. A motor vehicle is self-propelled and runs on a land surface and not on rails. Motorboats, construction equipment, airplanes, and farming equipment are specifically excluded from this category. Thefts of these items would be larceny-thefts. State and local law enforcement agencies made an estimated 71,500 arrests for motor vehicle theft in 2010. Females were 17% of these arrests. The median age in motor vehicle theft arrests was 23. Twenty-two percent of motor vehicle theft arrests in 2010 involved a juvenile, 15% involved persons age 40 or older, and 4% involved persons age 50 or older. In 1990, there were 211,300 arrests for motor vehicle theft, almost three times more than in 2010. The period between 1999 and 2005 saw relative stability in the motor vehicle theft arrest rate, while the periods from 1990 to 1999 (down 40%) and 2005 to 2010 (down 54%) each had large declines (figure 29). As a result, the 2010 motor vehicle theft arrest rate was 73% below its 1990 level. While the trend in the male arrest rate generally followed the overall pattern, the trend in the female arrest rate for motor vehicle theft showed little change between 1990 and 2005 (figure 30). Over this period, while the male arrest rate was cut in half (down 47%), the female arrest rate remained essentially unchanged (up just 6%). Both the male and the female arrest rates were cut in half (both falling 54%) between 2005 and 2010. As a result, the male arrest rate for motor vehicle theft in 2010 was a fourth of its 1990 level, and the female arrest rate was half of its 1990 value. The juvenile proportion of motor vehicle theft arrests in the U.S. was cut in half between 1990 (43%) and 2010 (22%). Correspondingly, over this period, the motor vehicle theft arrest rate declined more for juveniles (down 85%) than for adults (down 63%) (figure 31). While both arrest rates were cut by more than half between 2005 and 2010, the period from 1990 to 2005 saw a much greater decline in the juvenile (down 64%) than the adult (down 24%) arrest rate for motor vehicle theft. In 2010, the motor vehicle theft arrest rate peaked at age 18 (figure 32). The age-arrest curves show the steady decline in the motor vehicle theft arrest rate across the entire age spectrum from 1990 to 2000 and then again from 2000 to 2010, with the largest proportional declines in the juvenile arrest rates. ********************** Weapon law violations ********************** The UCR defines weapon law violations as violations of laws or ordinances that prohibit the manufacture, sale, purchase, transportation, possession, concealment, or use of firearms, cutting instruments, explosives, incendiary devices, or other deadly weapons. Attempts to violate these laws are included. The UCR’s hierarchy rule classifies an arrest in this category only when the weapon law violation is the most serious charge in the arrest. Arrests for murder with a firearm, rape with a deadly weapon, armed robbery, aggravated assault with a weapon, or carjacking with a gun (even though these crimes involve a weapon) would not be classified as weapon law violation arrests in the UCR arrest statistics. (See the Methodology for more details about the UCR’s hierarchy rule.) State and local law enforcement agencies made an estimated 159,000 arrests for weapon law violations in 2010. Females were 18% of these arrests. The median age in weapon law violation arrests was 23. Twenty percent of weapon law violation arrests in 2010 involved a juvenile, 16% involved persons age 40 or older, and 6% involved persons age 50 or older. In 1990, state and local law enforcement agencies made 221,200 arrests for weapon law violations, almost 40% more than in 2010. In the last two decades, the arrest rate for weapon law violations peaked in 1993 and fell through the remainder of the decade (figure 33). By 2000, the arrest rate had fallen over 40% from its 1993 high. Between 2000 and 2008, the arrest rate varied within a limited range before the declines in 2009 and 2010 brought the arrest rate to its lowest level since at least 1990. The arrest rate for weapon law violations declined 42% overall between 1990 and 2010. The arrest rate trends for males and females paralleled each other from 1990 to 2010, with overall declines in the male rate (down 43%) and the female rate (down 33%) (figure 34). The juvenile and the adult arrest rates paralleled each other for most of this period, from the mid-1990s onward. The trends differed between 1990 and 1994, when the juvenile rate increased nearly 50% and the adult arrest rate changed very little. In 2010, the juvenile and the adult arrest rates for weapon law violations were half of their peak levels in mid- 1990s. The weapon law violation arrest rate peaked at age 18 in 2010 (figure 36). The age-arrest curves show large declines in the arrest rates for weapon law violations across all ages from 1990 to 2000. Between 2000 and 2010, the continuing declines were primarily found in the arrests of persons under the age of 23. ********************** Drug abuse violations ********************** The UCR defines drug abuse violations as violations of laws that prohibit the production, importation, distribution, possession, or use of certain controlled substances (e.g., marijuana, opium, and cocaine and their derivatives, and synthetic narcotics). The UCR divides drug abuse violation arrests into two general categories: (1) possession or use, and (2) sale or manufacture. State and local law enforcement agencies made an estimated 1,336,500 arrests for drug possession or use in 2010. Females were 20% of these arrests. The median age in drug possession or use arrests was 26. Eleven percent of drug possession or use arrests in 2010 involved a juvenile, 18% involved persons age 40 or older, and 6% involved persons age 50 or older. There were 80% more arrests for drug possession or use in 2010 (1,336,530) than in 1990 (741,600). Between 1990 and its peak in 2006, the arrest rate for drug possession or use increased 75% (figure 37). The arrest rate declined between 2006 and 2010, ending in 2010 at 46% above its 1990 level and at a level similar to those seen between 1997 and 2002. The male and female arrest rate trends for drug possession or use were similar to the overall trend (figure 38). Between 1990 and 1997, the increases in the male (51%) and female (56%) arrest rates were similar. Both arrest rates then remained relatively constant through 2002, peaked in 2006, and declined through 2010. In 2010, the arrest rate for drug possession or use had fallen 17% for males and 16% for females from their 2006 peaks. The juvenile and adult arrest rate trends differed over the period from 1990 to 2010 (figure 39). While both arrest rates for drug possession or use increased substantially between 1990 and 1997, the increase in the juvenile rate (207%) was far greater than the increase in the adult rate (41%). From its peak in 1997 through 2010, the juvenile arrest rate for drug possession or use gradually declined, falling 20% in the period. Due to its substantial growth in the 1990s, the juvenile arrest rate for drug possession or use in 2010 was 147% above its 1990 level. In contrast to the declining juvenile trend, the adult arrest rate experienced a short period of stability between 1997 and 2002 and then increased to a peak in 2006 before falling through 2010. In 2010, the adult arrest rate for drug possession or use had returned to the levels of the late 1990s and was 36% above its 1990 level. In 2010, the drug possession or use arrest rate peaked at age 18 (figure 40). The age-arrest curves show that the increases between 1990 and 2010 in the arrest rates for drug possession or use occurred unevenly across the age spectrum, with the largest percentage increases for persons under the age of 21 and above the age of 40. Over the period, the arrest rates of persons ages 25 to 35 were relatively stable. In 2010, state and local law enforcement agencies made an estimated 302,300 arrests for drug sale or manufacture, one such arrest for every four arrests for drug possession or use. Eighteen percent of these were arrests of females. The median age in drug sale or manufacture arrests was 28. Eight percent of drug sale or manufacture arrests in 2010 involved a juvenile, 19% involved persons age 40 or older, and 7% involved persons age 50 or older. In stark contrast to the substantial increase in arrests for drug possession or use over the period, there were 13% fewer arrests for drug sale or manufacture in 2010 than in 1990 (347,900). Although there were fluctuations from year to year, over the period, the arrest rate for drug sale or manufacture gradually declined. In 2010, the arrest rate for drug sale or manufacture was at its lowest level in the period, and 30% below its 1990 level (figure 41). The male (down 32%) and the female (down 19%) arrest rates for drug sale or manufacture declined between 1990 and 2010, both falling to levels at or near their lowest of the period (figure 42). In 2010, both the juvenile and adult arrest rates for drug sale or manufacture were also at their lowest levels in at least 20 years (figure 43). In 2010, the drug sale or manufacture arrest rate peaked at age 19, one year higher than the drug possession or use peak (figure 44). The age-arrest curves show a general decline in the age-specific arrest rates across the age spectrum between 1990 and 2010, although the declines did not occur in the same time periods. Between 1990 and 2000, the arrest rates of persons between age 25 and 35 fell to levels that would also be seen in 2010. In contrast, the decline in the arrest rates of juveniles and very young adults did not occur between 1990 and 2000 (in fact, for some ages there was an increase), but happened between 2000 and 2010 after the arrest rates of older adults had stabilized. ************* Methodology ************* The Criminal Justice Information Services (CJIS) Division of the FBI provided the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) with the set of annual Age, Sex, and Race (ASR) Arrest Master Files for the years 1990 through 2010. Each of these annual files holds counts of the reported arrests from each law enforcement agency that submitted its arrest data for the complete 12-month period. The files also contain an estimate of the population served by each agency. The FBI classifies law enforcement agencies into nine population groups based on the estimated annual population and the nature of the community that the agency serves. From 1990 to 2010, on average, 60% of law enforcement agencies in the UCR annually reported complete 12-month arrest counts. These agencies served an average of 77% of the U.S. resident population. The population coverage was greater than the proportion of agencies reporting because larger agencies reported at a higher rate than smaller agencies. On average, over the period, agencies annually reported 79% of all arrests estimated to have occurred in the U.S. The estimation procedures used in this bulletin were designed to develop the offense and demographic attributes of the 21% of arrests that the FBI estimated occurred in the nonreporting law enforcement agencies. An assessment of the coverage of the annual samples is in table 2. In the first step of the estimation process, the annual 12- month arrest counts were summed for all law enforcement agencies within each of the nine population groups. Two tables were produced for each population group with arrest counts at the most detailed demographic levels supported by the data. These two table shells were: * Offense (in 33 offense categories) by age of arrestee (in 22 age groups) by sex (in two categories—male and female) * Offense (using 33 offense categories) by age of arrestee (in two age categories—juvenile and adult) and race (in four race categories—white; black; American Indian or Alaska Native; and Asian, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander). Next, the cells in these 18 tables (i.e., 2 shells for each of 9 strata) were each weighted by a factor equal to the total population served by all law enforcement agencies in the population group divided by the population served by all reporting law enforcement agencies in the population group. Then, the nine Offense by Age by Sex tables were combined into one table, as were the nine Offense by Age by Race tables. Finally, the cells in these two tables were each multiplied by the ratio of the FBI’s annual national offense- specific arrest estimate divided by the sum of all cells in the table with that offense. This transformed each of these table cells into a national estimate for that cell’s demographic subgroup. This process made all of the annual arrest count estimates for the subgroups internally consistent with the FBI’s published national estimates. Arrest rates were calculated using national resident population estimates for the various subgroups developed by the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics. Estimates of the U.S. resident population from 1990 through 1999 can be found at--National Center for Health Statistics. Bridged-race intercensal estimates of the July 1, 1990-July 1, 1999 United States resident population by county, single- year of age (0, 1, 2, .., 85 years and over), sex, race, and Hispanic origin, prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau with support from the National Cancer Institute. Available from ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/datasets/nvss/br idgepop/icen_natA1.txt. Downloaded 3/15/2011. Estimates of the U.S. resident population from 2000 through 2010 can be found at—National Center for Health Statistics. Vintage Bridged-race postcensal estimates of the July 1, 2000-July 1, 2009 United States resident population by year, single-year of age (0, 1, 2, .., 85 years and over), sex, bridged race, and Hispanic origin. Prepared under a collaborative arrangement with the U.S. Census Bureau. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/bridged_race.htm as of May, 31, 2012. 2012, following release by the U.S. Census Bureau of the unbridged Vintage 2010 postcensal estimates by 5-year age group on March 29, 2012. ******************** UCR counting rules ******************** Less than half of all victims of violent and property crimes reported their crimes to law enforcement in 2010, according to data from the National Crime Victimization Survey. For crimes known to law enforcement, less than half of violent crimes and less than a fifth of property crimes were cleared by arrest. Therefore, the annual number of arrests underestimates substantially the number of crimes committed. In addition, arrest trends cannot be assumed to parallel crime trends. Only if the many factors that influence arrest rates (e.g., victim reporting rates, crime clearance rates) were to remain constant over time, could trends in arrests be used to infer trends in crime. Finally, an annual arrest count should not be interpreted as the number of persons arrested in the year. Arrests could only be interpreted as a count of persons arrested if every person arrested in the year were arrested only once in the year--which is clearly untrue. In the end, the most appropriate way to interpret arrest statistics is as a measure of the flow of matters into law enforcement agencies. Readers should be aware of some nuances of the counting rules used by the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) to interpret arrest statistics properly: The hierarchy rule: The FBI requires law enforcement agencies to apply an offense hierarchy rule when reporting arrests. That is, if a person is arrested and charged with multiple offenses (e.g., robbery and possession of a weapon), the arrest is reported to the UCR as a single arrest for the most serious charge (in this case, robbery). As a result, more arrests are made for most crimes (e.g., weapon law violations) than are reflected in the UCR statistics. A single arrest for multiple crimes: A single arrest can cover many separate criminal acts. For example, a person may be arrested once and charged with stealing five automobiles over a period of several weeks. The UCR arrest data would count one arrest for motor vehicle theft. Multiple arrests for a single crime: A single crime can result in multiple arrests. If three people steal an automobile and all are arrested, the UCR arrest statistics would show three arrests for motor vehicle theft. ******************************************************* The Bureau of Justice Statistics is the statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Justice. James P. Lynch is the director. This report was written by Howard Snyder. Alexia Cooper provided statistical review and verification of the report. Vanessa Curto and Jill Thomas edited the report, and Barbara Quinn and Tina Dorsey produced the report under the supervision of Doris J. James. October 2012, NCJ 239423 ****************************************************** ****************************************************** Office of Justice Programs * Innovation * Partnerships * Safer Neighborhoods * http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov ****************************************************** ______________________ 10/23/12/JER/1:00pm ______________________