U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics September 2011, NCJ 234319 BJS Patterns & Trends Arrest in the United States, 1980-2009 Howard N. Snyder, Ph.D., BJS Statistician ---------------------------------------------------------- This file is text only without graphics and many of the tables. A Zip archive of the tables in this report in spreadsheet format (.csv) and the full report including tables and graphics in .pdf format are available on BJS website at: http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=2203. ----------------------------------------------------------- Highlights * The U.S. murder arrest rate in 2009 was about half of what it was in the early 1980s. Over the 30-year period ending in 2009, the adult arrest rate for murder fell 57%, while the juvenile arrest rate fell 44%. * From 1980 to 2009, the black forcible rape arrest rate declined 70%, while the white arrest rate fell 31%. * In 1980 the male arrest rate for aggravated assault was 8 times greater than the female rate; by 2009 the male rate had fallen to 4 times the female rate. This is because the male arrest rate was about the same in 1980 and 2009, while the female arrest rate doubled over the period. * The burglary arrest rate declined substantially and rather consistently between 1980 and 2009, falling 57% over the 30-year period. Over the same period, the male arrest rate for burglary declined 61%, while the female rate remained essentially constant. * In 1980, juvenile arrests made up 38% of all larceny-theft arrests; by 2009, this percentage had fallen to 24%. Over the 30-year period, the juvenile arrest rate for larceny-theft declined 40%, while the adult arrest rate ended the period near where it had begun. * In 1980, 22% of all drug law violation arrests were for drug sale or manufacture. This proportion peaked in 1991 at 36% and fell to 19% by 2009. * Between 1980 and 2009, while the adult arrest rate for drug possession or use grew 138%, the juvenile arrest rate increased 33%. Similarly, from 1980 to 2009, the increase in the arrest rate for drug sale or manufacture was greater for adults (77%) than for juveniles (31%). Introduction This report presents newly developed national estimates of arrests and arrest rates covering the 30-year period from 1980 to 2009, based on data from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR). By reviewing trends over the 30 years, readers can develop a detailed understanding of matters entering the criminal justice system in the U.S. through arrest. The UCR collects arrest data from participating state and local law enforcement agencies. These agencies provide monthly counts of their arrests (including citations and summons) for criminal acts within several offense categories. In Crime in the United States, 2009, the FBI estimated that the state and local law enforcement agencies covered by the UCR made 13,687,000 arrests in 2009. Statistics in this report expand the FBI's set of published arrest estimates to include estimates of arrests by age group, sex, and race within many offense categories. These detailed breakdowns of arrests and arrest trends provide a unique understanding of the flow of individuals into the criminal justice system over a long period of time. Within a single offense category, arrest trends often differ substantially for males and females, juveniles and adults, and racial groups. To interpret the arrest statistics presented in the report, readers are encouraged to review the FBI's counting rules discussed in the Methodology. This report uses arrest rates rather than arrest counts to display 30-year trends, because rates control for changes in the size of the reference population over this time period. In addition, readers should review graph legends before studying the graphs because some arrest rates have been multiplied by a constant to make the trends more visible. In the graph legends throughout this report, American Indian/Alaskan Native is abbreviated as AIAN, and Asian/Pacific Islander is abbreviated as API. In addition to this report, BJS has developed an online data access tool that enables users to generate graphs and tables of national trendsin arrests and arrest rates for a large set of offenses and populationsubgroups. The online tool is available on the BJS website. This tool will enable policymakers, justice system professionals, advocates, the media, researchers, students, and the public to produce the specific information they need with little effort, information that is often not readily available or that cannot be found in any other resource. Murder and non-negligent manslaughter The UCR defines murder (and non-negligent manslaughter) as the willful killing of one human being by another. It excludes deaths caused by negligence, accidental deaths, and justifiable homicides (i.e., the killing of a felon by a law enforcement officer in the line of duty, or the killing of a felon during the commission of a felony by a private citizen). The annual murder arrest rate declined substantially in the U.S. between 1980 and 2009 (figure 1). The rate was relatively high in 1980. Between 1980 and the early 1990s, it fluctuated within a limited range, averaging 9 murder arrests for every 100,000 U.S. residents. After reaching its highest level in 1991, the arrest rate declined markedly. Between 1991 and 2000 the murder arrest rate fell 51%. After this sharp decline, the murder arrest rate remained relatively constant between 2000 and 2009, averaging less than 5 arrests per 100,000 U.S. residents. Over the 30-year period, 89% of arrests for murder were male arrests. he male arrest rate for murder, on average, was 8 times greater than the female arrest rate (figure 2). The male and female murder arrest rate trends showed very similar patterns from 1980 to 2009, each falling more than 50% over the period. The murder arrest trends for juveniles (persons under age 18) were more volatile than the trends for adults (figure 3). Between 1980 and 2009 the adult arrest rate for murder declined gradually and rather consistently, ending the period 57% below its 1980 level. In sharp contrast to the adult arrest trend, the juvenile arrest rate for murder increased between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s. During the 10-year period between 1984 and its peak in 1993, the juvenile arrest rate for murder increased by 162%. After 1993 the juvenile arrest rate fell substantially, and the increase seen between 1984 and 1993 was completely erased by 1999. The rate continued to fall after 1999 so that by 2009 the juvenile arrest rate for murder was at its lowest level in the 30-year period, which was 44% below its 1980 level and 72% below its peak in 1993. At their peak in 1993, juvenile arrests were 16% of all murder arrests in the U.S. In 2009, juveniles were involved in 9% of all murder arrests. Murder arrest rates and trends in these rates varied widely among racial groups. Over the 30-year period, the black arrest rate for murder averaged 7 times the white rate (figure 4). The American Indian/Alaskan Native (AIAN) rate averaged twice the white rate, while the Asian/Pacific Islander (API) rate averaged half the white rate. Between 1980 and 2009, the white arrest rate gradually declined, falling a total of 54%. In contrast, the black arrest rate for murder declined in the early 1980s, and then increased 43% between 1984 and 1991 to reach its peak for the period. Between 1991 and 2009, the black arrest rate for murder fell sharply, declining a total of 65%. As a result, over the entire period from 1980 to 2009, the black arrest rate for murder declined 58%, similar to the overall decline in the white rate. Forcible rape For UCR arrest statistics, forcible rape is defined as the carnal knowledge of a female forcibly and against her will. This definition includes rape, attempts to rape, and assaults to rape, regardless of the age of the victim. Statutory offenses (where no force is used and the victim is under age of consent) are excluded. This definition of forcible rape is limited to the act of sexual intercourse, or the penetration of a female sexual organ (vagina) by a male sexual organ (penis). This definition excludes other types of violent sexual assault such as forcible sodomy, forcible sex with an object, and forcible fondling. These three categories of violent sexual assault are distinguished in the FBI's National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). Capturing crimes reported in 2008 to law enforcement agencies with jurisdiction over about a fourth of the U.S. resident population, NIBRS showed that forcible rape as defined in the UCR arrest statistics represented 40% of all violent sexual assaults known to law enforcement. Over 99% of arrests for forcible rape in the 30-year period from 1980 through 2009 were male arrests. As a result, the overall arrest rate trend for forcible rape mirrors the 30-year male arrest rate trend. The forcible rape arrest rate was at its peak in the period from 1984 to 1991 (figure 5). Between 1991 and 2009, it declined substantially and rather consistently, falling a total of 56%. In 2009 the forcible rape arrest rate was at its lowest level in at least 30 years. Over the 30-year period the juvenile proportion of forcible rape arrests held relatively constant, averaging 16% of all forcible rape arrests annually and ranging from 14% to 17% (figure 6). The juvenile and the adult arrest rates for forcible rape followed a similar pattern over the 30-year period. Both began in 1980 at relatively high levels and ended in 2009 at their lowest levels in more than a generation. The decline in the forcible rape arrest rate was not similar across racial groups (figure 7). In 1980 the numbers of forcible rape arrests of whites and of blacks were nearly equal, being 51% and 47% of all forcible rape arrests respectively. In 1980, these counts translated into a black forcible rape arrest rate that was 7 times greater than the white arrest rate. From 1980 to 2009, the black forcible rape arrest rate declined 70%, the AIAN rate declined 67%, and the API rate declined 61%. In contrast, between 1980 and 2009 the white arrest rate for forcible rape declined 31%. As a result, by 2009 the black arrest rate for forcible rape had fallen to 3 times the white arrest rate. In 2009, 66% of all arrests for forcible rape involved whites and 31% involved blacks. The decline in the black arrest rate for forcible rape was shared by black juveniles and black adults. Both of these arrest rates fell about 70% between 1980 and 2009 (figure 8). The white adult arrest rate also fell rather consistently across this period, with a smaller overall decline of 35%. In contrast, the white juvenile arrest rate for forcible rape spiked in the early 1990s and then declined. Between 1980 and 1991 the white juvenile arrest rate for forcible rape increased 76%; after 1991 it declined so that by 2009 it was 9% below its 1980 level. Robbery The UCR defines robbery as taking or attempting to take anything of value from the care, custody, or control of a person or persons, by force, threat of force, violence, or by putting the victim in fear. From 1980 through 1996 the annual robbery arrest rate stayed within a limited range, never fluctuating by more than 10% from the average arrest rate of the period (figure 9). The years 1997 and 1998 were transition years; from 1996 to 1999 the robbery arrest rate fell 33%. Between 1999 and 2009 the rate once again stabilized within a limited range, never fluctuating by more than 8% from the period average. The robbery arrest rate in 2009 was 40% below its peak level in 1991 and 12% above its lowest level in the 30-year period in 2002. Over the 30-year period, 91% of robbery arrests were male arrests. On average, the male arrest rate for robbery was 11 times greater than the female arrest rate. However, the rates converged between 1980 and 2009; the ratio fell from 14 males to 1 female in 1980 to 8 to 1 in 2009 (figure 10). This convergence was the result of large decline in the male arrest rate coupled with a small increase in the female arrest rate. Between 1980 and 2009, while the female rate grew 9% over the period, the male arrest rate fell 40%. As a result, the female proportion of robbery arrests grew from 7% in 1980 to 12% in 2009. Between 1980 and 2009, 26% of all robbery arrests were juvenile arrests. This percentage ranged from a low of 22% in 1988 to a high of 32% in 1995 and closed the period in 2009 at 25% (figure 11). From 1980 through the mid-1990s the juvenile arrest rate fluctuated more than the adult rate, decreasing then increasing while the adult rate stayed within a limited range. Between 1995 and 2009 the juvenile and the adult arrest rates both fell. As a result, over the 30-year period from 1980 to 2009, the arrest rates for robbery declined substantially for both juveniles (down 40%) and adults (down 34%), and were near their lowest level in 2009. Over the 30-year period, an average of 40% of all arrests for robbery were white arrests, 59% were black arrests, and the remaining 1% were AIAN and API arrests. On average, the black arrest rate for robbery was 10 times the white rate. The black arrest rate was 10 times the white rate in 1980, rose to 13 times the white rate in 1989, and then declined to 8 times the white rate in 2009. At the peak in 1989, black arrests were 64% of all robbery arrests; in 2009 this proportion declined to 55%, which was nearly its lowest level in the 30-year period. The disparity between black and white arrest rates lessened over time because the decline in the black arrest rate was greater than the decline in the white rate (figure 12). From 1980 to 2009, both the white and the black arrest rates for robbery peaked around 1990 and declined to a relatively low level in 2009. Between 1990 and 2009, the white arrest rate for robbery fell 26% while the black rate fell 50%. The absolute magnitude of these declines is important to understand. Between 1990 and 2009, the white robbery arrest rate (arrests per 100,000 persons in the racial group) fell from 30 to 22. The black rate fell from 340 to 171. In terms of absolute difference, the decrease in the black robbery arrest rate was about 20 times the decrease in the white rate. Aggravated assault The UCR defines aggravated assault as an unlawful attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury. This type of assault usually is accompanied by the use of a weapon or by means likely to produce death or great bodily harm. It excludes simple assaults: crimes in which no to the victim. In the 30-year period between 1980 and 2009, arrests for aggravated assault peaked in 1995 (figure 13). From 1980 to 1995 the rate increased 75% and then it declined; by 2009 it was just 12% above its 1980 level. Between 1980 and 2009, on average, female arrests made up 17% of arrests for aggravated assault. This proportion increased over the period, from 12% in 1980 to 22% in 2009 (figure 14). The male arrest rate in 1980 was 8 times the female arrest rate, and by 2009 it had fallen to 4 times the female rate. Between 1980 and their peak year of 1995, arrest rates increased significantly for both males (up 63%) and females (up 150%), but the growth in the female rate was much greater. Between 1995 and 2009, the arrest rate for both males (down 40%) and females (down 19%) declined, but the female rate declined less. As a result, the male arrest rate for aggravated assault in 2009 was back at its 1980 level, while the female rate in 2009 was more than double its 1980 level. Between 1980 and 2009, juvenile arrests made up an average of 14% of all aggravated assault arrests; this percentage ranged from 12% to 16% over the period (figure 15). The general pattern of arrest rate growth and decline was similar for juveniles and adults; both peaked in the mid-1990s and returned to near their 1980 levels by 2009. The arrest rate for aggravated assault was higher for juveniles (up 93%) than for adults (up 69%) between 1980 and 1995. It then declined more for juveniles (down 45%) than for adults (down 35%) from 1995 to 2009. As a result, in 2009 the juvenile arrests rates for aggravated assault (up 6%) and the adult rate (up 10%) were both near but above their 1980 levels. Over the 30-year period, on average, 61% of all arrests for aggravated assault were white arrests, 37% were black arrests, and the other 2% were AIAN and API arrests. On average, the black arrest rate for aggravated assault was 4 times the white rate, although it grew to 5 times the white rate in 1988 and fell back to 3 times the white rate in 2009 (figure 16). The increase in the black arrest rate (54%) was greater than the increase in the white rate (31%) between 1980 and 1988. However, the white arrest rate increased more between 1988 and 1995, and both the white and the black rates in 1995 were about 75% above their 1980 levels. Between 1995 and 2009 both rates fell, but the black rate declined to a greater degree. As a result, in 2009 the black arrest rate for aggravated assault was 6% below its 1980 level (and at its lowest point of the 30-year period), while the white arrest rate was 21% above its 1980 level. Simple assault The UCR defines simple assault as an assault or attempted assault that does not involve a weapon or no serious or aggravated injury results to the victim. Stalking, intimidation, coercion, and hazing are included in this category of offense. As with aggravated assault, the simple assault arrest rate increased substantially from 1980 to the mid-1990s (figure 17). However, the growth in simple assault arrests was much greater than the growth in aggravated assault arrests. Between 1980 and 1995, while the aggravated assault arrest rate increased 75%, the simple assault arrest rate increased 125%. From the mid-1990s through 2009, both the aggravated and simple assault rates declined, but not to the same degree. By 2009 the aggravated assault rate had fallen to 12% above its 1980 level. In sharp contrast, the simple assault arrest rate declined after the mid-1990s, but this decline erased only a relatively small portion of the earlier increase. In 2009, the simple assault arrest rate was double what it had been in 1980. In 1980 there were 18 simple assault arrests for every 10 aggravated assault arrests, which gradually increased from 1980 to 2009. By 2009 there were 31 simple assault arrests for every 10 aggravated assault arrests. The change in male and female arrest rates for simple assault differed markedly over the 30-year period (figure 18). Both grew substantially from their lows in 1980 to 1997, but the growth in the female arrest rate (up 268%) was substantially more than the growth in male arrest rate (up 116%). Between 1997 and 2009, while the male arrest rate declined, the female rate remained relatively constant. In 2009 the male arrest rate ended the 30-year period 69% above its 1980 level, while the 2009 female arrest rate was nearly four times its 1980 level (an increase of 281%). In 1980, females arrests for simple assault were 14% of all simple assault arrests; by 2009 this proportion had grown to 26%. This increase in the female involvement in simple assault arrests was similar to the increased female involvement in aggravated assault arrests. The simple assault arrest rates grew substantially for both juveniles (up 152%) and adults (up 133%) from the early 1980s to their peaks in 1997 (figure 19). Between 1997 and 2009 both rates declined, erasing just a portion of the earlier increase. In 2009, the adult rate was 93% above its 1980 level, and the juvenile rate was 115% above its 1980 level. This large increase in both the juvenile and adult simple assault arrest rates over the 30-year period contrasts sharply with the aggravated assault arrest rates, which had both returned to very near their 1980 levels by 2009. Over the 30-year period the simple assault arrest trends were very similar across racial groups (figure 20). The arrests rates for each group peaked around 1997, with similar increases between 1980 and 1997. After these large increases, the period from 1997 through 2009 saw relatively moderate declines, and all racial groups ended the period in 2009 with simple assault arrest rates far above their 1980 levels. As a result, the racial profile of simple assault arrests in 2009 (White increased 66%; blacks, 32%; AIAN, 1%; and API, 1%) was very similar to the profile in 1980. Burglary The UCR defines burglary as unlawful entry into a structure (home, apartment, barn, church, factory, garage, or school) to commit a felony or a theft. Thefts from automobiles or coin-operated machines (non-structures) and shoplifting from commercial establishments (lawful entries) are classified larceny-thefts, not burglaries. A larceny-theft may be an element of a burglary (a person enters a home and steals property), but an arrest for such crimes is classified as a burglary using the UCR's hierarchy rule. The burglary arrest rate declined substantially and rather 1980, 6% of all burglary arrests were female arrests. By 2009, 15% of all burglary arrests were female arrests (figure 22). A study of the male and female arrest rate trends gives insight into this changing proportion. From 1980 to 2009 the male arrest rate for burglary declined substantially (falling 61%), while the female rate remained relatively constant. As a result, the female proportion of burglary arrests increased, even though the female arrest rate for burglary did not. Both the juvenile (down 72%) and the adult (down 44%) arrest rates for burglary fell substantially between 1980 and 2009, although juveniles showed a greater decline (figure 23). As a result, the juvenile proportion of burglary arrests declined from 45% in 1980 to 25% in 2009. On average, from 1980 to 2009 the black arrest rate for burglary was 3 times the white arrest rate, the AIAN arrest rate was equal to the white rate, and the API arrest rate was less than half the white rate (figure 24). Unlike for other crimes, the black-to-white arrest rate ratio changed little over the period. The burglary arrest rate trends for whites and for blacks were very similar. Between 1980 and 2009 the burglary arrest rates declined by more than half for whites (56%) and for blacks (58%). Larceny-theft The UCR defines larceny-theft as unlawfully taking, carrying, leading, or riding away with property from the possession or constructive possession of another. Larceny-theft includes shoplifting, bicycle theft, theft of motor vehicle parts and accessories, pocketpicking, or the stealing of any property or article that is not taken by force and violence or by fraud. Embezzlement, confidence games, forgery, check fraud, etc., are excluded. Motor vehicle theft is also excluded in this arrest statistic. The larceny-theft arrest rate increased 24% from 1980 to its peak in 1989 (figure 25). It then declined, reaching its low in 2006 at 44% below its 1989 peak. Between 2006 and 2009 the arrest rate increased 20%. Yet even with this increase, the 2009 larceny-theft arrest rate was still 33% below its peak rate in 1989 and 17% below its 1980 level. The male arrest rate trend mirrored the overall larceny-theft arrest rate trend, but the female arrest rate trend did not (figure 26). Both the male and the female arrest rates for larceny-theft increased between 1980 and 1989, and the increase in the arrest rate was greater for females (up 32%) than for males (up 21%). Both rates fell to their lows in 2006, with the male arrest rate (down 50%) declining more than the female rate (down 31%) declined between 1989 and 2006. Between 2006 and 2009 the female arrest rate for larceny-theft increased substantially more (up 40%) than the male rate increased (up 8%). With the female pattern of greater increases and a smaller decline, the cumulative effect from 1980 to 2009 was a 35% drop in the male arrest rate for larceny-theft while the female arrest rate ended the period 28% higher than it began. In 1980, 29% of all arrests for larceny-theft were female arrests; by 2009 this proportion had grown to 43%. In 1980 juvenile arrests were 38% of all larceny-theft arrests; by 2009, this proportion had fallen to 24% (figure 27). Between 1980 and 1997 the juvenile arrest rate for larceny-theft remained relatively constant during a period in which the adult arrest rate fluctuated. (The adult rate increased 37% between 1980 and 1989, and then returned nearly to its 1980 level.) Between 1997 and 2006, the arrest rates for larceny-theft declined for both juveniles (down 47%) and adults (down 26%). After reaching their lows in 2006, both rates increased from 2006 to 2009, with the adult rate (up 22%) increasing more than the juvenile rate (up 14%). As a result, the juvenile arrest rate for larceny-theft ended the 30-year period 40% below its 1980 level, while the 1980 and the 2009 adult arrest rates were similar. In 2009, 68% of all arrests for larceny-theft were white arrests, 29% were black arrests, and the remaining 3% were AIAN and API arrests (figure 28). These proportions translated into a black arrest rate for larceny-theft in 2009 that was 2.5 times the white rate. This proportion gradually declined from a level of 3.5 in the early 1980s. The disparity between the white and black arrest rates lessened because the black arrest rate declined more (30%) than the white rate (11%) from 1980 to 2009. White and black larceny-theft arrest rates both reached their low points of the 30-year period in 2006 and increased similarly in the period from 2006 to 2009. Motor vehicle theft The UCR defines motor vehicle theft as the theft or attempted theft of a motor vehicle. A motor vehicle is self-propelled and runs on a land surface and not on rails. Motorboats, construction equipment, airplanes, and farming equipment are specifically excluded from this category. Thefts of these items would be larceny-thefts. In the 30-year period the arrest rate for motor vehicle theft peaked in 1989, as it did for larceny-theft (figure 29). Between its relative low level in 1983 and its peak in 1989, the motor vehicle theft arrest rate increased 81%. After 1989 the arrest rate generally declined, with some years of stability from the late-1990s to the mid-2000s. By 2009, the motor vehicle theft arrest rate fell 71% from its peak in 1989 to its lowest level in the 30-year period, and to a level less than half of what it was in 1980. From 1980 to 2009, the relative involvement of females in motor vehicle theft arrests increased (figure 30). In 1980, 9% of motor vehicle theft arrests were female arrests; by 2009 this proportion had increased to 18%. This change occurred due to the larger decline in male arrests over the period. Between 1980 and 1989 both the male and the female arrest rates for motor vehicle theft increased, although the increase in the arrest rate was greater for females (up 79%) than for males (up 49%). From 1989 to 2005, while the male arrest rate declined 51%, the female arrest rate for motor vehicle theft remained relatively constant (down 6%). From 2005 to 2009, rates for both males (up 47%) and females (down 46%) declined similarly. Overall, between 1980 and 2009 the male arrest rate for motor vehicle theft dropped 61%, while the female rate fell 9%. In 2009 the male arrest rate for motor vehicle theft was well below its level 30 years earlier, while the female arrest rates in 1980 and 2009 were similar. The juvenile portion of motor vehicle theft arrests declined substantially between 1980 and 2009 (figure 31). In 1980, 45% of all arrests for motor vehicle theft were juvenile arrests; by 2009 this proportion had fallen to 24%. The juvenile and the adult arrest rate trends for motor vehicle theft followed a similar overall pattern over the 30-year period, although the changes in the juvenile arrest rate were more dramatic. From 1983 to their peak in 1989, both arrest rates increased, but the increase in the rate was greater for juveniles (122%) than for adults (62%). From 1989 to 2009, both rates declined substantially; the adult rate declined 64%, and the juvenile rate declined 82%. In 2009, both the juvenile and the adult arrest rates for motor vehicle theft were at their lowest levels in the 30-year period; however, because the juvenile rate (down 73%) declined more than the adult rate (down 43%) did between 1980 and 2009, the juvenile portion of all motor vehicle theft arrests was cut nearly in half. In 2009, 61% of motor vehicle theft arrests were white arrests, 36% were black arrests, and the other 3% were AIAN and API arrests (figure 32). The motor vehicle theft arrest rate for each race was at its lowest level in the 30-year period in 2009. The white and black arrest rates both peaked in 1989. The period from 1989 to 2009 saw large declines in both the white (down 68%) and black (down 77%) arrest rates. Throughout this period the black arrest rate for motor vehicle theft averaged four times the white arrest rate. Weapon law violations The UCR defines weapon law violations as violations of laws or ordinances that prohibit the manufacture, sale, purchase, transportation, possession, concealment, or use of firearms, cutting instruments, explosives, incendiary devices, or other deadly weapons. Attempts to violate these laws are included. The UCR's hierarchy rule classifies an arrest into this category only when the weapon law violation is the most serious charge in the arrest. Arrests for murder with a firearm, rape with a deadly weapon, armed robbery, aggravated assault with a weapon, or carjacking with a gun (even though these crimes involve a weapon) would not be classified as a weapon law violation arrest in the UCR arrest statistics. The arrest rate for weapon law violations increased 38% between 1980 and 1993 (figure 33). The arrest rate then fell from its 1993 peak, and by 2000 it reached a level 23% below that of 1980. While the arrest rate increased moderately in the middle of the following decade, it never returned to the level of 1980. It reached its lowest level of the 30-year period in 2009, 46% below its peak in 1993 and 26% below its 1980 level. On average, from 1980 through 2009, 92% of all weapon law violation arrests were male arrests, with little year-to-year change (figure 34). While the male arrest rate for weapon law violations was an average of 12 times greater than the female arrest rate, the male and female arrest rate trends roughly paralleled each other over the period. Both increased after 1980, peaked in the mid- 1990s, and declined so that by 2009 the male and female arrest rates for weapon law violations were at their lowest levels in 30 years. Over the 30-year period 20% of all weapon law violation arrests were juvenile arrests (figure 35). The annual proportion varied from 14% to 24%. While the adult arrest rate grew 22% between 1980 and 1993, the juvenile rate increase was 5 times greater (up 120%). Between 1993 and 2009 both rates declined. The adult rate fell so significantly that it ended the period in 2009 at 34% below its 1980 level. The decline in the juvenile arrest rate for weapon law violations erased almost all of its earlier increase, ending the 30- year period 10% above its 1980 level. In 2009, 58% of weapon law violation arrests were white arrests, 41% were black arrests and the remaining arrests were AIAN and API arrests (figure 36). These percentages translated into a black arrest rate that was 4 times greater than the white rate in 2009. This ratio remained relatively constant throughout the period, except for the years from the late-1980s to the mid-1990s. During this time, the black arrest rate for weapon law violations increased more than the white arrest rate did, resulting in a ratio of 5 black arrests to 1 white arrest. In 2009 the weapon law violation arrest rate for each racial group was at or near its lowest level in the 30-year period. Drug abuse violations The UCR defines drug abuse violations as violations of laws that prohibit the production, importation, distribution, possession, or use of certain controlled substances (marijuana, opium, and cocaine and their derivatives, and synthetic narcotics). The UCR divides drug abuse violation arrests into two general categories: (1) possession or use, and (2) sale or manufacture. From 1980 to 2009, both the number and the relative proportion of these two drug arrest categories changed substantially. It is important to view the two types of arrests both separately and in relation to each other to understand the pattern of drug arrests in the U.S. Overall, between 1980 and 2009, the arrest rate for drug possession or use more than doubled in the U.S. (figure 37). This arrest rate increased substantially in the 1980s, up 89% between 1980 and 1989. It declined over the next two years and then resumed its gradual increase, reaching its peak for the 30-year period in 2006, 162% above its 1980 level. Then the rate declined between 2006 and 2009, resulting in an overall increase of 122% from 1980 to 2009. From 1980 to 1989, the increase in the arrest rate for drug sale or manufacture (210%) was twice as great as the increase in the rate for drug possession or use (89%) (figure 41). While the drug possession or use arrest rate continued to increase, the drug sale or manufacture arrest rate was nearly cut in half (down 43% over the next 20 years). As a result, the drug sale or manufacture arrest rate in 2009 was 77% above its 1980. The differing arrest rate trends can be seen in the changing proportion of all drug abuse violation arrests that were for drug sale or manufacture. In 1980, 22% of all drug abuse violation arrests were for drug sale or manufacture. This proportion reached its peak in 1991 at 36%. As the arrests for drug sale or manufacture fell and arrests for drug possession or use increased, the proportion of drug sale or manufacture arrests declined to 19% in 2009. About 4 of 5 drug abuse violation arrests in the U.S. in 2009 were for drug possession or use. In 1980, 13% of all arrests for drug possession or use were female arrests (figure 38). This proportion increased to 19% in 2009. Both the male and female arrest rate trends for drug possession or use generally mirrored the overall trend described above; however, between 1980 and 2009, while the male arrest rate doubled (up 104%), the female arrest rate for drug possession or use tripled (up 225%). In 1980, 14% of all arrests for drug sale/manufacture were female arrests (figure 42). This proportion increased to 17% in 2009. Both the male and female arrest rates for drug sale or manufacture doubled between 1980 and 1989, with increases of 205% and 237%. Over the next 20 years, both rates declined, although the female rate fell less. As a result, the male arrest rate for drug sale or manufacture in 2009 was 68% above its 1980 level, while the female rate was 123% above its 1980 level. Juvenile and adult arrest trends for drug possession or use differed over the 30-year period (figure 39). Between 1980 and 1989 the adult arrest rate for drug possession or use doubled (up 113%), while the juvenile arrest rate fell (down 25%). Both rates fell in the next two years and then rose substantially. Between 1991 and 1997 the adult arrest rate increased 63%, while the juvenile arrest rate for drug possession or use increased a remarkable 250%. In 1980, 21% of all drug possession or use arrests were juvenile arrests; by 1991 this proportion had fallen to 7%. Although the juvenile proportion of arrests increased to 14% in 1997, it was still far from its 1980 level. The growth the overall arrest rate for drug possession or use between the late 1990s and the peak in 2006 was due in an increase in adult arrests; the juvenile arrest rate did not increase during this period. Overall, between 1980 and 2009, while the juvenile arrest rate for drug possession or use grew 33%, the adult arrest rate increased 138%. In 2009, 11% of all arrests for drug possession or use were juvenile arrests. In contrast to the trends in drug possession or use arrests, the juvenile and adult arrest trends for drug sale or manufacture were more similar over the 30-year period (figure 43). Juveniles were involved in an average of 10% of all arrests for drug sale or manufacture. The proportion increased somewhat in the mid-1990s to a high of 13% in 1996. The arrest rates for drug sale or manufacture increased substantially for both juveniles (up 163%) and adults (up 210%) between 1980 and 1989. The adult rate fell gradually after its 1989 peak through 2009, dropping a total of 43%. Over this same period the juvenile arrest rate for drug sale or manufacture declined a total of 50%; however, unlike the adult trend, the juvenile arrest rate experienced a temporary increase during the mid-1990s before continuing its downward slide. Over the entire 30-year period from 1980 to 2009, the increase in the arrest rate for drug sale or manufacture was greater for adults (up 77%) than for juveniles (up 31%), a pattern consistent with that of drug possession or use. In 1980 the black arrest rate for drug possession or use was about twice the white arrest rate; by 1989 the disparity had increased to 4 black arrests to 1 white arrest (figure 40). Between 1980 and 1989, the white arrest rate for drug possession or use increased 56%, while the increase in the black arrest rate was four times greater (up 219%). Both the white and black rates declined in 1990 and 1991; afterwards both generally increased. By 2009 the black rate had reached a level near that of 1989 and was 205% above its 1980 level. In contrast, after 1991, the white arrest rate quickly surpassed its 1989 level and continued to increase so that by 2009 it had reached a level 102% above its 1980 level. In all, during the 30-year period from 1980 to 2009, the white arrest rate of drug possession or use doubled and the black arrest rate tripled. The black arrest rate ended the period at 3 times the white arrest rate. Overall, the racial disparity in arrests for drug sale or manufacture was greater than for drug possession or use. In 1980, the black arrest rate was about 4 times greater than the white rate (figure 44). The large increase in these arrests between 1980 and 1989 was disproportionately the result of increases in black arrests. Over this 10-year period, the white arrest rate for drug sale or manufacture increased 127%, while the black arrest rate increased 363%. In 1989 more than half (52%) of all persons arrested for drug sale or manufacture were black. Both white and black arrest rates for drug sale or manufacture declined after 1989. Between 1989 and 2009, the decline in the rate was greater for blacks (59%) than for whites (27%). As a result, both white and black arrest rates for drug sale or manufacture ended the 30-year period in 2009 substantially above their 1980 levels (66% versus 90%). The black arrest rate in 2009 was about 4 times the white rate, similar to the disparity that had existed in 1980. Methodology The Criminal Justice Information Services (CJIS) Division of the FBI provided the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) with the set of annual Age, Sex, and Race (ASR) Arrest Master Files for the years 1980 through 2009. Each of these annual files holds counts of the reported arrests from each law enforcement agency that submitted its arrest data for the complete 12-month period. The files also contain an estimate of the population served by each agency. The FBI classifies law enforcement agencies into nine population groups based on the estimated annual population and the nature of the community that the agency serves. Over the 30-year period, on average, 61% of law enforcement agencies in the UCR annually reported complete 12-month arrest counts. Over the 30-year period, the 12-month reporters served an average of 79% of the U.S. resident population. The population coverage was greater than the proportion of agencies reporting because larger agencies reported at a higher rate than smaller agencies did. On average, over the 30-year period, agencies annually reported 80% of all arrests estimated to have occurred in the U.S. The estimation procedures used in this bulletin were designed to develop the offense and demographic attributes of the 20% of arrests that the FBI estimated occurred in the nonreporting law enforcement agencies. An assessment of the coverage of the annual samples can be found in table 2. In the first step of the estimation process, the annual 12-month arrest counts were summed for all law enforcement agencies within each of the nine population groups. Two tables were produced for each population group with arrest counts at the most detailed demographic levels supported by the data. These two table shells were * Offense (in 33 offense categories) by age of arrestee (in 22 age groups) by sex (in two categories--male and female) * Offense (using 33 offense categories) by age of arrestee (in two age categories--juvenile and adult) and race (in four race categories--white, black, AIAN, and API). Next, the cells in these 18 tables (i.e., two shells for each of nine strata) were each weighted by a factor equal to the total population of all law enforcement agencies in the population group divided by the population of all reporting law enforcement agencies in the population group. Then, the nine Offense by Age by Sex tables were combined into one table, as were the nine Offense by Age by Race tables. Finally, the cells in these two tables were each multiplied by the ratio of the FBI's annual national offense-specific arrest estimate divided by the sum of all cells in the table with that offense. This transformed each of these table cells into a national estimate for that cell's demographic subgroup. This process made all of the annual arrest count estimates for the subgroups internally consistent with the FBI's published national estimates. Arrest rates were calculated using national resident populations estimates for the various subgroups developed by the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics. UCR counting rules Less than half of all victims of violent and property crimes reported their crimes to law enforcement in 2009. For crimes known to law enforcement, less than half of violent crimes and less than a fifth of property crimes were cleared by arrest. Therefore, the annual number of arrests underestimates substantially the number of crimes committed. In addition, arrest trends cannot be assumed to parallel crime trends. Only if the many factors that influence arrest rates (e.g., victim reporting rates, crime clearance rates) were to remain constant over time, could trends in arrests be used to infer trends in crime. Finally, an annual arrest count should not be interpreted as the number of persons arrested in the year. Arrests could only be interpreted as a count of persons arrested if every person arrested in the year were arrested only once in the year--which is clearly untrue. In the end, the most appropriate way to interpret arrest statistics was as a measure of the flow of matters into law enforcement agencies. Readers should be aware of some nuances of the counting rules used by the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) to interpret properly arrest statistics: The hierarchy rule: The FBI requires law enforcement agencies to apply an offense hierarchy rule when reporting arrests. That is, if a person is arrested and charged with multiple offenses (e.g., robbery and possession of a weapon), the arrest is reported to the UCR as a single arrest for the most serious charge (in this case, robbery). As a result, more arrests are made for most crimes (e.g., weapon law violations) than are reflected in the UCR statistics. A single arrest for multiple crimes: A single arrest can cover many separate criminal acts. For example, a person may be arrested once and charged with stealing five automobiles over a period of several weeks. The UCR arrest statistic would be one arrest for motor vehicle theft. Multiple arrests for a single crime: A single crime can result in multiple arrests. If three juveniles steal an automobile and all are arrested, the UCR arrest statistics would show three arrests for motor vehicle theft. ---------------------------------------------------------- Office of Justice Programs * Innovation * Partnerships * Safer Neighborhoods * http://www.ojp.gov ---------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- The Bureau of Justice Statistics is the statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Justice. James P. Lynch is the director. This report was written by Howard Snyder. Alexia Cooper provided statistical review and verification of the report. Vanessa Curto and Jill Thomas edited the report, Barbara Quinn produced the report, and Jayne E. Robinson prepared the report for final printing under the supervision of Doris J. James. September 2011, NCJ 234319 This report in PDF and in ASCII and its related statistical data and tables are available at the BJS website: http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=2203. ---------------------------------------------------------- 9/16/2011/JER/ 12:15pm