U.S. Department of Justice
Office of Justice Programs
Bureau of Justice Statistics
Special Report
Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1994
June 2002, NCJ 193427
revised 7/19/02 th
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By Patrick A. Langan, Ph.D.
David J. Levin, Ph.D.
BJS Statisticians
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Highlights
Among nearly 300,000 prisoners released in 15 States in
1994, 67.5% were rearrested within 3 years. A study of
1983 releases estimated 62.5%.
* Within 3 years from their release in 1994--
67.5% of the prisoners were rearrested for a
new offense (almost exclusively a felony or
a serious misdemeanor)
46.9% were reconvicted for a new crime
25.4% were resentenced to prison for a new crime
51.8% were back in prison, serving time for
a new prison sentence or for a technical
violation of their release, like failing a drug
test, missing an appointment with their parole
officer, or being arrested for a new crime.
* Released prisoners with the highest rearrest
rates were robbers (70.2%), burglars (74.0%),
larcenists (74.6%), motor vehicle thieves (78.8%),
those in prison for possessing or selling stolen
property (77.4%), and those in prison for possessing,
using, or selling illegal weapons (70.2%).
* Released prisoners with the lowest rearrest
rates were those in prison for homicide (40.7%),
rape (46.0%), other sexual assault (41.4%), and
driving under the influence (51.5%).
* Within 3 years, 2.5% of released rapists
were arrested for another rape, and 1.2% of
those who had served time for homicide were
arrested for homicide.
* The 272,111 offenders discharged in 1994
had accumulated 4.1 million arrest charges
before their most recent imprisonment and
another 744,000 charges within 3 years of
release.
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This study of the rearrest, reconviction, and
reincarceration of prisoners tracked 272,111
former inmates for 3 years after their release
in 1994. The 272,111 -- representing two-thirds
of all prisoners released in the United States
that year -- were discharged from prisons in 15
States:
Arizona Maryland North Carolina
California Michigan Ohio
Delaware Minnesota Oregon
Florida New Jersey Texas
Illinois New York Virginia
Four measures of recidivism
The study uses four measures of recidivism:
rearrest, reconviction, resentence to prison,
and return to prison with or without a new
sentence. Except where expressly stated
otherwise, all four study measures of recidi-
vism --
* refer to the 3-year period following the
prisoner's release in 1994
* include both "in-State" and "out-of-State"
recidivism.
"In-State" recidivism refers to new offenses
committed within the State that released the
prisoner. "Out-of-State" recidivism refers to
new offenses in States other than the one
where the prisoner served time.
Three of the recidivism measures -- rearrest,
reconviction, resentence to prison -- are
based exclusively on official criminal records
kept in State and FBI criminal history
repositories. One recidivism measure --
return to prison with or without a new prison
sentence -- is formed from a combination of
records from criminal history repositories
plus prison records kept by State departments
of corrections.
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More highlights
* Within 3 years of their release in 1994,
61.7% of offenders sentenced for violence were
arrested for a new offense, though not necessarily
another violent offense. Property offenders had
the highest rearrest rate, 73.8%; released drug
offenders, 66.7%; and public-order offenders
(mostly those in prison for driving while
intoxicated or a weapons offense), a 62.2%
rate.
* Men were more likely to be rearrested
(68.4%) than women (57.6%); blacks (72.9%)
more likely than whites (62.7%); non-Hispanics
(71.4%) more likely than Hispanics (64.6%);
younger prisoners more likely than older ones;
and prisoners with longer prior records more
likely than those with shorter records.
* An estimated 7.6% of all released
prisoners were rearrested for a new crime
in a State other than the one that released
them. They were charged with committing
55,760 such crimes.
* No evidence was found that spending
more time in prison raises the recidivism
rate. The evidence was mixed regarding
whether serving more time reduces
recidivism.
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To an unknown extent, recidivism rates
based on State and FBI criminal history
repositories understate actual levels of
recidivism. The police agency making the
arrest or the court disposing of the case may
fail to send the notifying document to the
State or FBI repository. Even if the
document is sent, the repository may be
unable to match the person in the document
to the correct person in the repository or
may neglect to enter the new information.
For these reasons, studies such as this one
that rely on these repositories for complete
criminal history information will understate
recidivism rates.
Characteristics of the 272,111 released
prisoners
Of offenders released from prisons in
15 States in 1994:
91.3% were male
50.4% were white
48.5% were black
24.5% were Hispanic
44.1% were under age 30.
The 272,111 were in prison for a wide
variety of offenses, primarily felonies:
22.5% for a violent offense (for example,
murder, sexual assault, and robbery)
33.5% for a property offense (for example,
burglary, auto theft, and fraud)
32.6% for a drug offense (primarily drug
trafficking and possession)
9.7% for a public-order offense (roughly
33% driving while intoxicated/driving under
the influence, 32% a weapons offense, 8%
a traffic offense, 9% a probation violation,
and the remainder, such crimes as escape,
obstruction of justice, court offense, parole
violation, contributing to the delinquency of
a minor, bigamy, and habitual offender)
1.7% for some other offense (for example,
an unspecified felony or misdemeanor).
The average prison sentence length was
nearly 5 years. On average, the prisoners
were released after serving 35% of their
sentence, or about 20 months.
Seventy percent had 5 or more prior arrests
(not including the arrest that brought them
to prison), and half had 2 or more prior
convictions (not including the conviction
that resulted in their prison sentence).
For 56.4% of the released prisoners the
prison sentence they were serving when
released was their first-ever sentence to
prison. Almost 44% had served a prior
prison sentence.
Recidivism rates at different lengths
of time after release
Within the first 6 months of their release,
29.9% of the 272,111 offenders were
rearrested for a felony or serious
misdemeanor.
Within the first year the cumulative total grew
to 44.1% and within the first 2 years, 59.2%.
Within the first 3 years of their release, an
estimated 67.5% of the 272,111 released prisoners
were rearrested at least once.
The first year is the period when much of the
recidivism occurs, accounting for nearly
two-thirds of all the recidivism of the first 3
years.
Within the first year of release, an estimated
21.5% of the 272,111 released offenders
were reconvicted for a new felony or
misdemeanor; within the first 2 years, a
combined total of 36.4% were reconvicted;
and within the first 3 years, a combined total
of 46.9% were reconvicted.
Not all of the reconvicted prisoners were
sentenced to another prison term for their
new crime. Some were sentenced to confinement
in a local jail. Some were sentenced to neither
prison nor jail but to probation, which allowed
them to remain free in their communities but
under the supervision of a probation officer.
Within the first year of release, 10.4% of the
272,111 released prisoners were back in prison
as a result of a conviction and prison sentence
for a new crime; within the first 2 years, 18.8%;
and within the first 3 years, 25.4%.
The number of crimes committed
by the 272,111 released prisoners
How many crimes the 272,111 prisoners ever
committed -- both prior to and following
their release -- is unknown. The best
estimate available from official sources is
the volume of criminal charges found in
arrest records. The volume of arrest charges
is not the same thing as the volume of arrests.
The volume of arrests is the number of different
times a person was arrested. The volume of arrest
charges is the sum of the charges over all the
different times the person was arrested.
Arrest records provide an incomplete measure of
actual criminal activity. While people are
sometimes arrested for crimes they did not commit,
research indicates that offenders commit more
crimes than their arrest records show.**Alfred
Blumsteim and others, Criminial Careers and
"Career Criminals," vol. 1, Washington, DC:
National Academy Press, 1986, p. 55.**
New arrest charges following
release from prison
The 67.5% of releases rearrested within 3
years, or 183,675 persons, were charged
with 744,480 new crimes, or an average of
4 new crimes each. Over 100,000 were
new charges for a violent crime, including
2,900 new homicides, 2,400 new kidnapings,
2,400 rapes, 3,200 other sexual assaults,
21,200 robberies, 54,600 assaults, and nearly
13,900 other violent crimes.
During the 3-year follow-up period, the
released prisoners had new arrest charges
for 40,300 burglaries and about 16,000
thefts of motor vehicles. They also had
79,400 new charges for drug possession,
46,200 new charges for drug trafficking,
about 26,000 new charges for a weapons
offense (such as illegal possession of a
firearm), and approximately 5,800 new
charges for driving while under the
influence of drugs or alcohol.
The 744,480 new charges during the 3-year
follow-up period consisted of 688,720
committed in the same State that released
the prisoner plus 55,760 committed in other
States.
Old arrest charges prior to their
release from prison
Prior to entering prison, the 272,111
released prisoners had been arrested for
about 4.1 million crimes, as indicated by the
number of arrest charges in their criminal
history files. The 4.1 million included the
arrest charges that brought them to prison,
plus all previous charges. Roughly 550,000
of the 4.1 million prior arrest charges were
for a violent crime, including 18,000 prior
charges for homicide, 10,700 prior charges
for kidnaping, 44,400 prior charges for a
violent sex offense (21,600 rapes and
22,800 sexual assaults), and 172,300 prior
charges for robbery.
Combining new and old arrest
charges
Over their adult criminal history (both prior
to and following their release) the 272,111
offenders were arrested for nearly 4.9
million offenses altogether: 4.1 million
prior to release plus nearly 0.8 million after
release. That is an average of about 17.9
charges each.
A small fraction of offenders was responsible
for a large number of the 4.9 million crimes.
An estimated 6.4% of the prisoners were each
charged with 45 or more offenses before and
after their release in 1994. These high-rate
offenders accounted for nearly 14% of all
arrest charges.
Offenders with 25 or more charges represented
nearly 24% of all offenders but about 52% of
all charges.
By contrast, released prisoners with fewer
than 5 arrest charges represented nearly
14% of all prisoners but accounted for about
6.4% of the 4.9 million arrest charges.
How many of the 272,111 were ever
arrested for violence
Although 22.5% of the 272,111 were released
from prison in 1994 following an arrest and
conviction for a violent crime, 53.7% of all
the prisoners had a prior arrest for violence,
and 21.6% were arrested for a violent crime
after their release. Altogether, 67.8% of the
prisoners released in 1994 had a record of
violence.
The 67.8% is less than the sum of three
categories -- 22.5% in prison for violence
plus 53.7% with prior violence plus 21.6%
rearrested for violence -- because some
prisoners were in more than one category.
The fraction of all crimes that
released prisoners accounted for
The study cannot measure precisely what
fraction of all crime the former prisoners
were responsible for during the 3 years
following their release. The closest
measure is the fraction of all arrests for
seven serious crimes (murder, rape, robbery,
aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, and
motor vehicle theft). The number of "arrests"
is not the number of "arrest charges" but the
number of different days on which a person was
arrested.
In 13 States (because of missing data Florida
and Illinois could not be in this analysis)
from 1994 to 1997, 234,358 released prisoners
accounted for 140,534 arrests. During the
period in the 13 States, 2,994,868 adults were
arrested for the 7 serious crimes according to
the FBI.
Therefore, rearrests of the released prisoners
were 4.7% of all arrests for serious crime from
1994 to 1997.
According to arrest records compiled in this
study, of the 272,111 prisoners released in
1994, 719 were rearrested for homicide in
the 13 States in 1995. The FBI reports that
the number of adult arrests for homicide in
the 13 States in 1995 was 8,521 altogether.
The released prisoners accounted for 8.4% of
all the homicides in the 13 States in 1995.
Similarly, prisoners released in 1994 accounted
for 5.4% of all the arrests for rape in the 13
States in 1994 and 9.0% of all the arrests for
robbery in the 13 States from 1994 to 1997.
Although these percentages may seem small, they
are actually the product of high rates of criminality.
For example, to account for the 8.4% of 1995 homicides,
the 234,358 released prisoners were arrested for
homicide at a rate 53 times higher than the homicide
arrest rate for the adult population. Note also that
the 8.4% does not include homicides by
(a) prisoners released in 1995,
(b) prisoners released before 1994, or
(c) released prisoners who had crossed State
lines. The percentage of homicides attributable
to released prisoners would be substantially
greater if it included persons in categories
a, b, and c.
Released prisoners who crossed
State lines to commit new crimes
Some released prisoners crossed State lines
and committed new crimes. For example, some
of the prisoners released in Delaware in 1994
were arrested for new crimes in Pennsylvania
in 1995; Oregon released some prisoners in 1994
who were rearrested in 1996 for new crimes in
the State of Washington.
For 14 of the 15 States in the study (all but
New York), it was possible to determine what
fraction of the released prisoners had at least
one out-of-State arrest for a new crime. These
14 States account for 241,810 of the 272,111
released prisoners.
Within 3 years following their release, just
over 7.6% of the 241,810 -- or 18,460
released prisoners -- were rearrested for a
new crime committed in a State other than
the one that released them. The 7.6%
consisted of about 3.9% rearrested both in
the State that released them and in another
State (9,500 persons) plus an additional
3.7% only rearrested in another State (8,960
persons). The 18,460 are distinct from the
144,738 only rearrested in the State that
released them.
The 18,460 released prisoners were rearrested
for committing a total of 55,760 new crimes
outside the State that released them. An
estimated 5,858 of the new crimes were committed
in New York by prisoners who had been released in
the study's 14 other States. Other States most
affected by released prisoners crossing State
lines to commit crimes were Arizona (3,943 new
crimes by released prisoners from other States
in this study), California (3,819), Georgia
(3,447), Pennsylvania (2,907), Washington (2,805),
South Carolina (2,623), Nevada (2,288), Virginia
(2,152), Utah (1,919), Texas (1,633), and the
District of Columbia (1,596).
A variety of factors such as large size and
proximity to other States in the study
explains why States like New York, California,
and Arizona stand out. For example, a relatively
large number of the new arrests took place in
Georgia, which was not in the study. But Georgia
is close to two States in the study, North
Carolina and Florida.
Overall recidivism rate
for the 272,111
Rearrest -- An estimated 67.5% of the
272,111 released prisoners were rearrested
for a new crime (either a felony or a serious
misdemeanor) within 3 years following their
release.
Reconviction -- A total of 46.9% were
reconvicted in State or Federal court for a
new crime (a felony or misdemeanor).
Resentence -- Over a quarter -- 25.4% --
were back in prison as a result of another
prison sentence. Sentences to State or
Federal prisons but not to local jails are
included in the 25.4%.
Return to prison with or without a new prison
sentence -- A total of 51.8% were back in
prison because they had received another
prison sentence or because they had violated a
technical condition of their release, such as
failing a drug test, missing an appointment with
their parole officer, or being rearrested for a
new crime. The percentage returned to prison
solely for a technical violation, 26.4%, is
approximated by taking the difference between
the 51.8% and the 25.4%.
Recidivism rate according to
demographic characteristics
Gender Men were more likely than women
to be --
rearrested (68.4% versus 57.6%) reconvicted
(47.6% versus 39.9%) resentenced to prison for
a new crime (26.2% versus 17.3%) returned to
prison with or without a new prison sentence
(53.0% versus 39.4%).
Race Blacks were more likely than whites
to be --
rearrested (72.9% versus 62.7%) reconvicted
(51.1% versus 43.3%) returned to prison with
a new prison sentence (28.5% versus 22.6%)
returned to prison with or without a new prison
sentence (54.2% versus 49.9%).
Hispanic origin Non-Hispanics were more
likely than Hispanics to be --
rearrested (71.4% versus 64.6%) reconvicted
(50.7% versus 43.9%) returned to prison with
or without a new prison sentence (57.3% versus
51.9%).
However, Hispanics (24.7%) and non-Hispanics
(26.8%) did not differ significantly in terms
of likelihood of being returned to prison with
a new prison sentence.
Age The younger the prisoner when released,
the higher the rate of recidivism. For example,
over 80% of those under age 18 were rearrested,
compared to 45.3% of those 45 or older.
What they were in prison for
Of the 272,111 offenders, 1.7% were in prison
for homicide. Following their release, 40.7%
of these convicted homicide offenders were
rearrested for a new crime (not necessarily a
new homicide) within 3 years.
Convicted rapists made up 1.2% of the 272,111,
and 46.0% of these released rapists were rearrested
within 3 years for some type of felony or serious
misdemeanor (not necessarily another violent sex
offense).
Over a third of the released prisoners had
been in prison for a property offense (for
example, burglary, auto theft, fraud).
Released property offenders had higher
recidivism rates than those released for
violent, drug, or public-order offenses. An
estimated 73.8% of the property offenders
released in 1994 were rearrested within 3
years, compared to 61.7% of the violent
offenders, 62.2% of the public-order offenders,
and 66.7% of the drug offenders. Property
offenders also had higher rates of reconviction
and reincarceration than other types of
offenders.
Released prisoners with the highest
rearrest rates were --
robbers (70.2%)
burglars (74.0%)
larcenists (74.6%)
motor vehicle thieves (78.8%)
possessors/sellers of
stolen property (77.4%)
possessors/sellers of
illegal weapons (70.2%).
What these high-rate offenders have in
common is that they were all in prison for
what are generally thought of as crimes for
money. By contrast, many of those with the
lowest rearrest rates -- persons convicted of
homicide (40.7%), rapists (46.0%), other
sexual assaulters (41.4%), other violent
offenders (51.7%), and those convicted of
driving under the influence (51.5%) -- were
in prison for crimes not generally motivated
by desire for material gain.
An exception to the pattern was drug
traffickers. Their motive often is to make
money, yet their rearrest rate (64.2%) was
not above average.
What prisoners were rearrested for
Within the first 3 years of the release, of
the 272,111 prisoners --
21.6% were rearrested for a violent
offense
31.9%, for a property offense
30.3%, for a drug offense
28.3%, for a public-order offense.
These four percentages exceed 67.5% of
released prisoners overall because some
were rearrested for more than one type of
offense. For example, a released
Minnesota prisoner was rearrested for
receiving stolen property (a property
offense) in 1995 and for assault (a violent
offense) in 1996. Similarly, a released
Delaware prisoner was rearrested for
cocaine trafficking (a drug offense) in 1995
and then for aggravated assault (a violent
offense) in 1996.
Within the first 3 years of release, of the
272,111 prisoners --
0.8% were rearrested for homicide
0.6%, for rape
13.7%, for assault
9.9%, for burglary.
Within 3 years, 2.5% of the 3,138 released
rapists were rearrested for another rape,
and 1.2% of the 4,443 persons who had
served time for homicide were rearrested
for a homicide. Among other offenses, the
percentages rearrested for the same
category of offense for which they were just
in prison were --
13.4% of released robbers
22.0% of released assaulters
23.4% of released burglars
33.9% of released larcenists
11.5% of released thieves of motor
vehicles
19.0% of released defrauders
41.2% of released drug offenders.
Of the 3,138 released rapists --
overall 46.0% were rearrested for a new
crime within 3 years
18.6% were rearrested for a new violent
offense
2.5% were rearrested for another rape
8.7% were rearrested for a new non-sexual
assault
11.2% were rearrested for a drug offense.
Specialists
"Specialists" are prisoners who, after being
released, commit the same crime they were
just in prison for, while "non-specialists" are
those whose new offense differs from what
they were in prison for. Degrees of both
specialization and non-specialization can be
seen in the types of offenses the prisoners
were rearrested for following their release.
For example, a degree of specializing is
evident in the fact that, of all the different
offense categories, the released robber was
the one most likely to be rearrested for
robbery (13.4%), the released assaulter was
the one most likely to be rearrested for
assault (22.0%), the released burglar was
the one most likely to be rearrested for
burglary (23.4%), and the released motor
vehicle thief was the one most likely to be
rearrested for vehicle theft (11.5%).
There is also ample reason for viewing the
released prisoners as non- specialists. For
example, of the 4,443 prisoners who were in
prison for killing someone, more were
subsequently rearrested for a property
offense (10.8%) or drug offense (13.0%)
than were rearrested for another homicide
(1.2%). Of the 3,138 released rapists, more
were rearrested for something other than
rape (for example, 8.7% for nonsexual
assault and 6.2% for theft) than were
rearrested for another rape (2.5%).
Another way of investigating specialization
is with odds ratios. To illustrate, of the
3,138 released rapists, 78 (2.5%) were
rearrested for rape, and the remaining 3,060
were either rearrested for something else or
not rearrested. The odds of a released
rapist being rearrested for rape are ((78 /
3,138) / ((3,138-78) / 3,138)), or .0254902.
By contrast, of the 268,631 non-rapists (the
268,631 does not include 342 released
prisoners who were in prison for an unknown
offense), 1,639 were rearrested for rape, and
the remaining 266,814 were either rearrested
for something else or were not rearrested.
Their odds of being rearrested for rape are
((1,639 / 268,631) / ((268,631-1,639) / 268,631)),
or .0061387. The ratio of the two odds -- .0254902
/ .0061387 - indicates that a rapist's odds are
4.2 times a non-rapist's odds of being rearrested
for rape (.0254902 / .0061387 = 4.2).
Odds ratios are frequently misinterpreted.
The "4.2" does not mean that a rapist's odds
of committing a new rape are 4.2 times
"greater" than a non-rapist's odds. A
released rapist's odds of committing a new
rape are actually 3.2 (not 4.2) times greater
than a non-rapist's odds of a rape. Either
statistic -- 4.2 or 3.2 -- suggests a degree of
specializing among rapists. A degree of
specializing is evident in the statistics for
other offenses as well. For example, a
released robber's odds of rearrest for robbery
are 2.7 times a non-robber's odds of rearrest
for robbery. Put another way, a released
robber's odds of repeating his crime are 1.7
times "greater" than the odds of a non-robber
leaving prison and committing a robbery.
Similarly, the odds of a released violent
offender being rearrested for another violent
crime are 1.3 times the odds (or 30% "greater"
than the odds) of a nonviolent offender being
arrested for a violent crime.
Number of prior arrests
The number of times a prisoner has been
arrested in the past is a good predictor of
whether that prisoner will continue to commit
crimes after being released. Prisoners with
just 1 prior arrest have a 40.6% rearrest rate
within 3 years. With 2 priors, the
percentage rearrested is 47.5% . With 3 it
goes up to 55.2%. With additional priors, it
continues to rise, reaching 82.1% among
released prisoners with more than 15 prior
arrests in their criminal history record.
The number of past arrests a prisoner has
also provides a good predictor of how
quickly that prisoner will resume his or her
criminality after being released. A measure
of how quickly prisoners resume their
criminality can be constructed by combining
information from 1-year and 3-year arrest
rates.
To illustrate: Prisoners with 1 prior arrest
have a 20.6% 1-year arrest rate and a
40.6% 3-year rearrest rate. The first-year
rate (20.6%) is 51% of the cumulative rate at
the end of the third year (40.6%). In other
words, 51% of the recidivism of prisoners
with 1 prior arrest occurs within the first
year. The comparable figure for prisoners
with 2 priors is 55%; 3 priors, 58%; 4 priors,
59%; 5 priors, 62%. Among those with 16
or more prior arrests, 74% of their recidivism
occurs in the first year ( 61.0% / 82.1% = 74%).
The pattern here is clear: the longer the prior
record, the greater the likelihood that the
recidivating prisoner will commit another crime
soon after release.
Prior prison sentence
For 56% of the 272,111, the prison sentence
they were serving when released in 1994
was their first-ever prison sentence (not
shown in table). Of these "first- timers,"
63.8% were rearrested following their
release. Among those who had been in
prison at least once before, a higher
percentage -- 73.5% -- were rearrested.
Time served in prison
No evidence was found that spending more time
in prison raises the recidivism rate. The
evidence was mixed regarding the question
of whether spending more time in prison
reduces the recidivism rate.
Recidivism rates did not differ significantly
among those released after serving 6 months or
less (66.0%), those released after 7 to 12 months
(64.8%), those released after 13 to 18 months
(64.2%), those released after 19 to 24 months
(65.4%), and those released after 25 to 30
months (68.3%).
Those who served the longest time -- 61
months or more -- had a significantly lower
rearrest rate (54.2%) than every other
category of prisoners defined by time in
confinement.
Also, both those who served 31 to 36
months (62.6%) and those who served 37 to
60 months (63.2%) had a significantly lower
rearrest rate than those who served 25 to 30
months (68.3%).
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Comparison of recidivism rates for prisoners
released in 1983 and 1994
In a previous BJS study, 108,580 State prisoners
released from prison in 11 States in 1983 were
tracked for 3 years (Allen J. Beck and Bernard E.
Shipley, Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1983,
BJS Special Report, NCJ 116261, April 1989).
All 11 are among the 15 States
in this report.
Rearrest The overall rearrest rate rose significantly.
Of the 108,580 prisoners released in 1983, 62.5%
were rearrested within 3 years. Of the 272,111
released in 1994, the figure is 67.5%. Likewise,
there was a significant rise from 1983 to 1994
in the rearrest rate for released property
offenders (68.1% and 73.8%, respectively),
released drug offenders (50.4% and 66.7%),
and released public-order offenders (54.6%
and 62.2%). However, the rearrest rate did
not rise significantly for released violent
offenders (59.6% and 61.7%).
Reconviction The overall reconviction rate
did not change significantly. Among prisoners
released in 1983, 46.8% were subsequently
reconvicted; among those released in 1994, 46.9%.
Likewise, the reconviction rate did not change
between 1983 and 1994 for released violent
offenders (41.9% and 39.9%), released
property offenders (53.0% and 53.4%), and
released public-order offenders (41.5% and
42.0%).
The only significant change in reconviction
rates was the increase for drug offenders.
Among drug offenders released in 1983, 35.3%
were reconvicted for a new crime (not necessarily
another drug offense). Among those released
in 1994, the reconviction percentage was higher
-- 47.0%.
----------------------------------------------------------
Methodology
Step 1: Draw the sample
In 1998 BJS (the Bureau of Justice Statistics
in the U.S. Department of Justice) asked 15
State departments of corrections to
participate in a national study of recidivism
by supplying BJS with information on all
prison releases in 1994. (For Illinois,
releases were for fiscal year 1994 rather
than calendar year 1994.) The States are
large and diverse, collectively accounting for
the majority of prisoners released in 1994.
Eleven of the 15 were chosen because they
were in an earlier BJS recidivism study
(Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1983,
April 1989, NCJ 116261). Inclusion of the
11 makes possible a comparison of
recidivism rates between prisoners released
in 1994 and those released earlier.
Altogether the 15 States released 302,309
prisoners in 1994. The 15 States supplied
BJS with a computerized record on each of
the 302,309 containing the prisoner's name,
date of birth, sex, race, department of
corrections identification number, State
identification number, FBI identification
number, what offense he/she was in prison
for, how long the sentence was, the date the
prisoner entered the prison, the month and
day the prisoner was released in 1994, and
so forth. Using the 302,309 records, BJS
drew a sample for each State. The sample
totaled 38,624 out of the 302,309 released
prisoners.
For drawing the sample, each of the
302,309 was placed into 1 of 13 offense
categories corresponding to the conviction
offense that brought the prison term. (For
those with multiple conviction offenses, the
offense with the longest prison sentence
was designated as the conviction offense.)
For example, each of the 5,386 whose
conviction offense was homicide went into
the "homicide" category. Each of the 10,510
convicted violent sex offenders was placed
in the "rape/sexual assault" category.
Each of the 13 categories was sampled
within each State. A target set for each
category determined the size of the sample.
For the homicide category, the target in
each State was a sample of 80 released
homicide offenders. For rape/sexual
assault, the target was all the violent sex
offenders. For robbery, the target for each
State was a sample of 180 released
robbers.
A major deviation from the targeted sample sizes
occurred for California; it was necessary to double
sample sizes to improve the precision of estimates.
In other major deviations, all the released prisoners,
not a sample of them, in Delaware and Minnesota were
selected to be in the database.
To extrapolate from the sample to the
universe from which the sample was drawn,
each case was assigned a weight corresponding
to the inverse of the probability of selection.
For example, the 80 sampled Florida homicide
offenders were 80 out of 362 homicide offenders
released in Florida in 1994. The inverse of
their probability of selection was 362/80, or
4.525. Each sampled homicide offender in
Florida therefore represented 4.525 released
Florida homicide offenders.
Step 2: Obtain criminal history records
from States that released prisoners
BJS contacted the State agency that held
criminal history files and asked for the
computerized "RAP" sheet (Record of Arrest
and Prosecution) on each prisoner sampled
from the State. Using individual identifiers
(not including fingerprints) supplied by BJS
to match released prisoners to criminal
history files, these agencies provided BJS
with computerized RAP sheets on 37,647
(97%) of the 38,624 released prisoners.
Among other things, these RAP sheets
typically contained the person's name, date
of birth, gender, race, date of each arrest in
the State, each arrest charge (designated by
the penal code and/or a literal version of the
penal code) and level (felony or misdemeanor),
date of each court adjudication, each adjudicated
offense and level, each court outcome (guilty
or not guilty), and sentence (prison, jail,
probation, sentence length).
RAP sheets do not provide a complete
record of every instance where a person
was arrested or prosecuted in the State.
Arrests and prosecutions of juveniles are
generally not included. Arrests and
prosecutions are routinely included for
felonies or serious misdemeanors but not for
petty offenses (such as minor traffic
violations, drunkenness, and vagrancy).
The latest year covered in the RAP sheets
varied by State, depending on when the
sheets were sent to BJS. All RAP sheets
covered all of 1997. Many went beyond
1997.
Step 3: Obtain criminal history records
from FBI
After receiving a State's RAP sheets, BJS
asked the FBI for the computerized RAP
sheets it had on the sampled prisoner. The
FBI identification numbers from the department
of corrections (on 29,053 releases) or from
criminal history repositories (on an additional
2,695 releases) helped the FBI to match sampled
prisoners to criminal history records in the
FBI database called "Triple I," or "III".
Without the number, the FBI performed matches
using other identifiers. BJS supplied the FBI
with the FBI identification number, name, date
of birth, and other identifiers on 35,985 of the
38,624 prisoners. (The 35,985 did not include
New York's 2,639 prisoners because New York
law prevented BJS from supplying the FBI with
identifiers.) The FBI supplied BJS with RAP
sheets on 34,439 (96% of the 35,985 released
prisoners).
Although the 34,439 computerized RAP
sheets contained records of all arrests and
prosecutions, the BJS study used only the
out-of-State records of arrests and
prosecutions that took place outside the
State that released the prisoner. The
in-State records in the FBI RAP sheets were
not used because in-State records were
already available in the RAP sheets
supplied by the State that released the
prisoner. The unique value of the FBI RAP
sheets was the out-of-State records (both
prior to and following release) they
contained on arrests and prosecutions.
A least one RAP sheet was found on 38,049
(nearly 99%) of the 38,624 prisoners. For
34,037 (88%), a RAP sheet was found in
both repositories (the percentage would
have been greater than 88% had New
York's released prisoners been included).
Step 4: Create the study database
The information obtained from the 3 sources
-- the 15 departments of corrections, the 15
criminal history repositories, and the FBI --
was combined into a single database. The
database is a rectangular file with 6,520
variables on 38,624 released prisoners. Of
the 6,520 variables, 6,435 document a
prisoner's entire adult criminal history
record: each arrest date and any court
records of conviction or nonconviction
arising from the arrest that day. Arrests are
arranged from the earliest arrest date to the
latest. The database documents a maximum of
99 separate arrest dates. (For the 10 prisoners
out of the 38,624 who were arrested on more than
99 separate dates - the maximum was 175 for
one person -- the database documents their 99
latest.)
The database identifies the total number of
offenses the person was charged with on
each day of arrest, what each offense was,
the level of each offense (felony versus
misdemeanor), and other characteristics of
each offense. If the person was arrested for
more than three offenses that day, only the
three most serious -- as determined by a
hierarchy of seriousness -- are separately
identified.
The hierarchy defines felonies as more
serious than misdemeanors. Within these
levels, for arrests and prosecutorial charges,
the hierarchy from most to least serious is
as follows: homicide, rape/other sexual
assault, robbery, aggravated assault,
burglary, larceny/ motor vehicle theft, fraud,
drug trafficking, drug possession, weapons
offense, driving under the influence, other
public-order, and other.
For each arrest date, the database also
documents any court adjudications that
resulted from the arrest that day. The date
of the adjudication is recorded, along with
the number of adjudicated charges, what the
separate adjudicated offenses were, the
level of each offense, how each charge was
disposed of (convicted, not convicted), how
each offense was sentenced (prison, jail,
probation, sentence length), and other
details about each offense. If the person
was charged in court with more than three
offenses on the adjudication date, only the
three most serious -- as determined by a
hierarchy of seriousness -- are separately
identified. The hierarchy defines charges
resulting in conviction as more serious than
charges resulting in non-conviction. For
each of those categories, felony charges are
defined as more serious than misdemeanor
charges, within the levels of the previously
described hierarchy of offense seriousness.
Adding North Carolina arrests to the
database
Sometimes in RAP sheets for North Carolina
prisoners, the date of arrest in a
custody record submitted by correctional
authorities did not match a date on any
arrest record for that person. In such cases,
BJS created an arrest record using the
arrest date from the custody record. This
was the only instance in which an imputed
value appeared in the database.
Adding information to the database to
identify technical violators
Court records in State and FBI RAP sheets
indicated that 25.4% of released prisoners
were back in prison with a new prison
sentence. To document how many were
back for any reason (either a new sentence
or a parole violation), data were obtained
from the National Corrections Reporting
Program (NCRP) that identifies all persons
entering prison in a year. Individual
identifiers (for example, Department of
Corrections identification number, date of
birth, sex, race) were used to match
sampled prisoners to persons entering
prison according to NCRP data.
Because of incomplete NCRP data in New
York, additional information on prison
returns was obtained from custody records
in New York State RAP sheets. Based on
three sources --
1. courts records in State and FBI RAP
sheets for nine States,
2. NCRP records for nine States, and
3. custody records in New York State RAP
sheets -- 51.8% of released prisoners in the
nine States were back in prison for either a
new prison sentence or a technical violation.
The percentage returned to prison solely for
a technical violation (26.4%) is approximated
by taking the difference between the 51.8% and
the 25.4%.
New York State custody records did not always
distinguish prison returns from jail returns.
Consequently, some persons received in New York
jails were probably mistakenly classified as
prison returns. Also, the 51.8% return-to-
prison rate is heavily affected by the inclusion
of one large State, California, with a relatively
high rate. When California is excluded, the return-
to-prison rate falls to 40.1%.
Step 5: Data analysis
This report is based on 33,796 of the
38,624 sampled prisoners released in
1994. Persons selected for inclusion had
to meet all four of these criteria:
1. A RAP sheet on the prisoner was found
in the State criminal history repository.
2. The released prisoner was alive through
the 3-year follow-up period. As a result of
this requirement, 133 prisoners were
excluded.
3. The prisoner's sentence (or, as it is
called in the database, the "total maximum
sentence length") was greater than 1 year
(missing sentences were treated as greater
than 1 year).
4. The prisoner's 1994 release was not
recorded by the State department of
corrections as any of these: release to
custody/detainer/warrant, absent without
leave, escape, transfer, administrative
release, or release on appeal.
Weighted, the 33,796 prisoners meeting the
4 selection criteria represent 272,111
prisoners released in the study's 15 States
in 1994. Correctional practitioners might
refer to the sampled prisoners with the
shorthand term "releases with sentences
greater than a year." The 272,111 are an
estimated two-thirds of all the Nation's
"releases with sentences greater than a
year" in 1994.
Note on missing court dates
in FBI RAP sheets
FBI RAP sheets often failed to contain the
date of adjudication. When the data was not
reported, for analysis purposes only, BJS
temporarily assigned a court date based on
the arrest date in the arrest record. National
statistics indicate that there are 173 days on
average from arrest to adjudication.
Therefore, during analysis, court records
without a court date were temporarily
assigned a date 173 days past the date of
arrest.
Definition of 3-year follow-up period
For analytic purposes, "3 years" was defined
as 1,096 days from the day of release from
prison. Any rearrest, reconviction, or
re-imprisonment occurring after 1,096 days
from the 1994 release was not included. A
conviction after 1,096 days was not counted
even if it resulted from an arrest within the
period.
Comparing recidivism rates
For virtually every number in the report there
is a margin of error arising from the fact that
the number is based on a sample rather
than a complete enumeration. For example,
the estimate that 67.5% of all released
prisoners were rearrested within 3 years has
a margin of error (or 95%- confidence
interval) of approximately plus or minus 1
percentage point. In this report where the
text states or implies that one recidivism rate
is higher or lower than another, the difference
had been tested and found to be "statistically
significant," meaning it was an unlikely result
of sampling. The 95%-confidence intervals used
to test differences between recidivism rates were
obtained from statistical software (called
"SUDAAN") designed for estimating sampling error
from complex sample surveys. Standard errors
used to construct 95%-confidence intervals are
shown in appendix tables 3 and 4.
Where this report compares these recidivism rates
to those for prisoners released in 1983, the 95%-
confidence intervals for 1994 recidivism rates were
used as the 95%-confidence intervals for 1983 rates
which were no longer available.
Offense definitions
All offense categories except homicide
include attempts.
Violent offenses: homicide, kidnaping,
rape, other sexual assault, robbery,
assault and other violent.
Homicide: Murder is (1) intentionally
causing the death of another person without
extreme provocation or legal justification or
(2) causing the death of another while
committing or attempting to commit another
crime.
Nonnegligent (or voluntary) manslaughter is
intentionally and without legal justification
causing the death of another when acting
under extreme provocation. The combined
category of murder and nonnegligent
manslaughter.
Negligent (or involuntary) manslaughter is
causing the death of another person through
recklessness or gross negligence, without
intending to cause death. Includes vehicular
manslaughter, but excludes vehicular
murder (intentionally killing someone with a
motor vehicle), which should be classified as
murder).
Kidnaping: the unlawful seizure,
transportation, or detention of a person
against his or her will, or of a minor without
the consent of his or her guardian. Includes
forcible detainment, false imprisonment,
abduction, or unlawful restraint. Does not
require that ransom or extortion be the
purpose of the act.
Rape: includes forcible intercourse (vaginal,
anal, or oral) with a female or male.
Includes forcible sodomy or penetration with
a foreign object (sometimes called "deviate
sexual assault"); excludes statutory rape or
any other nonforcible sexual acts with a
minor or with someone unable to give legal
or factual consent.
Other sexual assault: (1) forcible or violent
sexual acts not involving intercourse with an
adult or minor, (2) nonforcible sexual acts
with a minor (such as statutory rape or
incest with a minor), and (3) nonforcible
sexual acts with someone unable to give
legal or factual consent because of mental
or physical defect or intoxication.
Robbery: the unlawful taking of property
that is in the immediate possession of
another, by force or the threat of force.
Includes forcible purse snatching, but
excludes nonforcible purse snatching.
Assault: Aggravated assault includes (1)
intentionally and without legal justification
causing serious bodily injury, with or without
a deadly weapon or (2) using a deadly or
dangerous weapon to threaten, attempt, or
cause bodily injury, regardless of the degree
of injury, if any. Includes attempted murder,
aggravated battery, felonious assault, and
assault with a deadly weapon.
Simple assault: intentionally and without
legal justification causing less than serious
bodily injury without a deadly or dangerous
weapon, or attempting or threatening bodily
injury without a dangerous or deadly
weapon.
Other violent: includes offenses such as
intimidation, illegal abortion, extortion,
cruelty towards a child or wife, hit-and-run
driving with bodily injury, and miscellaneous
crimes against the person.
Property offenses: burglary, larceny, motor
vehicle theft, arson, fraud/
forgery/embezzlement, stolen property, and
other property.
Burglary: the unlawful entry of a fixed
structure used for regular residence,
industry, or business, with or without the use
of force, to commit a felony or theft.
Larceny: the unlawful taking of property
other than a motor vehicle from the
possession of another, by stealth, without
force or deceit. Includes pocket picking,
nonforcible purse snatching, shoplifting, and
thefts from motor vehicles. Excludes
receiving and/or reselling stolen property,
and thefts through fraud or deceit.
Motor vehicle theft: the unlawful taking of a
self-propelled road vehicle owned by
another. Includes the theft of automobiles,
trucks, and motorcycles, but not the theft of
boats, aircraft, or farm equipment (classified
as larceny/theft). Also includes receiving,
possessing, stripping, transporting, and
reselling stolen vehicles, and unauthorized
use of a vehicle (joyriding).
Arson: intentionally damaging or destroying
property by fire or explosion.
Fraud, forgery, and embezzlement: using
deceit or intentional misrepresentation to
unlawfully deprive a persons of his or her
property or legal rights. Includes offenses
such as check fraud, confidence game,
counterfeiting, and credit card fraud.
Stolen property: all types of knowingly
dealing in stolen property, such as receiving,
transporting, possessing, concealing, and
selling, excluding motor vehicle theft) and
illegal drugs.
Other property: includes possession of
burglary tools, damage to property,
smuggling, and miscellaneous property
crime.
Drug offenses: drug trafficking, drug
possession, and other drug offenses.
Drug trafficking: includes manufacturing,
distributing, selling, smuggling, and
possession with intent to sell.
Drug possession: includes possession of an
illegal drug, but excludes possession with
intent to sell.
Other drug offenses: includes offenses
involving drug paraphernalia and forged or
unauthorized prescriptions.
Public-order offenses: are those that violate
the peace or order of the community or
threaten the public health or safety through
unacceptable conduct, interference with
governmental authority, or the violation of
civil rights or liberties. In this study, persons
in prison in 1994 for "public-order" offenses
were roughly 33% driving while intoxicated/driving
under the influence, 33% weapons offense, 8%
traffic offense, and 9% probation violation.
Weapons offenses: unlawful sale, distribution,
manufacture, alteration, transportation, possession,
or use of a deadly or dangerous weapon or accessory.
Traffic offenses: illegal driving behaviors that
do not include vehicular manslaughter or
DUI/DWI.
DUI/DWI: driving under the influence and
driving while intoxicated.
Other public-order offenses: includes
probation or parole violation, traffic offenses
(not including DWI or DUI), escape,
obstruction of justice, court offenses,
nonviolent sex offenses, commercialized
vice, family offenses, liquor law violations,
bribery, invasion of privacy, disorderly
conduct, contributing to the delinquency of a
minor and miscellaneous public-order
offenses. In this study, persons in prison in
1994 for "other public-order" offenses were
roughly 25% probation violation, 24% traffic
offense (not including DWI or DUI), 12%
escape (including flight to avoid
prosecution),
9% obstruction of justice, and 6% court
offenses.
Other offenses: all offenses unlisted above.
-----------------------------------------
The Bureau of Justice Statistics is the
statistical agency of the U.S. Department
of Justice. Lawrence A. Greenfeld is acting
director.
Patrick A. Langan, Senior Statistician, and
David J. Levin, Statistician, both of BJS,
analyzed the data and wrote and verified
this report. Jodi M. Brown, a former BJS
statistician, assisted in data processing.
Data and assistance in interpreting criminal
histories were contributed by the Information
Technology Management Section of the
FBI's Criminal Justice Information Services
Division and officials of departments of
corrections and criminal history repositories
in Arizona, California, Delaware, Florida,
Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota,
North Carolina, New Jersey, New York,
Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia. Gene
Lauver assisted in data collection and
processing.
June 2002, NCJ 193427
--------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------
This report in portable document format and
in ASCII, its tables, and related statistical
data are available at the BJS World Wide
Web Internet site:
To keep current on criminal justice statistics
at no cost, subscribe to e-mail notification of
the latest statistical releases from BJS, the
FBI, and the Office of Juvenile Justice and
Delinquency Prevention. To learn how to
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---------------------------------------------
End of file
05/21/02 ih
revised
7/19/02 th